Learning in carbon accounting and energy efficiency Copyright © 2009, Martin Weiss All rights reserved. Cover design: Martin Weiss Printing: Proefschriftmaken.nl ISBN: 978-90-8891-130-9 Learning in carbon accounting and energy efficiency Leren in het monitoren van koolstofstromen en energie-efficiëntie (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Lernen auf den Gebieten der Kohlenstoffbilanzierung und Energieeffizienz (mit einer Zusammenfassung auf Deutsch) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof. dr. J.C. Stoof, ingevolge het besluit van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op 7 december 2009 des namiddags te 12.45 uur door Martin Weiss geboren op 10 december 1976 te Suhl, Duitsland Promotor: Prof. dr. K. Blok Co-promotoren: Dr. M.K. Patel Dr. M. Junginger Für meine Eltern Elke und Berthold Contents 1 Introduction...........................................................................................1 1.1 Industrial manufacturing and energy consumption ........................................... 1 1.2 Non-energy use of fossil fuels and resulting emissions .................................... 5 1.3 Technological learning in energy demand technologies ................................... 8 1.4 Scope and outline of this thesis ...................................................................... 12 2 Applying bottom-up analysis to identify the system boundaries of non-energy use data in international energy statistics .............. 13 Abstract................................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Background information.................................................................................. 15 2.3 Methodology and data sources ........................................................................ 19 2.4 Results ............................................................................................................. 24 2.5 Discussion........................................................................................................ 31 2.6 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 34 Acknowledgements................................................................................................. 35 Appendix................................................................................................................. 35 3 Non-energy use of fossil fuels and resulting carbon dioxide emissions: bottom-up estimates for the world as a whole and for major developing countries......................................................... 39 Abstract................................................................................................................... 39 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 40 3.2 Methodology and data sources ........................................................................ 41 3.3 Results ............................................................................................................. 48 3.4 Discussion........................................................................................................ 55 3.5 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 58 Acknowledgements................................................................................................. 58 Appendix................................................................................................................. 59 4 Non-energy use and related carbon dioxide emission in Germany: a carbon flow analysis with the NEAT model for the period of 1990-2003 ..................................................................... 63 Abstract................................................................................................................... 63 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 64 4.2 Methodology and data sources ........................................................................ 66 4.3 Results ............................................................................................................. 71 4.4 Discussion........................................................................................................ 82 vii Contents Conclusions............................................................................................................. 85 Acknowledgements................................................................................................. 86 Appendix................................................................................................................. 87 5 Market diffusion, technological learning, and cost-benefit dynamics of condensing gas boilers in the Netherlands................. 91 Abstract................................................................................................................... 91 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 92 5.2 A short history of condensing gas boilers in the Netherlands ......................... 93 5.3 Methodology and data sources ........................................................................ 95 5.4 Results ............................................................................................................. 99 5.5 Discussion...................................................................................................... 109 5.6 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 112 Acknowledgements............................................................................................... 113 Appendix............................................................................................................... 114 6 Analyzing price and efficiency dynamics of large appliances with the experience curve approach .............................................. 117 Abstract................................................................................................................. 117 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 118 6.2 Methodology and data sources ...................................................................... 120 6.3 Results ........................................................................................................... 124 6.4 Discussion...................................................................................................... 130 6.5 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 137 Acknowledgements............................................................................................... 138 Appendix............................................................................................................... 139 7 A review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies....................................................................................... 141 Abstract................................................................................................................. 141 7.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 142 7.2 Methodology.................................................................................................. 143 7.3 Results ........................................................................................................... 146 7.4 Discussion...................................................................................................... 152 7.5 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 161 Acknowledgements............................................................................................... 162 Appendix............................................................................................................... 163 viii Contents 8 Discussion.......................................................................................... 167 8.1 Scope of this thesis ........................................................................................ 167 8.2 Non-energy use of fossil fuels....................................................................... 167 8.3 Technological learning in energy demand technologies ............................... 172 9 References......................................................................................... 177 Summary............................................................................................... 195 Samenvatting ........................................................................................ 201 Zusammenfassung................................................................................ 207 List of abbreviations and units ........................................................... 213 Acknowledgements .............................................................................. 215 Curriculum vitae.................................................................................