BOFIT BOFIT Weekly Review Yearbook 2020 The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) BOFIT Weekly Review Editor-in-Chief Juuso Kaaresvirta Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) PO Box 160 FIN-00101 Helsinki Phone: +358 9 183 2268 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.bofit.fi The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not neccessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Finland. BOFIT Weekly Review – Russia 2020 3 Jan 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/01 Russia posts sluggish 2019 growth performance Critical reports from Accounts Chamber on economic forecast that forms basis for Russia’s government budget projections generate questions about budget expenditures Sanctions continue to overshadow Russia’s relations with the West 17 Jan 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/03 Russian president holds annual state-of-the-nation address; government resigns unexpectedly thereafter Ruble appreciation continues in the first two weeks of this year Russian oil fund’s assets doubled last year Oil revenues also boost Russia’s foreign currency and gold reserves Rosstat predicts a decline in Russia’s population over the next two decades 31 Jan 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/05 New Russian government to focus on social issues and national projects Tepid performance for Russian foreign trade in 2019; capital flows closer to balance Russia and Ukraine reach agreement on transit fees for natural gas 14 Feb 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/07 Effects of the coronavirus on the Russian economy remain limited for now Monetary policy easing continues in Russia Rosstat reports Russian GDP up 1.3 % in 2019; revises figures for previous years Slightly lower growth in Russian bank lending 28 Feb 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/09 Central Bank of Russia to sell its controlling stake in Sberbank to the finance ministry Sluggish trends in Russian goods trade last year Russian crude oil production hits record levels LNG drives growth in Russian natural gas production 13 Mar 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/11 Oil price collapse drives down ruble and Russian stock markets Russia’s proposed constitutional amendments allow president Putin to remain in power Russian inflation remained moderate Russian government sector spending increased rapidly last year; oil price drop changes outlook Finnish-Russian trade performed modestly last year 27 Mar 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/13 BOFIT forecasts economic contraction in 2020 for Russia After a selective start, Russia moves to beef up economic support National Welfare Fund now exceeds 11 % of GDP after transfers of last year’s excess oil and gas tax earnings Oil prices, ruble and Moscow stock exchange all down; CBR holds key rate unchanged 9 Apr 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/15 Russia tightens measures to slow spread of coronavirus Ruble exchange rate fluctuations in recent weeks fairly muted compared to the huge swings in oil prices Russia’s inflation tick-up may be fairly transient Rosneft divests its holdings in Venezuela to avoid US sanctions BOFIT Weekly Review – Russia 2020 24 Apr 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/17 New OPEC+ agreement on oil production ceilings fails to calm markets IMF forecast sees sharp contraction in Russian economy this year followed by sluggish recovery next year First-quarter figures show contraction in Russian foreign trade and net capital outflow CBR sells majority stake in Sberbank to the Russian government 8 May 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/19 After relatively robust first-quarter performance, Russia experiences collapse of industrial output and consumption in April CBR lowers key rate Russia’s government spending to be stretched by economic support measures Rapid growth last year in military spending of Russia and China 22 May 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/21 Russian GDP grew by 1.6 % in the first quarter Oil market price volatility calms a bit Shifts in revenues and expenditures eat away Russia’s federal budget surpluses 5 Jun 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/23 Prime minister Mishustin lays out Russia’s road to economic recovery After posting awful April economic numbers, Russia bounced back a bit in May Bank lending growth slows in Russia Finnish-Russian trade dips in first quarter 18 Jun 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/25 Price of Urals oil and Russian ruble continue to strengthen CBR now publishes the RUONIA rate Rising unemployment in Russia While FDI inflows to Russia grew last year, they will likely contract sharply this year Ukraine gets new 18-month IMF loan 3 Jul 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/27 Russia's constitutional reforms gained majority support in referendum as expected Russian economic trends remained weak in May CBR lowers key rate by 100 basis points Slight downward revisions in forecasts for Russia’s economy in 2020 17 Jul 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/29 Russian export earnings and imports decrease