Consumer Discretionary / China 18 June 2015 Initiation: pockets of strength China Autos Sector • Even though overall 2015 PV sales growth is likely to slow to just Positive 8% YoY, demand growth for SUV/MPVs should remain strong Neutral (initiation) • Local brands trump the foreign JV brands; among the foreign JVs, we prefer luxury marque Mercedes-Benz Negative • Initiating coverage with a Neutral sector view; our stock pecking order is Geely, BAIC, BYD, GWM and GAC How do we justify our view? local brands in price-sensitive lower- We like Geely as we expect its net tier cities over 2015-16. profit to rebound sharply YoY in 2015, and because it is reducing its 2. SUV makers are cashing in. exposure to Russia. Long term, we In 2015-16, we expect the OEMs to expect Geely to become one of the Kelvin Lau launch more new SUV models, the strongest local brands in terms of (852) 2848 4467 segment in which we expect demand technology and quality. Among the [email protected] growth to be the strongest. We foreign JV brands, we like BAIC forecast SUV/MPV sales volumes for Motor (BAIC; 1958 HK, HKD9.30, Brian Lam 2015-16 to rise by 25-40% YoY (vs. a Buy [1]), due to the strong earnings (852) 2532 4341 3% YoY decline for sedans). Further contribution from Mercedes-Benz. [email protected] out, competition in the SUV segment is likely to intensify. We think BYD Company (BYD, ■ Investment case 1211 HK, HKD49.50, Outperform 3. Selective luxury JV brands We initiate coverage of the China [2]) will appeal to investors looking still shine. Autos Sector with a Neutral view. to play the NEV theme. Finally, our Among the foreign JV brands in Based on our regression analysis, we least preferred stock is GAC because China, we prefer European luxury forecast just 8% YoY growth in of its focus on mid-range sedans. (specifically Mercedes-Benz) over passenger vehicle (PV) sales volume the Japanese brands, as we see Benz in China for 2015 (vs. 10% for 2014 ■ Risks being less affected by the licence and 6% YTD). We expect the The major upside risks to our sector plate restrictions in top-tier cities. In economic slowdown and declining view would be: stronger-than- response to these new rules, we M2 growth to reduce buyers’ expected sales, especially for new SUV expect more affluent first- appetite for mid-range sedans over models. Further licence restrictions time/replacement buyers to jump to 2015-16. As for recent industry and price cuts are downside risks. better-quality cars and bypass mid- developments, we see the new- range sedans. registration restrictions now in place Key stock calls in tier-1 and tier-2 cities affecting ■ Catalysts New Prev. our 5 featured stocks to varying The main share-price catalysts Geely Automobile (175 HK) degrees. But we do see some pockets would be if monthly auto sales pick Rating Buy of strength. up in 2H15, in line with our Target 5.00 expectations. Any new government Upside 35.1% 1. Local OEMs looking secure, policies promoting new-energy BAIC Motor (1958 HK) especially in lower-tier cities. Rating Buy vehicles (NEV) would also likely For the most part, we prefer the local Target 12.00 drive share prices selectively. For the OEM brands such as Geely (175 HK, Upside 29% foreign JV brands, forex fluctuations HKD3.70, Buy [1]) and Great Wall BYD (1211 HK) could lower the cost of importing Motor (GWM; 2333 HK, HKD38.00, Rating Outperform components, which could boost Target 56.00 Hold [2]) over the foreign JV ones, investor sentiment. Upside 13.1% especially the mid-range Japanese Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) brands under Guangzhou ■ Recommendations Rating Sell Automobile Group (GAC; 2238 In order, our preferred stocks are: Target 6.20 HK, HKD7.37, Sell [5]), driven by Geely, BAIC, BYD, GWM and GAC. Downside 15.9% strong demand growth for economy Source: Daiwa forecasts. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 102 Consumer Discretionary / China 18 June 2015 Contents Investment thesis ........................................................................................................................ 4 Falling PV sales, but there are pockets of strength ................................................................. 4 Adapting to a slower pace ........................................................................................................... 8 Overall PV sales growth declining ........................................................................................... 8 Margin improvements, but for selected players only .............................................................. 9 Local brands: not created equal .............................................................................................. 11 Quality local brands emerging ................................................................................................ 