Annual Security Assessment Report 2016 Acknowledgement The credit for conducting research & analyses as well as preparing this Annual Security Assessment Report 2016 goes to tireless efforts of the entire Research and Publication team of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS). In this regard, efforts of my research team comprising Mr. Abdullah Khan Ms Mehwish Rana Lodhi, and Mr Arfa Mehmood deserve special appreciation and commendation. Special thanks and acknowledgment to Mr. Akram Zaki (Chairman, PICSS) and Major General (retd) Muhammad Saad Khattak (Director General, PICSS) for their review of report and providing necessary guidance to PICSS research team. Last, but not least, I would thank Mr Hassan Aziz for his administrative support and Mr Ayaan Raza for technical assistance in preparation of this annual report. Gul Dad Director Research & HR/ Senior Analyst Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), Islamabad © All Rights Reserved Annual Security Assessment Report 2016 Table of Contents Acknowledgement .......................................................................................................................... 1 Data Collection Methodology ......................................................................................................... 5 List of Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................... 8 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 9 Overall Security Situation/ National Security Profile .................................................................... 11 Countrywide Militant Attacks .................................................................................................... 13 Type of Militant Attacks – An Assessment ............................................................................. 16 Major Militant Groups ........................................................................................................... 24 Nationwide Security Forces Actions .......................................................................................... 32 Intelligence Based and Combing Operations ......................................................................... 34 Provincial Security Profile ............................................................................................................. 43 Security Situation in Balochistan ............................................................................................... 43 Security Situation in FATA .......................................................................................................... 47 Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtoonkha (KPK) ....................................................................... 51 Security Situation in Sindh ......................................................................................................... 54 Security Situation in Punjab ...................................................................................................... 57 Security Situation in Gilgit-Baltistan & Azad Jammu and Kashmir ............................................ 58 Security Situation in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) .............................................................. 58 Other Security Related Developments ......................................................................................... 59 Karachi Operation and Factionalism in MQM ........................................................................... 59 Prospects of DAESH’s Expansion in Pakistan ............................................................................. 62 National Action Plan: Assessment of its Execution ................................................................... 68 NACTA as a Lead Agency to Fight Militancy .............................................................................. 72 China-Pakistan Relations and Challenges to CPEC .................................................................... 74 Civil Military Relations – An Appraisal ....................................................................................... 78 Pakistan’s External Relations ......................................................................................................... 79 Indo-Pak Relations and Kashmir Issue – A Journey of Hope Ending in Despair ........................ 79 Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations and Afghan Reconciliation Process ......................................... 86 Iran-Pakistan Relations .............................................................................................................. 93 Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), Islamabad © All Rights Reserved Annual Security Assessment Report 2016 Pakistan-US Relations ................................................................................................................ 96 Pakistan-Russia Relations: Warming of Hearts .......................................................................... 99 Challenges, Trends, Future Projections & Recommendations .................................................... 101 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 104 List of Tables Table 1: Break up of overall violent incidents of the year 2016 ................................................... 12 Table 2: Regional Distribution of Militant Attacks in 2016 ........................................................... 15 Table 3: Types of Militant Attacks in 2016 .................................................................................... 16 Table 4: Province-wise breakup of Suicide Attacks in 2016 .......................................................... 19 Table 5: Regional distribution of IED-based attacks in 2016 ......................................................... 21 Table 6: Regional distribution of Physical Militant Assaults in 2016 ............................................. 22 Table 7: Province-wise breakup of Target Killings in 2016 ............................................................ 23 Table 8: Overall responsibilities claimed by militant groups 2016 ............................................... 24 Table 9: Geographical distribution of SFAs in 2016 ....................................................................... 34 Table 10: Monthly break up of militant Attacks in Balochistan .................................................... 45 Table 11: Type of Attacks in Balochistan in 2016 .......................................................................... 46 Table 12: Affected districts in Balochistan in 2016 ....................................................................... 46 Table 13: Break up of Attacks in Balochistan – Militants’ Claimed ............................................... 47 Table 14: Monthly break-up of militant Attacks in FATA ............................................................... 49 Table 15: Type of Attacks in FATA in 2016 ..................................................................................... 49 Table 16: Break up of Attacks in FATA – Militants’ Claimed .......................................................... 50 Table 17: Affected Agencies in FATA in 2016 ................................................................................. 51 Table 18: Monthly break-up of militant Attacks in KPK................................................................. 52 Table 19: Type of Attacks in KPK in 2016 ...................................................................................... 53 Table 20: Break up of Attacks in KPK – Militants’ Claimed............................................................ 53 Table 21: Affected Districts of KPK in 2016 ................................................................................... 54 Table 22: Monthly break up of militant attacks in Sindh and their human impact ...................... 55 Table 23: Type of Attacks in Sindh in 2016 .................................................................................... 56 Table 24: Break up of Attacks in Sindh – Militants’ Claimed ......................................................... 56 Table 25: Affected Districts of Sindh in 2016 ................................................................................ 57 Table 26: Monthly break up of militant attacks in Punjab and their human impact .................... 57 Table 27: Break up of Attacks in Sindh – Militants’ Claimed ......................................................... 58 Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), Islamabad © All Rights Reserved Annual Security Assessment Report 2016 List of Figures Figure 1: Overall Number of Incidents, Deaths and Injuries in 2016 - Monthly Trend ................. 12 Figure 2: Regional distribution of Overall Incidents – Percentage Share ...................................... 12 Figure 3: Overall Violent Incidents – Yearly Comparison since 2011 ............................................ 13 Figure 4: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks and resultant deaths/injuries since 2011 ......... 14 Figure 5: Militant attacks and resultant deaths/injuries in 2016 – Monthly Trend ...................... 14 Figure 6: Categories of deaths in Militant Attacks in 2016 – Percentage share ........................... 15 Figure 7: Geographical distribution of Militant Attacks