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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Breaching the Fortress Wall Understanding Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies Brian A. Jackson • Peter Chalk • R. Kim Cragin Bruce Newsome • John V. Parachini • William Rosenau Erin M. Simpson • Melanie Sisson • Donald Temple Prepared for the Department of Homeland Security This research was sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security and was conducted under the auspices of the Homeland Security Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Breaching the fortress wall : understanding terrorist efforts to overcome defensive technologies / Brian A. Jackson ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-481.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3914-8 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. War on Terrorism, 2001–—Technology. 2. Security systems. 3. Terrorism— Prevention. 4. Terrorism—Prevention—Case studies. 5. Terrorism—Case studies. 6. National security. I. Jackson, Brian A. (Brian Anthony) HV6431.B737 2007 363.325'72—dc22 2006001721 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Eileen Delson La Russo Photo by TSgt Cedric H. Rudisill, U.S. Air Force © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Technical countermeasures are key components of national efforts to combat terrorist violence. Efforts to collect data about and disrupt ter- rorist activities through human intelligence and direct action, infor- mation gathering, and protective technologies complement technical countermeasures, helping to ensure that terrorists are identified, their ability to plan and stage attacks is limited, and, if those attacks occur, their impact is contained. Given the potential effect of such measures on the terrorists’ capabilities, it is not surprising that they act to reduce or neutralize the impact of defensive technologies on their activities. In the event that the terrorists’ counterefforts are successful, the value and protec- tion provided by defensive technologies can be substantially reduced. Through case studies of terrorist struggles in a number of nations, this document analyzes the nature and impact of such terrorist counteref- forts on the value of defensive technologies deployed against them. The information presented here should be of interest to home- land security policymakers in that it identifies potential weaknesses in defensive technology systems, thereby informing threat assessment and providing a basis for improving the design of future defensive technolo- gies. It extends the RAND Corporation’s ongoing research on terror- ism and domestic security issues. Related RAND publications include the following: • Brian A. Jackson, John C. Baker, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, John V. Parachini, and Horacio R. Trujillo, Aptitude for Destruction, iii iv Breaching the Fortress Wall Vol. 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Impli- cations for Combating Terrorism, MG-331-NIJ, 2005. • Brian A. Jackson, John C. Baker, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, John V. Parachini, and Horacio R. Trujillo, Aptitude for Destruction, Vol. 2: Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups, MG-332-NIJ, 2005. • Kim Cragin and Sara A. Daly, The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World, MR-1782-AF, 2004. • Peter Chalk and William Rosenau, Confronting “the Enemy Within”: Security Intelligence, the Police, and Counterterrorism in Four Democracies, MG-100-RC, 2004. This monograph is one in a series of studies examining techno- logical issues in terrorism and efforts to combat it. This series focuses on understanding how terrorist groups make technology choices and respond to the technologies deployed against them. This research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Office of Comparative Studies. The RAND Homeland Security Program This research was conducted under the auspices of the Homeland Security Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environ- ment (ISE). The mission of RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Envi- ronment is to improve the development, operation, use, and protec- tion of society’s essential physical assets and natural resources and to enhance the related social assets of safety and security of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communities. Homeland Secu- rity Program research supports the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies charged with preventing and mitigating the effects of terrorist activity within U.S. borders. Projects address critical infra- structure protection, emergency management, terrorism risk man- agement, border control, first responders and preparedness, domestic threat assessments, domestic intelligence, and workforce and training. Preface v Questions or comments about this monograph should be sent to the project leader, Brian A. Jackson ([email protected]). Information about the Homeland Security Program is available online (http://www.rand.org/ise/security/). Inquiries about homeland security research projects should be sent to the following address: Michael Wermuth, Director Homeland Security Program, ISE RAND Corporation 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, VA 22202-5050 703-413-1100, x5414 [email protected] Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. xi Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Defensive Technologies and the Effort to Combat Terrorism ................ 3 Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies........................ 7 About the Study .................................................................... 8 About This Monograph ..........................................................11 CHAPTER TWO Palestinian Terrorist Groups ..................................................13 Introduction .......................................................................13 Information Acquisition and Management ................................... 22 Preventive Action................................................................. 26 Denial ..............................................................................29 Response .......................................................................... 34 Conclusion ........................................................................ 34 vii viii Breaching the Fortress Wall CHAPTER THREE Jemaah Islamiyah and Affiliated Groups....................................39 Introduction .......................................................................39 Information Acquisition and Management ................................... 42 Preventive Action................................................................. 48 Denial ..............................................................................52