2018 Technical Report for Eastern & Northern Georgian Bay stateofthebay.ca Acknowledgements Authors: Tianna Burke, David Bywater, Katrina Krievins, Becky Pollock (Georgian Bay Biosphere Reserve), Bev Clark (Aquatic Scientist), Carolyn Paterson (Environmental Consultant) Steering Committee: Aisha Chiandet, Severn Sound Environmental Association Christy Doyle, Muskoka Watershed Council Bob Duncanson, Georgian Bay Association Arunas Liskauskas, Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Upper Great Lakes Management Unit Bill Lougheed, Georgian Bay Land Trust Greg Mason, Georgian Bay Biosphere Reserve Andrew Promaine, Georgian Bay Islands National Park Julia Sutton, Eastern Georgian Bay Stewardship Council David Sweetnam, Georgian Bay Forever Rebecca Willison, Muskoka Watershed Council Other Contributors: David Barton, Ted Briggs, Graham Bryan, Anna DeSellas, Alice Dove, Chad Fraser, Camille Girard-Ruel, Todd Howell, Rob Hyde, Stephen James, Stan Judge, Arunas Liskauskas, Britney MacLeod, Greg Mayne, George Morgan, Scott Parker, Jason Ritchie, Daniel Rokitnicki-Wojcik, Peter Sale, Heather Sargeant, Keith Sherman, Jocelyn Sherwood, Walter Tabobondung. Data Sources: Anishinabek/Ontario Fisheries Resource Centre, Canadian Wildlife Service – Ontario Region Biodiversity Atlas, District of Muskoka, Eastern Georgian Bay Stewardship Council, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada Canadian Ice Service, Georgian Bay Forever, Lake Partner Program, Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Upper Great Lakes Management Unit, Muskies Canada Incorporated, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory CoastWatch, Prairie Climate Centre, Severn Sound Environmental Association, United States Environmental Protection Agency , United States Environmental Protection Agency Great Lakes National Program Office, United States Geological Survey, United States Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center. We acknowledge that the Georgian Bay Biosphere Reserve is situated in the ancestral and traditional territory of the Anishinabek people, who are the original owners and caretakers of the land. We honour the Huron Robinson Treaty of 1850, and stand in solidarity with those in whose territory we live and work, as friends, neighbours and colleagues. Compiled by the Georgian Bay Biosphere Reserve. © Georgian Bay Biosphere Reserve, 2018 i State of the Bay 2018 - Technical Report www.stateofthebay.ca Table of Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................ i List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ vi 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Total Phosphorus ...................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 5 2.2 What is measured? ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.3 How is it measured? ............................................................................................................................ 5 2.4 Why is it important? ........................................................................................................................... 8 2.5 What are the results?.......................................................................................................................... 9 2.6 Data gaps and research needs .......................................................................................................... 14 2.7 References ........................................................................................................................................ 15 3. Aquatic Ecosystem Health ...................................................................................................................... 18 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Lower food web ................................................................................................................................ 21 3.3 Prey fish ............................................................................................................................................. 44 3.4 Smallmouth bass ............................................................................................................................... 51 3.5 Northern pike .................................................................................................................................... 54 3.6 Muskellunge ...................................................................................................................................... 57 3.7 Walleye ............................................................................................................................................. 63 3.8 Lake trout .......................................................................................................................................... 82 3.9 Data gaps and research needs .......................................................................................................... 91 3.10 What can I do to help? .................................................................................................................... 94 3.11 Where can I learn more? ................................................................................................................ 95 3.12 References ...................................................................................................................................... 95 4. Coastal Wetlands .................................................................................................................................. 102 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 102 4.2 Coastal wetlands ............................................................................................................................. 102 4.3 Georgian Bay coastal wetlands ....................................................................................................... 104 4.4 Importance of coastal wetlands...................................................................................................... 105 4.5 Key threats to coastal wetlands ...................................................................................................... 106 ii State of the Bay 2018 - Technical Report www.stateofthebay.ca 4.6 Monitoring coastal wetland condition and trends over time ......................................................... 107 4.7 What are the results?...................................................................................................................... 111 4.8 Data gaps and research needs ........................................................................................................ 113 4.9 Where can I learn more? ................................................................................................................ 113 4.10 References .................................................................................................................................... 114 5. Landscape Biodiversity .......................................................................................................................... 117 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 117 5.2 Why is it important? ....................................................................................................................... 118 5.3 How is it measured? ........................................................................................................................ 120 5.4 What are the results?...................................................................................................................... 122 5.5 Data gaps and research needs ........................................................................................................ 136 5.6 References ...................................................................................................................................... 137 6. Climate Change ..................................................................................................................................... 140 6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 140 6.2 What is measured? ........................................................................................................................