INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND RUBBER CULTIVATION: R & D PRIORITIES 28-30 July 2010 Rubber Research Institute of India, Kottayam-686 009, India ABSTRACTS Organised by Rubber Research Institute of India In association with International Rubber Research and Development Board Sajen Peter IAS Chairman Rubber Board India Email:[email protected] M E S S A G E We live in a world which is increasingly facing the threat of global warming and unprecedented climate change. According to the fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this is due to increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide etc. in the atmosphere. However, there is a tiny minority of scientists - the so- called “climatic skeptics”- who still believe that climate change is not due to anthropogenic effects but this is due to natural causes such as changes in solar activity etc. Whatever be the cause or causes, there is a general consensus among scientists and political leaders, and it is common knowledge among ordinary people, that climate has been changing in their surroundings. Even as emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is intricately linked to industrial activities and thus economic growth, the economic cost of climate change is substantial. We hear a lot about melting of polar ice, retreat of glaciers and occurrence of heat waves, flash floods, droughts, sea surge etc. in different parts of the world. The human and economic costs of these effects are beyond comprehension. Agriculture and food availability will be severely threatened and the poor masses living in the developing and least developed countries, mostly in the equatorial region will be highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Natural rubber is mostly cultivated in the developing countries in South and South East Asia, parts of South America and Africa falling in the equatorial belt. These are some of the most populous nations in the world and they are highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Natural rubber cultivation will not remain immune to the adverse effects of global warming and climate change. There are more than 10 million small growers who depend on natural rubber cultivation for their livelihood in these countries and climate change has the potential to pose serious threats to their well-being. Adverse effects of climate change can seriously diminish the supply of natural rubber and thus jeopardize the rubber goods manufacturing industry. Shortage of natural rubber will eventually result in increased consumption of synthetic rubbers which will lead to increase in the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The importance of studying the impact of climate change on natural rubber supply was brought to the attention of the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) by me during its meeting of its Industry Advisory Panel held in Brussels in October 2008. Since then, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) and the International Rubber Research and Development Board (IRRDB) have taken keen interest in the subject and I am glad that Rubber Research Institute of India is now hosting this important workshop under the auspices of the IRRDB. I congratulate all those who have been instrumental in organizing this workshop and coming out with this book of abstracts of the presentations. I am sure this workshop will help scientists to formulate meaningful research programmes for the future in which climate uncertainties will be major constraints for growth and productivity of natural rubber. RRII Sajan Peter IAS 24 July 2010 Dr. Abdul Aziz Bin S.A. Kadir Secretary General International Rubber Research and Development Board Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [email protected] M E S S A G E The International Rubber Research and Development Board (IRRDB) has a long and rich history of bringing scientists and policy makers working in the area of natural rubber in various parts of the world to a common platform to discuss issues of topical importance. With a total membership of 21 rubber research institutes from 20 countries and 5 associate members, the IRRDB covers more than 95% of the natural rubber cultivated area in the world. In recent years, the IRRDB has become more active and visible by organizing various activities through its different specialist groups. In the Meeting of the Chief Executives and Directors of IRRDB and Meeting of the Board held in Bogor, Indonesia during October 2009, a decision was taken to organize an international workshop on “Climate Change and Natural Rubber Cultivation: R & D Priorities” under the auspices of the IRRDB Specialist Group on Physiology. The workshop will be hosted by the RRI India. I am extremely happy to note that more than 50 papers are being presented in this important workshop and wish to congratulate Dr. R. Krishnakumar, Liaison Officer of the IRRDB Specialist Group on Physiology who has worked very hard to organize the workshop. The deliberations of this