A BULLETIN OF THE HISTORIC ENVIRONMENT Issue 57: Spring 2008 Issue 57: Spring 2008 Issue Conservation bulletin 2 Editorial 3 Facing the Facts Adapting to a Changing Climate 3 Projecting the changing climate 5 The past as guide to the future 7 Threats and opportunities 12 Anticipating the Impacts 12 Adapt and conserve! 14 Growing with climate change 15 All change in the countryside? 17 Out to sea 20 Inventing the Future 26 Learning to Adapt 26 Cutting down on public carbon 29 Measuring carbon footprints 30 Going with the wind 31 Mitigating the National Trust 32 Powering historic houses 33 Thinking nationally, acting locally 34 Heelis 36 Hearth and Home 37 International cultural heritage 38 A stitch in time 39 The European perspective 40 Finding out More 42 News Climate change is happening. But what will it do to our historic 44 The National environment? And how can our knowledge of the past help us adapt Monuments Record to the future? 46 Legal Developments 47 New Publications Climate change is nothing new. Erected at a time when Cornwall’s climate was starting to cool down, the Bronze Age Men Gurta longstone now stands in the shadow of the St Breock Downs windfarm, the latter a monument to a new phase of rising temperature. © English Heritage Photo Library Issue 57: Editorial: Adapting to a Changing Climate The historic environment will have much to teach us on our journey to a more sustainable low-carbon way of life. Damaging climate change, driven by greenhouse sector and by others will play a fundamental role gas emissions, is now widely recognised as in delivering this agenda.Above all, we must the defining issue of our time. It is the most remember that our historic buildings and places significant environmental, social and economic have always existed in a changing climate.We challenge faced by humanity. must not underestimate their resilience or capacity The UK is actively thinking about how we can to adapt.We must not neglect the lessons we can adapt to the climatic changes that are now inevi­ learn from the record of past environmental table in the short term and how we can reduce change and human adaptation to it.And we must emissions to avoid even more drastic changes in recognise that we have a wealth of information the future.This is influencing Government policy derived from ancestors who often lived more in many areas, including spatial planning, land use, sustainably than we do today and for whom agriculture and transport, and is increasingly energy was not such a throw-away commodity. affecting our personal behaviour. If the historic environment is to play a creative The historic environment is not immune role in forging a sustainable and cohesive low- from the impacts of climate change. Shifts in carbon society we also need to understand much temperature, sea level, storminess, flood risk and more about the contribution of the millions of the distribution of pests and disease will inevitably traditional houses, factories, offices and places of take their toll on traditional buildings, historic worship that give our towns and villages their townscapes, archaeological sites and cherished distinctive sense of place.To set the ball rolling, landscapes.This, in turn, could diminish the English Heritage recently invited delegates from valuable contribution our heritage makes socially across the spectrum of the built environment to and economically.The measures necessary to pool their experience and begin to establish a new adapt to and combat climatic instability will also way forward (Inventing the Future, pp 20–25). necessitate significant change in the historic In this issue of Conservation Bulletin we examine environment, not all of which will conform to work being undertaken by English Heritage and current thinking about heritage management. our partners to respond to the challenge of The challenge faced by our sector is consider­ climate change.This work is still in its infancy but able.We need to develop a far better picture of the establishes a direction of travel that will become nature, scale and timing of potential impacts.We the dominant theme in the years ahead.We are need to define how change can be accommodated therefore particularly pleased to announce a major while the cultural significance of historic assets is partnership between English Heritage and E.ON. conserved right across the whole spectrum of our As organisations, we are both committed to caring heritage.We need to bridge the significant gap for and protecting the environment for future between the still uncertain predictions of climatic generations and will be collaborating on a wide changes and the need for practical adaptive action range of initiatives that will make a real contribu­ on the ground. In particular we need to identify tion to the goal of reducing the impact of climate those changes that are low-risk, economic and change upon the built environment. ■ effective and avoid those that are unnecessary, Edward Impey