EVALUATION OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC MEASURES FOR MASS TRANSPORTATION IN ANKARA A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY HIND FAHAD SAEED SHAHIN IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF URBAN POLICY PLANNING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT JULY 2021 Approval of the thesis: EVALUATION OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC MEASURES FOR MASS TRANSPORTATION IN ANKARA Submitted by HIND FAHAD SAEED SHAHIN in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Urban Policy Planning and Local Governments, the Graduate School of Social Sciences of Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Yaşar KONDAKÇI Dean Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Tarık ŞENGÜL Head of Department Department of Urban Policy Planning and Local Governments Prof. Dr. Emine Yetişkul ŞENBIL Supervisor Department of City and Regional Planning Examining Committee Members: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Hediye Tüydeş YAMAN(Head of the Examining Committee) Middle East Technical University Department of Civil Engineering Prof. Dr. Emine Yetişkul ŞENBIL (Supervisor) Middle East Technical University Department of City and Regional Planning Prof. Dr. Burcu Çıngı ÖZÜDURU Gazi University Department of City and Regional Planning PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name: Hind Shahin Signature: iii ABSTRACT EVALUATION OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC MEASURES FOR MASS TRANSPORTATION IN ANKARA Shahin, Hind M.S., Department of Urban Policy Planning and Local Governments Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Emine Yetişkul Şenbil July 2021, 143 Pages COVID-19 was labeled a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by WHO on the 30th of January 2020. Countries enacted measures to curb the spread of the virus, many of which resulted in limiting peoples’ mobility; mass transportation systems worldwide took the hardest hit. Thus, research emerged on the impact of COVID-19 on mass transit systems worldwide. This thesis analyzes COVID-19’s effect on Ankara’s mass transit through detailing the measures taken by the city and the effects those decisions had on its network. Similar to other research, the thesis analyses the objective effects the pandemic had on mass transit. It also focuses on the subjective effects of COVID-19 on the system - an under- researched topic- through investigating residents’ risk and efficacy perceptions of mass transit during the pandemic. Applying Protection Motivation Theory, a prominent health-risk behavioral model, literature review and an online survey were conducted to investigate the effects of COVID-19 on perceptions of mass transit in Ankara. iv Findings support the hypothesis that COVID-19 had an effect on mass transportation in Ankara in terms of objective metrics such as ridership levels, commute time, commute distance, waiting time, and number of transfers needed; peak hours was the only metric experiencing no change as a result of the pandemic. In terms of the subjective effects of COVID-19 on mass transit in Ankara, participants mostly reported close to neutral efficacy and risk perceptions. Finally, limitations include sample size and time period covered; Findings are true only if corroborated through further research. Keywords: Public Transport Perceptions, Covid-19, Protection Motivation Theory, Public Transport Journeys, Passenger Mobility Behavior. v ÖZ COVID-19UN ANKARADA TOPLU TAŞIMAYLA İLGİLİ YOLCU ALGILARINA ETKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASİ Shahin, Hind Yüksek Lisans, Kentsel Politika Planlaması ve Yerel Yönetimler Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Emine Yetişkul Şenbil Temmuz 2021, 143 sayfa Covid-19 (Yeni Koronavirüs Hastalığı) Salgını, DSÖ tarafından 30 Ocak 2020'de ‘Uluslararası Önem Arz Eden Halk Sağlığı Acil Durumu’ olarak ilan edildi ve ülkeler, virüsün yayılmasını engellemek için çeşitli önlemler almaya başladı. Bu önlemlerin çoğu, insanların hareketliliğini sınırlandırdı ki dünya çapında toplu taşıma sistemleri ağır bir darbe aldı. Bu doğrultuda Covid-19 Pandemisi’nin toplu taşıma sistemlerine etkileri de araştırılmaya başlandı. Bu tez, Covid-19’un Ankara’nın toplu taşıma sistemine etkilerini, alınan önlemler ve bu önlemlerin toplu taşıma kullanımına etkileri ve yolcu algıları üzerinden irdelemektedir. Diğer çalışmalara benzer bir şekilde pandeminin toplu taşıma üzerindeki nesnel etkileri Ankara örneği ile analiz edilmektedir. Buna ek olarak görece daha az incelenmiş bir konu olan Covid-19'un toplu taşıma üzerindeki öznel etkileri