HEARING ON TECHNOLOGY, TRADE, AND MILITARY-CIVIL FUSION: CHINA’S PURSUIT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, NEW MATERIALS, AND NEW ENERGY HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FRIDAY, JUNE 7, 2019 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2019 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, CHAIRMAN ROBIN CLEVELAND, VICE CHAIRMAN Commissioners: ANDREAS A. BORGEAS KENNETH LEWIS JEFFREY L. FIEDLER MICHAEL A. MCDEVITT HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN HON. JAMES M. TALENT ROY D. KAMPHAUSEN MICHAEL R. WESSEL THEA MEI LEE LARRY M. WORTZEL The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the “Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003,” Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109- 108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law Nol. 110-161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December); as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, P.L. 113-291 (December 19, 2014) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission). The Commission’s full charter is available at www.uscc.gov. ii June 26, 2019 The Honorable Chuck Grassley President Pro Tempore of the Senate, Washington, DC 20510 The Honorable Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House of Representatives, Washington, DC 20515 Dear Senator Grassley and Speaker Pelosi: We are writing to notify you of the Commission’s June 7, 2019 public hearing on “Technology, Trade, and Military-Civil Fusion: China’s Pursuit of Artificial Intelligence, New Materials, and New Energy.” The Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Pub. L. No. 106-398 (as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015 § 1259b, Pub. L. No. 113-291) provides the basis for this hearing. At the hearing, the Commissioners received testimony from the following witnesses: Jeffrey Ding, China lead for the Center for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford; D.Phil. Candidate, University of Oxford; Helen Toner, Director of Strategy at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology; Elsa Kania, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security; Research Fellow at CSET; Richard Silberglitt, Ph.D., Senior Physical Scientist, RAND Corporation; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School; Dan Coughlin, Vice President of Composites Market Development, American Composites Manufacturers Association; Alan Hill, Government Relations Partner, National Graphene Association; President, J.A.Hill Group, LLC; Joanna Lewis, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Science, Technology and International Affairs, Georgetown University; Jessica Lovering, Director of Energy at the Breakthrough Institute, Ph.D. Student at Carnegie Mellon University; and James Greenberger, Co-founder and Executive Director of NAATBatt International. This hearing examined China’s development of artificial intelligence, new materials, and energy storage, renewable energy, and nuclear power. It assessed China’s capabilities in producing and commercializing these technologies vis-à-vis the United States and its ambitions to export these technologies and shape their global governance in ways that disadvantage the United States. The hearing also considered China’s potential military application of these technologies and strategic implications for the United States. The full transcript of the hearing, prepared statements, and supporting documents are posted to the Commission’s website, www.uscc.gov. Members and the staff of the Commission are available to provide more detailed briefings. We hope these materials will be helpful to the Congress as it continues its assessment of U.S.-China relations and their impact on U.S. security. The Commission will examine in greater depth these issues and the others in our statutory mandate this year. Our 2019 Annual Report will be submitted to Congress in November 2019. Should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to have your staff contact one of us or our Congressional Liaison, Leslie Tisdale Reagan, at 202-624-1496 or [email protected]. Sincerely yours, Carolyn Bartholomew Robin Cleveland Chairman Vice Chairman cc: Members of Congress and Congressional Staff iii CONTENTS FRIDAY, JUNE 7, 2019 TECHNOLOGY, TRADE, AND MILITARY-CIVIL FUSION: CHINA’S PURSUIT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, NEW MATERIALS, AND NEW ENERGY Opening Statement of Commissioner Lee (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................6 Prepared Statement ...........................................................................................................8 Opening Statement of Vice Chairman Cleveland (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................9 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................10 Panel I: Panel I: U.S.-China Competition in Artificial Intelligence: Policy, Industry, and Strategy Panel I Introduction by Vice Chairman Cleveland (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................11 Statement of Jeffrey Ding China lead for the Center for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford; D.Phil. Candidate, University of Oxford ...................................12 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................15 Statement of Helen Toner Director of Strategy at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology ....................................................................................................................26 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................29 Statement of Elsa Kania Adjunct Senior Fellow, Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security; Research Fellow at CSET .....................................................40 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................43 Panel I: Question and Answer..........................................................................................100 Panel II: Maintaining Commercial and Technical Leadership in New Materials Panel II Introduction by Commissioner Lee (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................119 Statement of Richard Silberglitt, Ph.D. Senior Physical Scientist, RAND Corporation; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School ..........................................................................................................................120 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................122 Statement of Dan Coughlin Vice President of Composites Market Development, American Composites Manufacturers Association ..........................................................................................135 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................138 Statement of Alan Hill iv Government Relations Partner, National Graphene Association; President, J.A.Hill Group, LLC .................................................................................................................155 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................158 Panel II: Question and Answer ........................................................................................168 Panel III: China’s Capabilities and Export Ambitions in New Energy, Nuclear Power, and Energy Storage Panel III Introduction by Vice Chairman Cleveland (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................184 Statement of Joanna Lewis, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Science, Technology and International Affairs, Georgetown University ....................................................................................................................185 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................188 Statement of Jessica Lovering Director of Energy