JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT MINISTRY OF JIHAD-E-AGRICULTURE THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN THE STUDY ON INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT FOR ECOSYSTEM CONSERVATION OF THE ANZALI WETLAND IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN FINAL REPORT Volume III: SUPPORTING REPORT MARCH 2005 Photo : A. Bahri NIPPON KOEI CO., LTD. LIST OF VOLUMES Volume I ： Executive Summary Volume II ： Main Report Volume III ： Supporting Report Volume IV ： Data Book EXCHANGE RATE US$ 1 = IRR 8,652, Yen 100 = IRR 7,955 (as of June 30, 2004) THE STUDY ON INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT FOR ECOSYSTEM CONSERVATION OF THE ANZALI WETLAND FINAL REPORT Volume III： SUPPORTING REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS Part 1: Socio-economy Part 2: Hydrology Part 3: Wetland Ecological Management Part 4: Watershed Management Part 5: Wastewater Management Part 6: Solid Waste Management Part 7: Environmental Education Part 8: Institutional Development Part 9: Agriculture and Agricultural Chemical Control Part 10: Capacity Development Part 11: Initial Environmental Examination Part 1: Socio-economy Final Report, Volume III Part 1: Socio-Economy Supporting Report Table of Contents THE STUDY ON INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT FOR ECOSYSTEM CONSERVATION OF THE ANZALI WETLAND FINAL REPORT Volume III Supporting Report TABLE OF CONTENTS PART 1 SOCIO-ECONOMY Page CHAPTER 1 PRESENT SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF THE STUDY AREA ........................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 National Socio-Economy ................................................................................. 1-1 1.1.1 National Economy .......................................................................... 1-1 1.1.2 National Budget.............................................................................. 1-1 1.1.3 Domestic Price ............................................................................... 1-2 1.1.4 Population ...................................................................................... 1-3 1.1.5 Five-year Development Plan............................................................ 1-3 1.2 Regional Socio-Economy ................................................................................ 1-4 1.2.1 Administrative Division .................................................................. 1-4 1.2.2 Population ...................................................................................... 1-4 1.2.3 Regional Economy.......................................................................... 1-5 1.2.4 Household Income .......................................................................... 1-6 1.2.5 Provincial Budget in Guilan Province............................................... 1-7 CHAPTER 2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK ................................................ 2-1 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Population of the Study Area............................................................................ 2-1 2.3 Regional Economy .......................................................................................... 2-4 2.3.1 Agriculture..................................................................................... 2-4 2.3.2 Industry.......................................................................................... 2-4 2.3.3 Tourism.......................................................................................... 2-5 2.4 Major Development Plan ................................................................................. 2-6 2.4.1 Long Term Development Plan for Guilan Province 1996 – 2021 ........ 2-6 2.4.2 Third Five-Year Plan of Guilan Province 2000 - 2004 ....................... 2-6 2.4.3 Urban Development Plan for Rasht City........................................... 2-6 2.4.4 Urban Development Plan for Anzali City.......................................... 2-7 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd The Study on Integrated Management for Ecosystem Conservation of the Anzali Wetland i Final Report, Volume III Part 1: Socio-Economy Supporting Report Table of Contents 2.4.5 Urban Development Plan for Somehsara City ................................... 2-7 2.5 Future Economic Forecast................................................................................ 2-8 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT COST AND FINANCIAL PLAN........................................ 3-1 3.1 Conditions of Cost Estimate............................................................................. 3-1 3.2 Cost Estimate.................................................................................................. 3-1 3.3 Annual Cost Disbursement Schedule ................................................................ 3-2 CHAPTER 4 ECONOMIC EVALUATION............................................................... 4-1 4.1 Approach to the Economic Evaluation of the Proposed Master Plan.................... 4-1 4.2 Basic Assumptions for Economic Evaluation .................................................... 4-1 4.3 Values of the Anzali Wetland and Economic Benefit of the Wetland Ecological Management Plan......................................................... 4-2 4.4 Economic Benefit of the Watershed Management Plan...................................... 4-4 4.5 Economic Benefit of the Wastewater Management Plan.................................... 4-8 4.6 Economic Benefit of the Solid Waste Management Plan.................................... 4-10 4.7 Economic Benefit of Environmental Education and Institutional Plans................ 4-12 4.8 Economic Evaluation of the Master Plan........................................................... 4-12 4.8.1 Methodology of Benefit Valuation.................................................... 4-12 4.8.2 Economic Cost of the Projects ......................................................... 4-13 4.8.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis...................................................................... 4-13 4.9 Economic Evaluation by Contingent Valuation Method...................................... 4-18 CHAPTER 5 FINANCIAL EVALUATION............................................................... 5-1 5.1 General Principles ........................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Financial Sources ............................................................................................ 5-1 5.3 Basic Conditions for Financial Evaluation......................................................... 5-2 5.4 Financial Evaluation of the Proposed Management Plans ................................... 5-3 5.4.1 Overall Evaluation.......................................................................... 5-3 5.4.2 Financial Evaluation of the Wetland Ecological Management Plan..... 5-5 5.4.3 Financial Evaluation of the Watershed Management Plan .................. 5-5 5.4.4 Financial Evaluation of the Wastewater Management Plan................. 5-6 5.4.5 Financial Evaluation of the Solid Waste Management Plan ................ 5-8 5.4.6 Financial Evaluation of the Environmental Education Plan ................ 5-9 5.4.7 Financial Evaluation of the Institutional Plan for Implementation...... 5-10 5.5 Price Contingency ........................................................................................... 5-10 5.6 Suggested Preparations .................................................................................... 5-11 5.6.1 Application for the National Five-Year Development Plan................. 5-11 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd The Study on Integrated Management for Ecosystem Conservation of the Anzali Wetland ii Final Report, Volume III Part 1: Socio-Economy Supporting Report Table of Contents 5.6.2 Organizing Special Committees at National and Provincial Levels ..... 5-11 APPENDIX APPENDIX 1 RESULTS OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY ON ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION FOR ANZALI WETLAND WATERSHED AREA A1 - 1 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd The Study on Integrated Management for Ecosystem Conservation of the Anzali Wetland iii Final Report, Volume III Part 1: Socio-Economy Supporting Report Table of Contents List of Tables Page Table 1.1.1 Summary of the National Government Budget....................................... 1-2 Table 1.1.2 Breakdown of Government Budget in 2000 ........................................... 1-2 Table 1.1.3 Consumer Price Indices of Goods and Services...................................... 1-3 Table 1.2.1 Administrative Divisions in the Study Area ........................................... 1-4 Table 1.2.2 Population of Study Area by Township (Estimate for 2004) .................... 1-5 Table 1.2.3 Average Annual Income of Household in Guilan Province...................... 1-6 Table 1.2.4 Poverty Line of Urban Residents in Guilan Province.............................. 1-7 Table 1.2.5 Poverty Line of Rural Residents in Guilan Province............................... 1-7 Table 1.2.6 Summary of the Budget of Guilan Provincial Government...................... 1-8 Table 1.2.7 Expenditures from Provincial Budget by Executive Organization Related to M/P in 2002......................................................................... 1-8 Table 2.2.1 Summary of Population Forecast in the Study Area from 2005 to 2019.... 2-2 Table 2.2.2 Population Forecast of the Study Area from 2005 to 2019....................... 2-3 Table 2.3.1 Agricultural Targets during the Third Plan in Guilan Province ................ 2-4 Table 2.3.2 Planned Industrial Parks during the Third Development Plan in Guilan Province.............................................................................................