APPENDIX A CODING MaNUaL MAPPING GLOBAL INSECURITY: GLOBAL BLACK SPOTS RESEARCH PROJECT Coding Manual version 6.0 2017 Margaret G. Hermann Catriona Standfield Stuart S. Brown Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs, Maxwell School, Syracuse University Reproduced with the permission of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs © The Author(s) 2020 177 S. S. Brown, M. G. Hermann, Transnational Crime and Black Spots, International Political Economy Series, https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-49670-6 178 APPENDIX A CODING MANUAL PRImaRY RESEaRcH QUESTIONS What are the conditions that lead to the development of Black Spots and their sustainability? What are the factors contributing to the challenging/undermining of state authority within Black Spots? What types of insecurity do the Black Spots export to the outside world? What defensive moves do national and international authorities make to deal with Black Spots? In order to address these questions, we will focus on the following four areas of analysis: 1. Fertile conditions 2. Challenges to state control 3. Export of insecurity 4. State and international responses DEFINING aND DETEcTING BLacK SPOTS There are several indicators pointing to the existence or potential existence of a Black Spot in a particular area. Such indicators are based on informa- tion provided by one of the following sources: • Host government reports that a part of its country falls outside effec- tive governmental control • Another government, institution, or organization reports increased criminal activity in a particular area threatening regional stability and/or security • General warnings of evidence provided by a legitimate source (i.e., government, IGO, NGO, respectable mass-media outlet) of increased illicit activity that is clearly concentrated in or originating from a specific territory Black Spot areas are defined based on the presence of the following features: 1. Lack of effective state governance 2. Dominance by illicit organizations 3. Transnational illicit activities that indicate involvement in the export of insecurity 4. Existence of informal rules governing the area 5. Interest in staying off legal and media radars APPENDIX A CODING MANUAL 179 PaRT I: FERTILE CONDITIONS What Are the Conditions That Lead to the Development of Black Spots and Their Sustainability? Geopolitical Location This variable looks at the distance of the Black Spot from international and internal borders as well as the nature of the terrain in which the Black Spot is located. The fact that the terrain is difficult for a government to control (e.g., jungle or high mountain) may make a difference for a government that is already weak. 0. Geographical Region of World Where Located 1. Europe 2. Middle East 3. Asia 4. Africa 5. Latin America 6. North America 1. Relation to Borders 1. Close to international border 2. Close to internal borders (e.g., natural, administrative) 3. Close to internal and international borders 4. Far from any borders 2. Population Type 1. Predominantly urban 2. Predominantly rural 3. Mixed urban/rural terrain 3. Predominant Terrain Features 1. Lowlands 2. Mountains 3. Mixed 4. Other (describe) 180 APPENDIX A CODING MANUAL 4. Vegetation 1. Predominantly desert 2. Predominantly jungle 3. Predominantly forest 4. None; urban environment 5. Climate Type 1. Arctic 2. Temperate 3. Tropical 4. Desert 5. Mixed (please specify which are involved) Arctic climate: typically very cold in winter and cool temperatures in summer; low humidity, low precipitation. Temperate climate: typically warm to hot temperatures in summer, cool to cold temperatures during winter. Higher humidity in summer, lower humidity in winter. Medium to high precipitation. Tropical climate: typically hot temperatures throughout the year. High humidity and high precipitation. Desert climate: typically cold or very cold at night and hot during day. Low humidity and low to very low precipitation. 6. Lines of Communication 6.1 Presence of formal and informal airfield/airports in Black Spot Indicate the number of formal and informal airfields/airports Kind (in terms of flights available) 1. International 2. National 3. Regional 4. Non-Operational Nature of airport surface 1. Hard (asphalt or cement) 2. Soft (dirt or grass, etc.) APPENDIX A CODING MANUAL 181 Indicate distance from Black Spot under analysis 6.2 Presence of roads in Black Spot 1. Absent 2. Present 1. Highly developed (numerous) 1. High quality (US/EU reference) 2. Low quality (US/EU reference) 2. Poorly developed (few) 1. High quality (US/EU reference) 2. Low quality (US/EU reference) 6.3 Presence of waterway system(s) in Black Spot, that is, waterways used to transport goods/people 1. Absent 2. Present Indicate number Indicate kind (Are they operational? What are they used for?) Indicate distance from the Black Spot (in kilometers, NOT miles) 6.4 Presence of harbors in Black Spot 1. Absent 2. Present