An economic approach to urban development and transportation in Metro Manila Lars Christian Roth Program for Business Administration and Economics 8th semester Master Thesis Linkoping University 2000, Manila, Philippines ABSTRACT Background: Even though megacities have many positive features, a number of problems arise, out of which environmental pollution and traffic congestion are the most important ones. Purpose: The objective of this report is to give a broad description of urban development and transportation in Metro Manila. Mode of procedures: To fulfil the above mentioned purpose, close contacts were hold to international organisations such as the Worldbank and the ADB, government agencies such as the DOTC and the MMDA as well as institutes and private companies such as the University of Asia and the Pacific, the Centre for Transportation Studies at the University of the Philippines, and Palafox Associations. Results: Metro Manila is the countries foremost industrial and commercial centre. High population growth rate has a direct effect on the intensity of urbanisation and development in the region and population is expected to reach 13 million people by the year 2015. Urban transport congestion is one of the most pressing problems in Metro Manila as air pollution has a major impact on public health and particularly affects children and the eldarly. ACKNOLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to the people who have helped me to accomplish this thesis. I would like to acknowledge Jan Owen Jansson for deciding to promote my study with a scholarship and for good advice and encouragement throughout the work with my study. One person who has been of great importance for the realisation of my study has once again been Cecilia Romson from the Embassy of Sweden in Manila, for giving me the opportunity to work as a trainee at the embassy during June to August 2000. My work there has formed the background of the thesis and helped me to build up a network of people that turned out to be very helpful during my study. I would also like to thank my fiancé Larah for giving me the necessary moral support. Of importance were of course also all the people who were my interviewees, and I am very grateful for all the information they could provide me with. Figure 1: Map of the Philippines TABLE OF CONTESTS PROLOGUE ........................................................................................................1 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................2 1.1 BACKGROUND..................................................................................................2 1.2 PROBLEM DISCUSSION AND PROBLEM FORMULATION..................................6 1.3 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY ..................................................................................6 1.4 LIMITATIONS ...................................................................................................7 1.5 DISPOSITION ....................................................................................................7 2 THE METHOD OF THE STUDY..................................................................8 2.1 SOURCES OF DATA ..........................................................................................8 3 MANILA.........................................................................................................10 3.1 HISTORY……………………………………………………………………10 3.2 GEOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................12 3.3 LAND USE ......................................................................................................12 3.4 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT................................................................................17 4 TRANSPORTATION ....................................................................................20 4.1 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE.....................................................................22 4.2 PUBLIC TRANSPORT.......................................................................................27 4.2.1 Road Based Transport .........................................................................27 4.2.2 Rail Network ........................................................................................30 4.2.3 Water Transport...................................................................................31 4.3 PRIVATE TRANSPORT....................................................................................31 5 ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................32 5.1 WHAT ARE THE CAUSES OF THE TRANSPORT PROBLEM?.............................33 5.2 WHAT CAN BE DONE? ...................................................................................35 6 CONCLUSIONS.............................................................................................39 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................40 ATTACHMENTS............................................................................................. 44 List of Figures Figure 1: Map of the Philippines Figure 2: Asian Megacities, 1995 and 2025 Figure 3: Asian Urban Population Figure 4: City Map over Makati City Figure 5: Metro Manila Region Figure 6: Population Density Figure 7: Manila Growth Figure 8: Average Travel Speed by City Figure 9: Number of owned Cars per 1 000 Persons by City Figure 10: Number of Traffic Deaths per 10, 000 Cars Figure 11: City Panorama Shanghai Figure 12: Metro Manila Skyway Figure 13: Total Travel Demand in Metro Manila Figure 14: Comparison of Registered Vehicle Types GLOSSERY ADB Asian Development Bank DOH Department of Health DOTC Department of Transport and Communications DPWH Department of Public Work and Highways ESCAP Economic and Social Comission for Asia and the Pacific GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LRT Light Rail Train MMDA Metro Manila Development Authority MMR Metro Manila Region MMTIS Metro Manila Transport Integration Study PM Particular Matter PNR Philippine National Railroad UN United Nations Peso : USD rate (2001/01/18): ~53:1 Peso : SEK rate (2001/01/18): ~ 5:1 PROLOGUE ”The most air polluted cities in the world are located in Asia. One of them is the Philippine capital Manila. That is the finding of a recent survey funded by the World Health Organisation. One has therefore to ask the question: What price development? So far, the implicit answer has been that no price is too high. Authorities have tended to focus on the making of money at the expense of most other things. That is understandable, given the poverty that has long degged Asia. But can any responsible authority really gamble with the health of present and future generations just to satisfy a sense of entitlement? The ultimate goal of any government should be not just for the nation to become richer, glorious though that may be, but to build societies that address all human needs – justice, civility, culture, health and yes, livelihood. As for the argument that many Asian countries can ill afford to be environmentally friendly, the counter-argument would go: Better to spend a little now than a lot later. It is probably cheaper to institute pollution controls while the country is still in development flux. Once everything is rigidly in place it will be that much harder to effect changes. Similarly, once pollution reaches a point where its costs become tangible, then the process of cleaning up will already have become more expensive than trying to curb such pollution in the first place. Almost always, prevention is better than the cure. It is therefore of tremendous importance for development countries to work towards an ecological sustainable economy right from the beginning. To focus on short-term monetary profits and ignore longer term, if less tangible, 1 issues would be short-sighted indeed.” 1 Financial Times 1 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background This chapter provides the reader with the necessary background information and presents the problems that will be discussed in the study. According to a study that was published in the Annual Report of the Asian Development Bank in 1996, Asia will soon see a doubling in the number of its mega cities – urban areas with a population of over 10 million – with an attendant rise in congestion, pollution and crime. Over the past 30 years, the Asian urban population has nearly tripled from 400 million to 1.1 billion people and there has been a corresponding increase in the level of urbanisation. There has been a sharp rise in megacities. Today, Asia has nine megacities – Bejing, Bombay, Calcutta, Jakarta, Osaka, Seoul, Shanghai, Tianjin and Tokyo. Soon four more will be added – Bangkog, Dhaka, Karachi and Manila. If today’s trend is not stopped and the migration from rural to urban areas in Asia continues, the number of megacities will expand to 20 by the year 2025.2 Figure 2: Asian Megacities, 1995 and 2025 Source: ADB, Annual Report, 1996 2 Annual Report of the Asian Development Bank, 1996 2 The most striking difference between the Asian cities of today and 25 years ago is the shift of people and economic activity from rural agrarian communities to urban and industrial centres. This change has been most dramatic in low- and middle-income nations in the East Asian and Pacific regions. From 1970 to 1997, the fraction of their GDP originating in agriculture dropped from 35 to 18 percent, while the rural populations