de bu tezde yolcuların pandemi döneminde toplu taşımaya yönelik risk ve etkinlik algıları ile araştırılmaktadır. Koruma Motivasyon Teorisi temel alınarak pandemi vi döneminde yolcu algıları literatür taraması dahil sağlık davranış modeli çerçevesinde çevrimiçi bir anket ile etüt edilmektedir. Covid-19'un Ankara’nın toplu taşıma sistemine etkisi olduğu hipotezi, araştırmanın yolcu sayıları, işe gelip-gitme süreleri, mesafeleri, bekleme süreleri ve aktarma sayıları gibi nesnel ölçütlere dayanan bulgular ile doğrudan desteklenmektedir. Ancak zirve saatler, pandemi sebebiyle değişmeyen tek ölçüt olarak bulunmuştur. Katılımcıların çoğunlukla risk algılarına rağmen pandemiye karşı nötr tutumları, Covid-19'un toplu taşıma üzerindeki öznel etkilerini ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Son olarak, pandemi döneminde tamamlanan bu araştırmanın zaman-mekan ve örneklem büyüklüğü kısıtları dikkate alınmalıdır. Bu doğrultuda bulgular daha fazla araştırma ile irdelenerek doğrulanabilir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Toplu Taşıma Algıları, Covid-19, Koruma Motivasyon Teorisi, Toplu Taşıma Yolculukları, Yolcu Hareketlilik Davranışı. vii DEDICATION To my mother and her two sisters, Soso & Mimi, the most beautiful women I know. To Falasteen, may we will see your cities free. viii ACKNOWLEDGMENT To my mum, for being the strongest and the gentlest woman I know at the same time. To my dad, for understanding the importance of mass transit and for passing his love to us. For Shaden and Abood, the lights of my life. To Zaina, for a bond no words could never describe. To my Miso for introducing urban planning to me at a very young age, and for opening horizons to me every step of the way. To Rand, for the support I can always count on receiving even before I ask. To Soso, Mimi, and Ala’a: There's not a day that passes without me wishing I can reach you. To Waleed Khalid Al-Khawaja, my fiancée and the love of my life, for extending all respect towards me and for his endless support to my studies and career, for taking airplanes like taxis and for defying time and space to make all of this possible – I love you. To my friends, the compasses of my life, without whom I could not have possibly been who I am today. To Amal, for always being there and for a heart like no other. To Maria, for being a sister, and to her family for being mine too. To Emmanuel for what has now become much more than “tea, sympathy, and a sofa”. To Nouran, Waddah, Zaid, Hamzeh, Hafida, and Marah. To my dear advisor, Prof.Dr. Emine Yetişkul Şenbil, for sorting through the astronomical piles of paper I sent her and for her invaluable advice every chapter of the way. Many thanks to Prof.Dr. Metin Şenbİl and to Mr. Fuat Vural for their input and help. To the Institute of Islamic Thought and to Onur for their help and incredible kindness during difficult times. Last but not least, to the kind people of Beştepe, for a hospitality like no other. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ............................................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ iv ÖZ ................................................................................................................................ vi DEDICATION .......................................................................................................... viii ACKNOWLEDGMENT ............................................................................................. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................. x LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................... xiii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................... xiv CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Problem Definition ........................................................................................ 1 1.2 Research Aim, Questions, and Structure ....................................................... 2 2. MASS TRANSPORTATION AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE SPREAD .............. 4 2.1 Brief History of Transportation and Infectious Disease Spread ................... 4 2.2 Factors Affecting Disease Transmission in Mass Transit Systems ............... 9 2.2.1 Pathogen Transmission Method ........................................................... 10 2.2.2 Characteristics of the Transportation System ....................................... 11 2.2.3 Passenger Mobility Behavior ............................................................... 14 2.3 Protection Measures ...................................................................................