Synthesis and Integrative Research Final report Supporting evidence-based adaptation decision-making in Tasmania: a synthesis of climate change adaptation research Jan McDonald, John Harkin, Andrew Harwood, Alistair Hobday, Anna Lyth, Holger Meinke SUPPORTING EVIDENCE-BASED ADAPTATION DECISION-MAKING IN TASMANIA A synthesis of of climate change adaptation research JAN MCDONALD JOHN HARKIN ANDREW HARWOOD ALISTAIR HOBDAY ANNA LYTH HOLGER MEINKE Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility ISBN: 978-1-925039-81-8 NCCARF Publication 110/13 © 2013 University of Tasmania This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the copyright holder. Please cite this report as: McDonald, J, Harkin, J, Harwood, A, Hobday, A, Lyth, A & Meinke, H 2013, Supporting evidence-based adaptation decision-making in Tasmania: A synthesis of climate change adaptation research, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 173 pp. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with financial support from the Australian Government (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. The role of NCCARF is to lead the research community in a national interdisciplinary effort to generate the information needed by decision-makers in government, business and in vulnerable sectors and communities to manage the risk of climate change impacts. Graphics for the icons representing the terrestrial biodiversity, policy and governance, business and industry, and emergency management sectors, human health and community well-being were supplied by AECOM. Icons used to represent infrastructure and essential services, primary industries, land use planning, and marine biodiversity and fisheries were modified by Louise Bell, CSIRO, from those supplied by AECOM. Louise Bell designed the icon for Indigenous issues. Disclaimer The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth or NCCARF, and neither the Commonwealth nor NCCARF accept responsibility for information or advice contained herein. Cover picture © 2013 Jan McDonald Alpine areas are considered vulnerable to climate change in Tasmania. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ 7 PROJECT BACKGROUND ......................................................................................................................... 7 CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE IN TASMANIA ......................................................................................... 7 SYNTHESIS OF FINDINGS BY SECTOR ...................................................................................................... 9 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES ..................................................................................................................... 14 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................................... 14 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 17 1.1 PROJECT BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................... 17 1.2 PROJECT PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................ 17 2 PROJECT METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 20 2.1 PROJECT SCOPING AND PRELIMINARIES .................................................................................... 20 2.2 LITERATURE REVIEW AND SYNTHESIS ........................................................................................ 21 2.3 CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 23 2.4 SECTOR EXPERT INTERVIEWS ................................................................................................... 25 2.5 PROJECT WORKSHOP .............................................................................................................. 25 2.6 REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT OF CROSS-CUTTING THEMES .......................................................... 26 2.7 PROJECT LIMITATIONS ............................................................................................................. 27 3 ADAPTATION CONTEXT ............................................................................................................ 28 3.1 ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 29 3.2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT ..................................................................................................... 29 3.3 CLIMATE PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................................ 30 4 RESEARCH FINDINGS BY SECTOR .......................................................................................... 35 4.1 PRIMARY INDUSTRIES .............................................................................................................. 35 4.2 TERRESTRIAL AND FRESHWATER BIODIVERSITY ........................................................................ 43 4.3 MARINE BIODIVERSITY AND RESOURCES ................................................................................... 56 4.4 LAND USE PLANNING ................................................................................................................ 67 4.5 INFRASTRUCTURE AND ESSENTIAL SERVICES ............................................................................. 76 4.6 HUMAN HEALTH AND COMMUNITY WELLBEING .......................................................................... 83 4.7 BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY ......................................................................................................... 89 4.8 EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ..................................................................................................... 96 4.9 POLICY AND GOVERNANCE .................................................................................................... 101 4.10 INDIGENOUS ISSUES .............................................................................................................. 107 5 SYNTHESIS AND CROSS-CUTTING THEMES ........................................................................ 113 5.1 DRIVERS OF ADAPTATION ....................................................................................................... 113 5.2 FUTURE VISIONS: COMMON ELEMENTS AND THEMES ................................................................ 119 5.3 BARRIERS TO ADAPTATION ..................................................................................................... 124 5.4 SECTORAL DEPENDENCIES ..................................................................................................... 132 SUPPORTING EVIDENCE-BASED ADAPTATION DECISION-MAKING IN TASMANIA 1 6 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................................... 139 6.1 THE STATE OF ADAPTATION ACTIVITY AND RESEARCH .............................................................. 139 6.2 RESEARCH GAPS AND PRIORITIES ........................................................................................... 140 6.3 FUTURE DIRECTIONS ............................................................................................................. 144 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................. 146 APPENDIX 1 STAKEHOLDER AND RESEARCHER REFERENCE GROUPS MEMBERSHI ........ 168 SUPPORTING EVIDENCE-BASED ADAPTATION DECISION-MAKING IN TASMANIA 2 List of tables Table 1. The objectives and content of report sections ___________________________________ 19 Table 2. Websites searched ________________________________________________________ 22 Table 3. Academic databases searched _______________________________________________ 23 Table 4. Ongoing research relevant to Tasmania ________________________________________ 50 Table 5. Marine biodiversity and resources projects relating to Tasmania _____________________ 62 Table 6. NCCARF projects of likely significance to Tasmanian business and industry ___________ 94 Table 7. NCCARF projects of potential significance to Tasmanian Indigenous communities _____ 110 Table 8. Workshop participant opinions on drivers of climate change adaptation interest and action _____________________________________________________________________________ 115 Table 9. Barriers to adaptation identified by interviewees, categorised against the elements of the Moser and Ekstrom (2010) framework _______________________________________________ 130 Table 10. Summary of sectoral adaptation research priorities _____________________________ 141 List of figures Figure ES1. The state of adaptation activity and awareness for 10 Tasmanian sectors and the degree to which research, sectoral needs, and government policy influence. The size of the circles indicates the relative influence for each category _______________________________________________ 15 Figure 1. Project methodology ______________________________________________________