The Military Use of Space: A Diagnostic Assessment Barry D. Watts 1730F Rhode Island Avenue, NW, Suite 912 Washington, DC 20036 The Military Use Of Space: A Diagnostic Assessment by Barry D. Watts The Military Use of Space A Diagnostic Assessment by Barry D. Watts Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments February 2001 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent public policy re- search institute established to promote innovative thinking about defense planning and in- vestment strategies for the 21st century. CSBA’s analytic–based research makes clear the inextricable link between defense strategies and budgets in fostering a more effective and efficient defense, and the need to transform the US military in light of the emerging military revolution. CSBA is directed by Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich and funded by foundation, corporate and individual grants and contributions, and government contracts. 1730 Rhode Island Ave., NW Suite 912 Washington, DC 20036 (202) 331-7990 http://www.csbaonline.org CONTENTS PREFACE ............................................................................................................................ I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................ III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 1 I. OVERVIEW AND KEY JUDGMENTS ............................................................................... 5 II. HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE MILITARY VALUE OF NEAR-EARTH SPACE.......................... 25 III. THE CURRENT AMERICAN ADVANTAGE IN THE MILITARY USE OF NEAR-EARTH SPACE .... 37 IV. TRENDS, NON-TRENDS AND ASYMMETRIES ................................................................ 55 Satellite Trends ................................................................................................. 57 Launch Trends ................................................................................................... 65 Increasing Commercialization And The Near-Earth Global Commons ............. 74 A Key Asymmetry .............................................................................................. 84 Space Surveillance, Geodetic Data And Global Surveillance ........................... 88 Orbital Power Generation, Treaties And Weapons In Space ............................ 93 A Diagnostic Assessment................................................................................ 105 V. WEAPONIZATION, TRIGGER EVENTS, SLIPPERY SLOPES, AND POLICY CHOICES ............ 109 VI. IMPLICATIONS AND OBSERVATIONS ........................................................................ 121 VII. AFTERWORD ........................................................................................................ 127 GLOSSARY ..................................................................................................................... 129 APPENDIX I: A BROADER LOOK AT THE MILITARY GEOGRAPHY OF SPACE .............................. 135 APPENDIX II: SELECTED US GOVERNMENT SATELLITES........................................................ 138 APPENDIX III: CURRENT OR PLANNED COMMERICAL COMMUNICATIONS PROJECTS................... 140 APPENDIX IV: CURRENT COMMERCIAL LAUNCH COSTS ........................................................ 142 APPENDIX V: CURRENT OR IN-DEVELOPMENT REUSUAL LAUNCH VEHICLES............................. 143 Note to the reader: The pagination in this pdf file differs from the printed version of this report CSBA published in 2001. In addition, some of the figures have been modified and a few minor formatting changes made. FIGURES Figure 1 Altitudes And Orbit Types For Earth Satellites (Ignoring Differences In Or- bital Inclination) ...................................................................................................... 9 Figure 2: Annual Space Launches................................................................................ 15 Figure 3: Worldwide Commercial Revenues From Space Versus Worldwide Spending On Space By Governments.................................................................................... 17 Figure 4: Trends In Worldwide Commercial Space Revenues ..................................... 18 Figure 5: Selected Relationships in Near-Earth and Lunar Space Shown to Scale in Relation to Earth’s Diameter................................................................................. 24 Figure 6: DoD, NASA and Other US Government (USG) Spending On Space, 1959–98 ..................................................................................................... 38 Figure 7: US Government Spending on Space Compared to All Other Worldwide Spending/Revenues (Including US Commercial Revenues).................................. 40 Figure 8: US and USSR/CIS Military and Civilian Annual Space Launches.................. 40 Figure 9: The B-2’s GPS-Aided Targeting System ........................................................ 48 Figure 10: Active Satellites by Function and Altitude Band (Excluding Russian)....... 58 Figure 11: Space Shuttle Missions 1981–99 ................................................................ 66 Figure 12: Payloads Proposed for Launch 2000–05 ..................................................... 70 Figure 13: Worldwide Space-Launch Facilities............................................................ 72 Figure 14: A Concept for Global Precision Strike ........................................................ 73 Figure 15: Commercial Earth-Imaging Trends ............................................................. 76 Figure 16: 1-Meter Resolution Images of the Washington Monument and Reagan Na- tional Airport Taken by Space Imaging’s Ikonos-2 Satellite ................................ 77 Figure 17: Calculated Performance of a 24-Satellite SBL Constellation Against a Salvo of MRBMs from North Korea to Guam ....................................................... 103 Figure 18: Estimated Effects of Low-Yield, High-Altitude Nuclear Detonations on the Service Lives of Selected LEO Satellites............................................................ 111 PREFACE Andrew Krepinevich asked me to undertake this assessment on behalf of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment because he had believed that I could conduct the kind of net assess- ment Andrew W. Marshall has been doing in the Pentagon for nearly three decades. In this ca- pacity, Marshall is almost unique in his ability to take the long view of the core defense issues facing the US military services, the Joint Staff, and senior managers such as the secretary of de- fense. Thus, while our two primary aims were to assess the current state of military competition in near-earth space, and to say what can be said about how that competition may unfold over the next quarter century, we also had a tertiary goal in mind: to continue the diagnostic style of com- parative analysis pioneered by Marshall, who has been a mentor to both of us. There are differences between this assessment and most of those done by Marshall. The balance papers and assessment done in his Office of Net Assessment have usually been highly classified. They have also generally been written for the secretary of defense and a few other senior manag- ers in the Department of Defense. With a few exceptions, distribution of Marshall’s assessments has been fairly limited. By comparison, the present assessment of the military competition in near-earth space is unclassified and intended for wide distribution. The main analytic challenge in developing this assessment was that the military use of space is a vast topic—particularly if one begins to delve into technical details. Orbital mechanics and the economics of satellite versus fiber-optic telecommunications, for example, are complex subjects in and of themselves, and one could conceivably devote a number of pages to the fundamentals and complexities of each. A constant difficulty in developing this assessment, therefore, was fo- cusing on that small percentage of all that could be discussed which, when woven together into a whole, might give the reader genuine insight into the unfolding military competition in near- earth space. This report makes extensive use of Internet websites. Having long ago become habituated to re- lying on libraries and archives to do research, I was astonished at how much material pertaining to orbital space is now available “on-line,” even if one sticks mainly with US government, uni- versity, and corporate websites. The reader will find extensive references to Internet addresses throughout this report. When I began this project, I had not looked closely at the military use of space for some two decades. This circumstance had an unanticipated benefit: I was sufficiently out of date that I had to concentrate on the basic, first-order questions regarding the military use of near-earth space. The result, in the view of those who reviewed various drafts of this report, was a sense that I had managed to identify most of fundamental issues about this realm of military competition, thereby providing a useful and coherent framework for thinking about the subject. In the end, of course, I sought to do more than identify the central questions. Ultimately I sought to suggest answers based on evidence and careful analysis. I leave it to the reader to judge how successful I have been. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Erwin