AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF Duckha Jeon for the degree of Master of Science in Sustainable Forest Management presented on May 26, 2020. Title: Real-time Decision Making on Helicopter Dispatch during Multiple Forest Fires. Abstract approved: ______________________________________________________ Woodam Chung On average there are over 500 forest fires burning more than 3,700 ha each year in South Korea. Between 2014 and 2018, 62 percent of forest fires were multiple fires burning simultaneously in more than two different locations across the country. These multiple fires make it difficult to make decisions of resource dispatch for suppression, as they compete for limited resources, such as helicopters. In order to support and improve decision-making in real-time helicopter dispatch, we developed a conceptual decision framework that lays out the process of information gathering, prioritization, and problem-solving. We developed an integer linear programming (ILP) model to solve helicopter dispatch problems. The model uses real-time data on available helicopter resources and fire spread to develop dispatch decisions while minimizing both suppression costs and burn perimeters. We developed five hypothetical forest fire events and applied the model to demonstrate the utility of the optimization model. We compared the model solutions with the manual solutions obtained from the Korea Forest Service for model validation. Our results show that the optimization model can rapidly analyze various fire suppression scenarios and provide a wide range of helicopter dispatch solution options. This can be useful to decision-makers as it can provide insights about decision sensitivity and bounds. The decision model can provide an analytical tool to assist decision-makers in determining suppression objectives, prioritizing resource allocations, and developing effective and efficient fire suppression solutions. ©Copyright by Duckha Jeon May 26, 2020 All Rights Reserved Real-time Decision Making on Helicopter Dispatch during Multiple Forest Fires by Duckha Jeon A THESIS submitted to Oregon State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Presented May 26, 2020 Commencement June 2020 Master of Science thesis of Duckha Jeon presented on May26, 2020 APPROVED: Major Professor, representing Sustainable Forest Management Head of the Department of Forest Engineering, Resources & Management Dean of the Graduate School I understand that my thesis will become part of the permanent collection of Oregon State University libraries. My signature below authorizes release of my thesis to any reader upon request. Duckha Jeon, Author ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research project was funded by the National Forest Institute of Forest Science of the Korea Forest Service. The author thanks the Forest Fire Prevention and Control Division of the Korea Forest Service, National Forest Institute of Forest Science of the Korea Forest Service, and the Forest Aviation Headquarters of the Korea Forest Service for providing data and useful comments throughout this project. Committee ▪ Major Professor: Dr. Woodam Chung ▪ Graduate Council Representative: Dr. Jack Higginbotham ▪ Committee Member: Dr. Olli-Pekka Kuusela ▪ Committee Member: Dr. Yohan Lee TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 2 Materials and Methods .............................................................................................. 8 2.1 Conceptual decision framework ........................................................................ 8 2.1.1 Information gathering and data preparation ................................................. 9 2.1.1.1 Weather data .......................................................................................... 9 2.1.1.2 Geospatial data and fire simulation...................................................... 10 2.1.1.3 Helicopters data ................................................................................... 11 2.1.1.4 Water sources data ............................................................................... 12 2.1.2 Objective and fire prioritization ................................................................. 13 2.1.3 Problem formulation and solution ............................................................. 15 2.1.4 Outcome assessment and reporting ............................................................ 18 2.2 Applications ..................................................................................................... 19 2.2.1 South Korea ............................................................................................... 19 2.2.2 Helicopters data ......................................................................................... 20 2.2.3 Study fires .................................................................................................. 24 2.2.4 Prioritization scenarios............................................................................... 26 2.2.4.1 Base-case scenario and validation of model solutions ......................... 26 2.2.4.2 Weight between cost and burn perimeter (Wq) .................................... 26 2.2.4.3 Weights on individual forest fires (Wf) ................................................ 27 2.2.4.4 Effects of delayed helicopter dispatch ................................................. 29 3 Results ..................................................................................................................... 29 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page 3.1 Base case scenario............................................................................................. 29 3.2 Comparisons between the optimization model solutions and manual solutions ............................................................................................................................... 31 3.3 Effects of the weights (Wq) between operating costs and burn perimeters ...... 39 3.4 Effects of the weights (Wf) on fires .................................................................. 41 3.5 Effects of delay on helicopter dispatch ............................................................ 42 4 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 44 5 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 48 Bibliography .............................................................................................................. 50 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Percentage of single and multiple forest fires and their average damage size based on the number of forest fires per day in South Korea during 2014-2018 (KFS 2018). 1 2. Typical procedures for helicopter dispatch and operations in South Korea (KFS 2018). ........................................................................................................................... 3 3. A graphic representation of the conceptual decision framework developed in this study. Each component consists of multiple tasks to be performed by the Korea Forest Service Forest Fire Control Center using real-time data and multiple analysis tools. ..................................................................................................................................... 9 4. Example of forest fire spread simulation outputs. ................................................. 11 5. Map overlaying between KFS’ fire vulnerability map and fire spread simulation results to prioritize forest fires. The more areas of high vulnerability class are included, the higher priority the fire will be given. ................................................................... 14 6. Aviation stations and deployed helicopters (KFS 2018). ...................................... 20 7. Study fire locations across South Korea and fire spread simulation results showing changes in burn perimeter over a 360-minute burn period. ....................................... 25 8. Simulated burn areas and the proportion of each vulnerability class in each of the five study fires............................................................................................................ 28 9. The optimal helicopter dispatch solution obtained from the ILP optimization model for the five Study Fires showing the suppression results in burn perimeters, helicopter operating costs, and suppression time. ....................................................................... 31 10. Comparisons between the manual solution developed by the Korea Forest Service Fire Control Center (a) and the optimization model solution (b) for five study fires. 33 11. Comparison of dispatch results between the manual and optimization model solutions for Study Fire 1. .......................................................................................... 34 12. Comparison of dispatch results between the manual and optimization model solutions for Study Fire 2. .......................................................................................... 35 13. Comparison of dispatch results between the manual and optimization model solutions for Study Fire 3. .......................................................................................... 36 LIST OF FIGURES (Continued) Figure Page 14. Comparison of dispatch results between the manual and optimization model solutions for Study Fire 4. .........................................................................................