CONTESTED COOPERATION IN THE EU’S EXTERNAL MIGRATION POLICY: IN SEARCH OF EFFECTIVE MIGRATION PARTNERSHIPS (WITH NIGER AND MALI) Umstrittene Zusammenarbeit in der externen EU-Migrationspolitik: Auf der Suche nach effektiven Migrationspartnerschaften (mit Niger und Mali) Hausarbeit zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Master of Arts in Politikwissenschaft Politische Ökonomie und Internationale Beziehungen vorgelegt dem Fachbereich 02 – Sozialwissenschaften, Medien und Sport der Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz von Julia Blöser aus Wiesbaden August 2020 Acknowledgements I would like to thank all fellow researchers of the JGU workshop on Europe’s Role in Global Migration Governance (4-5 July 2019) who offered valuable advice on refining on the focus of this study and who shared manuscripts of their ongoing research, contrib- uting relevant information for answering and contextualising the research question at hand. Furthermore, all feedback provided through the colloquium by colleagues and fel- low students was highly appreciated. Most importantly, I sincerely acknowledge all in- terview partners for taking the time to support me with this research project and thus considerably contributing to its overall results. Content L I S T O F T ABLES ............................................................................................................ III L I S T O F F IGURES ........................................................................................................... III L I S T O F A BBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... IV G E R M A N A BSTRACT ...................................................................................................... V 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 2 EXTENDING ON PREVIOUS RESEARCH: STRATEGIC MIGRATION POLICY .................. 3 3 EMPIRICAL BACKGROUND: CONTEXTUALIZING THE MPF WITHIN THE EU’S EXTERNAL MIGRATION POLICY .......................................................................................... 6 3.1 EU Externalisation Development (What Works?) ................................................. 6 3.2 The Migration Partnership Framework as a Crisis Response ................................. 9 4 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EFFECTIVENESS IN PERSPECTIVE .............................. 11 4.1 Conceptualising Effectiveness .............................................................................. 11 4.2 Prospects of Effectiveness: Insights from the Negotiation Analysis Literature ... 13 4.2.1 An Analytical View on Negotiations and Determinants of Agreement ........ 13 4.2.2 Determining State Interests and Negotiation Positions ................................. 15 4.2.3 Power Relations and Negotiation Strategy .................................................... 16 4.2.4 Multi-level Bargaining and the Role of Actor Cohesiveness ........................ 18 4.3 Research Design and Methodology ...................................................................... 21 4.3.1 Study Design: Structured Focused Case Comparison ................................... 21 4.3.2 Methodological Approach and Operationalisation ....................................... 23 5 ACCOUNTING FOR EFFECTIVENESS IN COOPERATING UNDER THE MPF ................. 25 5.1 Effectiveness in Practice: Which Goals to Attain? ............................................... 25 5.2 Determining the EU’s Interests and Negotiation Strategy ................................... 27 5.3 Overall Assessment and Case Selection: Comparing Effectiveness Among Priority Partners ............................................................................................................... 30 5.4 Partnering with Niger: A European ‘Showcase’ .................................................. 35 5.4.1 General and Migratory Background .............................................................. 35 5.4.2 Stages of Establishing a Partnership ............................................................. 36 5.4.3 Accounting for EU Effectiveness .................................................................. 40 5.4.3.1 Benefits and Resonance with National Policies ..................................... 40 5.4.3.2 Domestic Adoption Costs and Local Opposition ................................... 46 i 5.5 Partnering with Mali: Dealing with Divergent Interests ...................................... 49 5.5.1 General and Migratory Background .............................................................. 49 5.5.2 Stages of Establishing a Partnership ............................................................. 52 5.5.3 Accounting for EU Effectiveness .................................................................. 54 5.5.3.1 Benefits and Resonance with National Policies ..................................... 54 5.5.3.2 Domestic Adoption Costs and National Opposition .............................. 58 5.6 EU Cohesiveness as a Determinant of Effectiveness? ......................................... 63 5.6.1 Policy Cohesiveness (Horizontal) ................................................................. 64 5.6.2 Actor Cohesiveness (Vertical) ...................................................................... 67 6 EU EFFECTIVENESS IN PERSPECTIVE: PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEGOTIATION ANALYSIS ACCOUNT AND THE PARADOX OF COHESION .......................... 76 6.1 Comparative Findings of the Case Studies ........................................................... 76 6.2 Lessons from the Negotiation Analysis Account ................................................. 79 6.3 Strategic Thinking: From Goal-Attainment to Problem-Solving ......................... 81 6.3.1 Goal-attainment at What Price? On Policy Coherence ................................. 81 6.3.2 From Actions to Effects: The Paradox of Building Partnership ................... 83 7 RESUMÉ AND OUTLOOK .............................................................................................. 85 8 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 89 APPENDIX .......................................................................................................................... 100 1 List of Interviews ................................................................................................... 101 2 Exemplary Interview Guide ................................................................................... 102 3 Additional Tables and Figures ............................................................................... 105 ii L ist of Tab l es Table 1: Outline of hypotheses to be assessed .................................................................... 21 Table 2: Typology of official MPF objectives .................................................................... 26 Table 3: Comparative results of the country analyses ......................................................... 78 Table 4: EU-wide non-standard non-legally binding agreements linked to readmission . 105 L ist of Figures Figure 1: The target constellation of negotiating migration partnerships ........................... 14 Figure 2: MPF goals - balancing divergent interests? ......................................................... 26 Figure 3: Envisioned impact of EU cohesiveness on the relationship BATNA – compact 64 Figure 4: Actual impact of max. EU cohesiveness on the relationship BATNA – compact / A logical solution ................................................................................................................ 76 Figure 5: The emergence of EU-wide non-legally binding arrangements linked to readmission, 2000 - May 2019 .......................................................................................... 106 Figure 6: 'New borders' of the EU's external migration policy ......................................... 107 Figure 7: Countries of origin of asylum seekers in the EU-28 MSs, 2015 and 2016 (thousands of first-time applicants) ................................................................................... 108 Figure 8: Migratory flows to Europe and country analysis ............................................... 108 Figure 9: Migration flows through Niger .......................................................................... 108 Figure 10: Development of transit migration through Niger 2016-2017 .......................... 108 Figure 11: Allocation of funds under the EU Trust Fund for Africa ................................ 108 Figure 12: National EUTFA projects in Niger by purpose, 2020 ..................................... 108 Figure 13: National EUTFA projects in Mali by purpose, 2020 ....................................... 108 iii L ist of Abbreviations ACP: African, Caribbean and Pacific Appui-conseil en matière de Politique Migratoire / Migration Policy APM: Advice in Niger B/WATNA: Best/Worst Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement Cadre de Concertation sur la Migration / Consultation Framework on CCM: Migration Council: Council of the European Union DG: Directorate-General EEAS: European External Action Service EC: European Commission ECOWAS: Economic Community of West African States EDF: European Development Fund ENP: European Neighbourhood Policy EU: European Union EURA: EU Readmission Agreement European Union Emergency Trust Fund for stability and addressing EUTFA: root causes of irregular migration and displaced persons in Africa