13 SUVs still the focus over 2015-17 ............................................................................................ 14 Singling out China’s long-term winners .................................................................................... 16 What’s next for China’s automakers? ..................................................................................... 16 Battlefield should extend to overseas markets in the long run .............................................. 19 Fuel-consumption standards should raise entry barriers ...................................................... 21 Growth of related business .................................................................................................... 23 Valuations and recommendations ............................................................................................. 25 Sector expected to move in line with market over 12 months ............................................... 25 Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 26 Valuations: no longer cheap .................................................................................................. 26 Risks to our sector view .......................................................................................................... 27 Appendix: historical data for the China auto market ............................................................... 29 Company Section Geely Automobile .................................................................................................................... 35 BAIC Motor ............................................................................................................................. 47 BYD ..........................................................................................................................................59 Great Wall Motor .................................................................................................................... 73 Guangzhou Automobile Group .............................................................................................. 85 - 2 - Consumer Discretionary / China 18 June 2015 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg BAIC Motor 1958 HK 9.30 Buy 12.00 0.910 1.133 BYD 1211 HK 49.50 Outperform 56.00 0.529 1.089 Geely Automobile 175 HK 3.70 Buy 5.00 0.288 0.373 Great Wall Motor 2333 HK 38.00 Hold 39.90 3.771 4.571 Guangzhou Automobile Group 2238 HK 7.37 Sell 6.20 0.546 0.611 China Auto Sector (OEMs): key assumptions (YoY %) Sales volume (Units) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Geely 549,468 417,851 503,717 561,369 626,241 13.6% -24.0% 20.5% 11.4% 11.6% Greatwall 770,619 732,989 928,323 1,083,497 1,219,378 24.0% -4.9% 26.6% 16.7% 12.5% BAIC BJ Motor 202,280 309,468 464,202 603,463 724,155 159.3% 53.0% 50.0% 30.0% 20.0% BJ Benz 116,006 145,468 210,929 263,661 329,576 12.6% 25.4% 45.0% 25.0% 25.0% GAC GAC Self-owned 146,188 161,160 180,499 194,939 210,534 50.6% 10.2% 12.0% 8.0% 8.0% Guangqi Honda 435,479 480,060 561,670 645,921 697,594 37.6% 10.2% 17.0% 15.0% 8.0% GAC Toyota 303,088 374,108 404,037 436,360 471,268 21.2% 23.4% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% GAC Fiat 48,375 68,090 68,090 71,495 75,069 328.6% 40.8% 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% GAC Mitsubishi 43,036 63,199 78,999 90,849 104,476 1572.0% 46.9% 25.0% 15.0% 15.0% BYD Conventional 470,000 373,000 365,540 358,229 351,065 11.9% -20.6% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% NEV 3,142 20,859 59,404 107,972 144,035 n.a. 563.9% 184.8% 81.8% 33.4% (YoY %) ASP (CNY ) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Geely 52,246 52,024 56,186 60,119 64,327 2.6% -0.4% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% Greatwall 69,809 80,964 92,299 99,683 107,657 6.5% 16.0% 14.0% 8.0% 8.0% BAIC BJ Motor 33,852 40,178 44,195 46,405 48,725 -25.0% 18.7% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% BJ Benz 286,364 302,036 302,036 302,036 302,036 -0.6% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GAC GAC Self-owned 123,977 133,735 140,422 147,443 147,443 -5.3% 7.9% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% Guangqi Honda 134,191 124,586 118,357 112,439 112,439 -2.0% -7.2% -5.0% -5.0% 0.0% GAC Toyota 172,842 144,020 132,498 132,498 132,498 -4.6% -16.7% -8.0% 0.0% 0.0% GAC Fiat 104,429 100,076 95,072 95,072 95,072 -40.2% -4.2% -5.0% 0.0% 0.0% GAC Mitsubishi 90,841 118,325 136,073 142,877 142,877 -71.7% 30.3% 15.0% 5.0% 0.0% BYD 53,452 66,699 66,699 66,699 66,699 -0.4% 24.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (YoY %) Net profit (CNYm) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Geely 2,663 1,431 2,531 3,285 3,945 30.5% -46.3% 76.9%