The Cotswold Canal Restoration: Appraisal of Economic Impacts A Draft Final Report to British Waterways ECOTEC Research & Consulting Limited Priestley House 28-34 Albert Street Birmingham B4 7UD United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)121 616 3600 Fax: +44 (0)121 616 3699 Web: www.ecotec.com The Cotswold Canal Restoration: Appraisal of Economic Impacts A Draft Final Report to British Waterways c2377 Ref: 09/05/2014 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Priestley House 13b Avenue de Tervuren 28-34 Albert Street B-1040 Brussels Birmingham B4 7UD Belgium United Kingdom Tel: +32 (0)2 743 8949 Tel: +44 (0)121 616 3600 Fax: +32 (0)2 743 7111 Fax: +44 (0)121 616 3699 Modesto Lafuente 63 – 6a Web: www.ecotec.com E-28003 Madrid E-mail: [email protected] Spain Tel: +34 91 535 0640 Fax: +34 91 533 3663 6-8 Marshalsea Road London SE1 1HL United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)20 7089 5550 Fax: +44 (0)20 7089 5559 31-32 Park Row Leeds LS1 5JD United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)113 244 9845 Fax: +44 (0)113 244 9844 Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 The Cotswold Canals .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Aims and Objectives of the Study ...................................................................................... 2 1.3 Approach and Work Undertaken ........................................................................................ 3 1.4 Report Structure .................................................................................................................. 4 2.0 THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT ............................................................................. 5 2.1 Introduction and Context .................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Profile of Districts .............................................................................................................. 5 2.3 Employment by Sector ....................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Economic Activity Rates .................................................................................................. 10 2.5 Unemployment ................................................................................................................. 11 2.6 Earnings ............................................................................................................................ 11 2.7 House Prices ..................................................................................................................... 12 2.8 Commuting ....................................................................................................................... 13 2.9 The Index of Multiple Deprivation ................................................................................... 16 2.10 Access to Rural Services .................................................................................................. 17 2.11 Stroud Town Centre .......................................................................................................... 19 2.11.1 Unit Vacancies ........................................................................................................... 19 2.11.2 Rental Values ............................................................................................................. 20 2.12 Economic Development Policy ........................................................................................ 20 2.12.1 Stroud District ............................................................................................................ 21 2.12.2 Cotswold District ....................................................................................................... 21 2.13 Key Messages ................................................................................................................... 22 3.0 THE TOURISM AND LEISURE CONTEXT................................................................. 24 3.1 Introduction and Context .................................................................................................. 24 3.2 The Tourism and Leisure Economy Along the Canal ...................................................... 24 3.2.1 Volume and Spend of Visitors ................................................................................... 24 3.2.2 Tourist Information Centre Inquiries ......................................................................... 25 3.2.3 Visits to Attractions ................................................................................................... 26 3.2.4 Accommodation Stock ............................................................................................... 27 3.2.5 Accommodation Occupancy ...................................................................................... 28 3.2.6 Tourism and Leisure Businesses ................................................................................ 29 3.2.7 Tourism Employment ................................................................................................ 31 3.3 Tourism Policy Context .................................................................................................... 32 3.3.1 Regional ..................................................................................................................... 33 3.3.2 County ........................................................................................................................ 33 3.3.3 Stroud District ............................................................................................................ 34 3.3.4 Cotswold District ....................................................................................................... 35 3.4 Key Messages ................................................................................................................... 35 4.0 ECONOMIC IMPACT: THE DEMAND SIDE .............................................................. 37 4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 37 4.2 Baseline Usage and the Potential Market ......................................................................... 38 4.2.1 Baseline Usage ........................................................................................................... 38 4.2.2 The Potential Market.................................................................................................. 39 4.3 Projected Future Usage of the Restored Canal ................................................................. 42 4.3.1 The Year 0 Scenario................................................................................................... 42 4.3.2 The Year 5 Scenario................................................................................................... 44 4.4 Expenditure and Related Economic Impacts .................................................................... 47 4.4.1 Expenditure ................................................................................................................ 47 4.4.2 Economic Impacts ...................................................................................................... 48 4.5 Economic Benefits ............................................................................................................ 51 4.5.1 Retained Income ........................................................................................................ 51 4.5.2 Producer Surplus ........................................................................................................ 51 4.5.3 Consumer Surplus ...................................................................................................... 51 4.5.4 House Prices............................................................................................................... 52 4.5.5 Wider Environmental Impacts ................................................................................... 52 4.6 Key Messages ................................................................................................................... 53 5.0 ECONOMIC IMPACT: THE SUPPLY SIDE ................................................................ 54 5.1 Introduction and Context .................................................................................................. 54 5.2 The Current Supply of Tourism and Leisure Facilities .................................................... 54 5.2.1 Boating Facilities ....................................................................................................... 55 5.2.2 Tourism and Leisure Attractions and Facilities ......................................................... 55 5.2.3 Accommodation Facilities ......................................................................................... 56 5.2.4 Eating and Drinking Facilities ................................................................................... 57 5.2.5 Food and Drink Shops ............................................................................................... 58 5.2.6 Benchmarking the Supply of Facilities Along the Cotswold Canals ......................... 59 5.3 The Capacity of Current Facilities .................................................................................... 60 5.4 Key Messages ..................................................................................................................