Indicate number Indicate kind 1. Sea 2. River Indicate number of docks Indicate distance from the Black Spot (in kilometers, NOT miles) 6.5 Presence of railroads in Black Spot 1. Absent 2. Present 182 APPENDIX A CODING MANUAL 1. Numerous 1. High quality (US/EU reference) 2. Low quality (US/EU reference) 2. Few 1. High quality (US/EU reference) 2. Low quality (US/EU reference) 6.6 Is Black Spot located on traditional/old trading route/area 1. Yes (describe) 2. No 7. Illicit Economy This variable focuses on the nature of the illicit economy in the given area. Of interest is whether that economy is based on a single product/service (e.g., drugs) or whether it is based on a number of illicit products/services (e.g., drugs, weapons, and people). The purpose of this information is to determine whether or not Black Spots tend to be located in areas provid- ing diverse sources of income. This may shed light on where to look for Black Spots. It could also indicate whether certain illicit economies are more likely to be associated with Black Spots or even lead to their emer- gence. In other words, it should reveal more information on whether there is any relationship between the Black Spot and the kind(s) of illicit economy in the area. Codes available for this variable include: 1. Single product/service dominates 2. Multiple products/services dominate 3. None 8. International (In)visibility Record Does the particular location over the time period of the analysis enjoy significant or little attention from the international media? Of importance for this variable is whether Black Spots are, indeed, characterized by remaining in the shadows of media attention, a condition that they seem to relish. If that is true, then the more media attention a particular Black Spot receives, the less attractive it is as a spot for secret transnational orga- nized criminal activity or residence. This variable has three possible codes: 1. Visible (picked up in media) 2. Invisible (not paid attention to) APPENDIX A CODING MANUAL 183 3. Interval (sometimes in media and other times not) 9. Ethnic Composition and Conflict What is the potential significance of the ethnic/national mixture in the area in which a given Black Spot appears? Is the population predominantly homogenous or heterogeneous? Is there conflict evident among the group(s) or not? To account for these possibilities, four codes are available to characterize the ethnic composition/conflict situation in the area: 1. Homogeneous conflicted 2. Homogeneous not conflicted 3. Heterogeneous conflicted 4. Heterogeneous not conflicted 10. Internal Cohesion Does the Black Spot have informal rules or institutions that create internal cohesion among its people? Are such rules indigenous to the culture/his- tory/religion or have they been imposed from the outside onto the area? These informal rules and institutions are separate from formal laws and government. Codes for this variable include: 1. Indigenous (cultural/historical/religious) 2. Imposed 3. Mixed 4. None 11. Black Spot Type Based on the information available about the history of the Black Spot, is this a case of a stable or a pulsing Black Spot? Pulsing Black Spots have a tendency to show up and disappear (e.g., as a result of state or interna- tional reaction). 1. Stable 2. Pulsing 3. Both 4. None Please incorporate a note on the causes if the Black Spot is consid- ered to pulse. 184 APPENDIX A CODING MANUAL 12. Observed Life Span When did the area under investigation become a Black Spot according to the definition we use? Date(s) of appearance (or reappearance) (dd/mm/yyyy) Date(s) of disappearance (unless it still exists) (dd/mm/yyyy) PaRT II: CHaLLENGES TO STaTE CONTROL How Is State Authority Challenged and/or Undermined in the Black Spot? 13. Host State’s Government Type Please use the CIA World Factbook (at www.cia.gov) for country reports and government types. If there are two or more host states involved (i.e., Black Spot is on an international border), please give the name of the country and then the government type code AND name in parentheses. 1. Anarchy 2. Authoritarian 3. Commonwealth 4. Constitutional democracy 5. Constitutional monarchy 6. Federal (Federation) 7. Federal republic 8. Parliamentary democracy 9. Parliamentary monarchy 10. Republic 14. Corruption in the Area Under Analysis This variable describes whether there is strong evidence of corrupt prac- tices in the area. Determining this is important because it could shed light on both the influence of corruptive potential on the fertility of the area under analysis to emerge as a Black Spot, and also demonstrate whether Black Spots, in fact, promote corruption or are based on it. 1. Absent 2. Present APPENDIX A CODING MANUAL 185 15. Corruption in the Host State(s) Use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) from Transparency International at www.transparency.org. Use the following convention: [STATE]-[CPI YEAR]: [POINTS] ([POSITION]/[NO.