sharply; net capital outflow moderate Russia’s federal budget revenues declined especially in May and June, but spending climbed up Increase in debt restructuring and postponed repayment of corporate loans in Russia Russian firms give low marks to government agencies with respect to business environment improvement 31 Jul 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/31 Russian central bank again lowers its key rate Russian economic decline started to slow in June Russian manufacturing on the road to recovery, while extractive industries remain in a deep slump Russian firms suffering major profitability drops this year 14 Aug 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/33 Sharp second-quarter contraction in Russian GDP Signs of growth in Russian goods trade Russia prepares to introduce new measures favouring domestic producers Declines in industrial output vary across Russian regions; retail sales making comeback from depths BOFIT Weekly Review – Russia 2020 28 Aug 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/35 Russian economy continued to recover in July Russian government budget revenues decline precipitously, spending soars Subsidy programmes and rate cuts support bank lending in Russia State support scheme boosts demand for new housing loans in Russia 11 Sep 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/37 Russia’s National Welfare Fund swells; CBR forex and gold reserves hit record high in August Even with stabilisation of oil prices, the ruble has lost value in recent months Russian government spending cushions fixed investment decline Finnish-Russian trade plummeted in second quarter 25 Sep 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/39 Latest BOFIT forecast sees Russian economy returning to modest growth next year Recovery of Russian economy moderated in August Central Bank of Russia keeps its key rate unchanged; previews monetary policy guidelines for 2021– 2023 Covid-19 crisis has increased broad unemployment and part-time employment in Russia 9 Oct 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/41 Rising uncertainty drove ruble depreciation in September Covid-19 subdues private consumption in Russia Russia to rein in government budget spending in coming years to deal with deficit Russia to impose bans on raw wood exports 23 Oct 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/43 Russia’s economic recovery slowed in September Even confirmed coronavirus infections soar in Russia, officials remain cautious about imposing new restrictive measures Signs of recovery in Russian foreign trade, capital outflows rather large 6 Nov 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/45 Russia-US economic relations unlikely to improve under the new US administration Large domestic interest in Russian government bonds Covid-19 cases continue to rise in Russia, consumers increasingly cautious Central Bank of Russia keeps its key rate unchanged Russian government limits the fall of household incomes with social assistance and higher wages 20 Nov 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/47 Russian GDP contracted by 3.6 % in the third quarter Russian goods trade has recovered in recent months Reduced revenues and higher spending caused Russia’s government budget sector deficit to deepen Pandemic halts growth of Russian insurance markets 4 Dec 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/49 Russia’s economy weakened in October Russian government support has helped move fixed investment towards recovery, outlook remains unsure Response of Russian labour market to the economic crisis manifested through various channels Number of confirmed covid-19 cases continues to grow; only moderate tightening of restrictions BOFIT Weekly Review – Russia 2020 18 Dec 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/51 Russian GDP contracted in the third quarter in annual terms, but growth varied considerably across branches Russia imposes price controls in response to rising prices on certain food items Number of banks operating in Russia still declining, but not as fast as earlier Russia seeks to renegotiate tax treaties BOFIT Weekly Review – China 2020 10 Jan 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/02 China’s central bank eases monetary policy and phases out old benchmark rates Yuan depreciated slightly in 2019 New foreign investment law enters into force in China 85 % of China’s energy needs still met with fossil fuels 24 Jan 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/04 As expected, China hit its economic growth target last year, but slowdown continues Thorny issues overlooked in “Phase 1” US-China trade agreement EU, US and Japan propose stricter WTO rules on industrial subsidies Taiwanese economy thrives despite tense political relations with mainland China 7 Feb 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/06 Coronavirus epidemic having wide-ranging impacts on Chinese economy Hard times continue for the Hong Kong economy China’s oil imports set record, but uncertainty over near-term oil demand depresses oil market Chinese debt continued to climb last year 21 Feb 2020 BOFIT Weekly 2020/08 China’s efforts to contain the coronavirus epidemic significantly