Mancera & Begnotea: Risk analysis of the MANATUTI river system 1 Risk analysis of the MANATUTI river system, Metro Manila, Philippines: An urban 2 landscape approach 3 Jeffrey P. Mancera1 and Karl Daniel A. Begnotea2 4 1Department of Biology, University of the Philippines Manila, Ermita, Manila 1000, Philippines; 5 [email protected] 6 2Kalikasan People’s Network for the Environment, Diliman, Quezon City, 1101, Philippines; 7 [email protected] 8 1Author for correspondence 9 Jeffrey P. Mancera is an Assistant Professor of Biology at the University of the Philippines Manila. 10 He obtained his bachelor’s degree in Biology in the same institution and master’s degree in 11 Biology, major in Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology at San Francisco State University, 12 California, USA. He has been involved in different researches on ecosystem management and 13 restoration and disaster risk reduction in Metro Manila including community risk assessments in 14 Malabon City and a comprehensive literature review on the MANATUTI river basin since 2012. 15 Karl Daniel A. Begnotea is an Environmental Research, Campaign, and Advocacy Specialist at the 16 Kalikasan (Nature) People’s Network for the Environment, a national environmental network for 17 the coordination and complementation of campaigns on people’s environmental issues in the 18 Philippines founded in 1997. He has spearheaded several environmental pre- and post-impact 19 assessments in ecosystems and communities affected by development plans in the countryside 20 such as Nueva Vizcaya, Batangas, and Iloilo, among many others since 2014. Mancera & Begnotea: Risk analysis of the MANATUTI river system 21 Table of Contents 22 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... 4 23 List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. 5 24 List of Equations ....................................................................................................................... 10 25 Abstract .................................................................................................................................... 11 26 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 12 27 Background ......................................................................................................................... 12 28 Objectives ........................................................................................................................... 14 29 Significance ......................................................................................................................... 14 30 Limitations .......................................................................................................................... 15 31 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 16 32 Theoretical Framework ...................................................................................................... 16 33 Integrated risk management ......................................................................................... 16 34 Landscape approach ..................................................................................................... 20 35 Urban resilience ............................................................................................................ 25 36 Conceptual Framework ....................................................................................................... 26 37 Location .............................................................................................................................. 30 38 Data Collection .................................................................................................................... 32 39 Data Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 33 40 Findings .................................................................................................................................... 35 41 Hazards ............................................................................................................................... 35 42 Hydrometeorological .................................................................................................... 36 43 Geological ..................................................................................................................... 49 44 Technological ................................................................................................................ 54 45 Environmental .............................................................................................................. 58 46 Biological ...................................................................................................................... 58 2 Mancera & Begnotea: Risk analysis of the MANATUTI river system 47 Assessment ................................................................................................................... 59 48 Vulnerabilities and Capacities ............................................................................................. 59 49 Socio-economic ............................................................................................................. 59 50 Environmental .............................................................................................................. 67 51 Infrastructural .............................................................................................................. 73 52 Governance ................................................................................................................... 81 53 Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 91 54 Worst-case scenario ...................................................................................................... 91 55 Urban resilience ............................................................................................................ 91 56 Landscape approach ..................................................................................................... 96 57 Integrated risk management ......................................................................................... 99 58 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 101 59 Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 103 60 References ........................................................................................................................ 104 3 Mancera & Begnotea: Risk analysis of the MANATUTI river system 61 List of Tables 62 Table Page 63 1. Projected seasonal temperature increase in Metro Manila in the next 15-45 years given a 64 mid-range emission scenario. All values in °C. Source: PAGASA (2011)..................................45 65 2. Poverty incidence among families in cities along the MANATUTI river system. Source: 66 PSA (2015, 2018) .............................................................................................................................................59 67 3. Percent poor in cities along the MANATUTI river system. Source: NHTS-PR (2017) ........60 68 4. Percentage of poor individuals age 15 and above with no reported occupation .................61 69 5. Dominant industry in terms of number cities along the MANATUTI river system .............62 70 6. Ground water extraction persistence and availability of potable water to the urban poor 71 along the MANATUTI river system ...........................................................................................................63 72 7. City health attendance data ..........................................................................................................................65 73 8. Number of hospitals, health centers and bed capacity ratio of cities along the MANATUTI 74 river system ........................................................................................................................................................66 75 9. Water quality parameters measured by DENR along the MANATUTI river system. 76 Source: DENR Water Quality Monitoring Report MANATUTI WQMA ......................................68 77 10. Number of materials recovery facilities and diversion rate of cities along the MANATUTI 78 river system ........................................................................................................................................................72 79 11. ICT platforms utilized by cities along the MANATUTI river system as warning system ..80 80 12. Proposed reclamation projects associated with the MANATUTI landscape ..........................86 4 Mancera & Begnotea: Risk analysis of the MANATUTI river system 81 List of Figures 82 Figure Page 83 1. The integrated risk management framework and its major components ...............................18 84 2. The integrated risk management framework and its key elements ..........................................19 85 3. The landscape approach views the environment