workshop will be useful to develop research strategies for cultivating natural rubber in a future climate which is expected to become less congenial in most of the traditional rubber growing regions of the world. Considering the importance of climate change and its impact on natural rubber cultivation, the IRRDB has set up a Task Force on Climate Change and I believe the recommendations of this workshop would be reviewed by the Task Force for further course of action. Kuala Lumpur Dr. Abdul Aziz Bin S.A. Kadir 24 July 2010 Dr. James Jacob Director, RRII and Vice Chairman, IRRDB Email : [email protected] FOREWORD The Bogor meetings of IRRDB held during October 2009 decided to organize an International Workshop on “Climate Change and Rubber Cultivation: R & D Priorities” as an activity of the IRRDB Specialist Group on Physiology. Given the significant amount of research done in this area, Rubber Research Institute of India offered to host this workshop. India is perhaps the only country in the world where natural rubber is cultivated in extremely diverse agroclimatic zones where the summer maximum temperature can be above 40 0C or the minimum temperature during winter can be below 4 0C. RRII has successfully developed clones and farm technologies suitable for these diverse conditions. About 60 papers are presented in this workshop. These papers are organized into different technical sessions such as (i) Climate Change and its Impact on Natural Rubber Productivity (ii) Projected Climate Scenarios and Natural Rubber Supply in Future (iii) Natural Rubber Cultivation in Stressful Environments (iv) Climate Change and Prevalence of Diseases in Natural Rubber and (v) Innovations in Rubber Processing and Manufacturing Industry for Mitigating Climate Change. The extended abstracts of these papers are presented in this booklet for quick reference. Several studies indicate that climate has been undergoing significant changes in the natural rubber growing regions of the world. Temperature has risen, number of hot days and warm nights per year has gone up and unexpected break in monsoon and prolonged dry spells have been occurring in many palaces. While rise in temperatures can significantly reduce productivity in most of the traditional regions, this may have only little impact in cooler regions such as North East India or parts of China where rubber is cultivated. Warming temperatures may make more areas available for rubber cultivation in these regions. Climate change can bring new pest and disease incidences. Weather-induced instability in the supply of natural rubber can have significant impact on price formation. Studies presented in this workshop show that innovations in rubber processing and manufacturing can help in reducing emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Possibilities of applying remote sensing and GIS in climate change studies and identifying areas that are vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change are also discussed. Thus, this book of abstracts is a rich repository of highly valuable scientific findings. I hope and expect that the contents of this book will lead to meaningful research for successful cultivation of natural rubber in areas which are vulnerable to the adverse effects of global warming and climate change. I wish to thank Sri. Sajen Peter, IAS, Chairman, Rubber Board for all the efforts he has taken to project the importance of climate change to the natural rubber sector at various national and international platforms, including IRSG, ANRPC, IRRDB etc. He has always shown keen interest in all activities of RRII. He is demitting the office on 5th of August 2010 after completing his term as Chairman of Rubber Board. All of us at RRII wish him the best in his next assignment. I would also like to thank Datuk Dr. Abdul Aziz Bin S.A. Kadir, Secretary General, IRRDB for all the support and encouragement that he has given for the workshop. I thank Dr. Stephen V. Evans, Secretary General, IRSG for attending this important workshop and delivering a special lecture. I also thank all the invitees, delegates and my colleagues from RRII for their whole hearted support and hard work in making this workshop so beautiful. I also thank Travancore Rubber & Tea Co. Ltd, Thiruvananthapuram, Harrisons Malayalam Ltd, Kochi, Midas Mileage, Kottayam, Rehabilitation Plantations Ltd., Punalur, Vadakkel Nursery, Perumbavoor, Rubber Asia, Kochi, Mars Agency Pvt. Ltd, Bangalore, Spinco Analytica (P) Ltd., Chennai and Eastern Treads Ltd., Ernakulam for their financial support for the workshop. RRII Dr. James Jacob 28 July 2010 CONTENTS Messages Foreword Key Note address WHY SHOULD WE WORRY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE? 1 J. Srinivasan Special talk: DEMAND AND SUPPLY RELATIONS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 2 Stephen V. Evans TECHNICAL SESSION I Climate change and its impact on natural rubber productivity 1. RUBBER GROWTH ANALYSIS USING A CLIMATE MODEL 3 IN THE NON-TRADITIONAL AREA OF THAILAND Krissada Sangsing 2.