impractical or might reduce flexibility for further Director of Research and Standards, English Heritage adaptation. Research by the historic environment Conservation Bulletin is published three times a year by English Heritage and circulated free of charge to more than 15,000 conservation specialists, opinion-formers and decision-makers. Its purpose is to communicate new ideas and advice to everyone concerned with the understanding, management and public enjoyment of England’s rich and diverse historic environment. When you have finished with this copy of Conservation Bulletin, do please pass it on. And if you would like to be added to our mailing list, or to change your current subscription details, just contact us on 020 7973 3253 or at [email protected]. 2 | Conservation bulletin | Issue 57: Spring 2008 Facing the Facts Climate change is nothing new – but how is this current episode going to differ from those of the past, and what more do we need to know? Projecting the UK’s changing climate referred to as UKCIP02, was released in 2002 Roger Street and describes how the future climate of the UK Technical Director, UK Climate Impacts Programme is projected to evolve over the course of this century. The climate in the UK is changing.This is The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios particularly evident to those whose livelihoods are based on the results of a climate model are sensitive to the vagaries of the weather and (HadCM3) developed by the Met Office Hadley climate, but is also reflected in the temperature Centre.They reflect the best understanding, at that and precipitation records from across the UK time, of how the climate system operates.The ( Jenkins et al 2007): presentation of the information is based on four • Central England temperatures have risen by internationally recognised plausible emission 21 about a degree Celsius since the 1970s, with futures for the st century.These four futures in 2006 being the warmest on record. turn are based on various assumptions about Temperatures in Scotland and Northern Ireland future human trends and behaviour (such as have risen by about 0.8°C since about 1980.The population growth, socio-economic development thermal growing season for plants has increased and technological advances), and how these might by up to 30 days since 1900. influence future global emissions of greenhouse • Annual mean precipitation over England and gases and aerosols. 02 Wales has not changed significantly since As such, UKCIP provides four alternative records began in 1766. Seasonal rainfall is highly scenarios of climate change, ranging from that variable, but appears to have decreased in projected for a world of rapid economic growth summer and increased in winter, although with with intensive use of fossil fuels (labelled High little change in the latter over the last 50 years. • All regions of the UK have experienced an 2020s 2050s 2080s 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E increase over the past 45 years in the contribu­ 60N 60N tion to winter rainfall from heavy precipitation 57N 57N events; in summer all regions except NE 54N 54N England and N Scotland show decreases. • Sea level around the UK rose by about 51N 51N Medium-High Emissions 1 20 60N 60N mm/year in the th century, corrected for scenario 1990 land movement.The rate for the s and 57N 57N Mean 2000s has been higher than this. temperature 54N 54N change (°C) Furthermore, these changes in our climate and 51N 51N 4.5 4 the associated impacts are projected to continue. 60N 60N This assertion is based on the conclusions of the 3.5 57N 57N 3 recently released assessment report of the Inter­ 2.5 54N 54N governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2 AR4, 2007, www.ipcc.ch) and is reflected in the 51N 51N 1.5 1 60N 60N available climate change scenarios from the UK 0.5 Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP, 57N 57N Changes within www.ukcip.org.uk). ‘natural’ varial Projected change in Over the past 10 years UKCIP and the Met 54N 54N average annual, Office Hadley Centre have made available climate 51N 51N winter and summer change scenarios for the UK that are intended to 60N 60N temperature in 2020s, 2050s, and help organisations identify how they might be 57N 57N 2080s for the low affected by climate change and what they can do 54N 54N and high emissions to minimise their risks or to exploit potential Spring Winter Annual Summer Autumn scenarios. opportunities.The current set of these scenarios, 51N 51N © UKCIP 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E Issue 57: Spring 2008 | Conservation bulletin | 3 ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE Emissions) to that projected for a world with • Snowfall amounts are expected to decrease increased economic, social and environmental across the UK (high confidence), and large sustainability with cleaner energy technologies parts of the country are expected to experience (labelled Low Emissions).