ASIAN CITY CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE NETWORK: INDIA CHAPTER PHASE 2: CITY VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS REPORT INDORE & SURAT Submitted to Rockefeller Foundation TARU Leading Edge Gurgaon & Gandhinagar April 2010 CONTENTS 1 Background about ACCCRN (Phase II) – Indore and Surat........................................ 1 2 Indian urban context .................................................................................................. 2 2.1 Urban growth .................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Resource Context - Urban Metabolism & dependence on external resources ..... 3 2.3 Constraints on water supplies and natural resources .......................................... 3 2.4 Urban Infrastructure upgradation, finance autonomy issues ............................... 5 2.5 Administration and 3 Fs, Autonomy (74th amendment) etc. Actual situation..... 5 2.6 Urban Poverty ................................................................................................... 7 2.7 Climate change risks – Indian urban context ..................................................... 8 2.8 Upgrading slums and squatter settlements ....................................................... 10 2.9 Current plans and visions in Urban development ............................................. 12 2.10 JNNURM progress in Surat & Indore:.......................................................... 13 2.11 Major issues of CC risks in urban environment ............................................ 13 3 Vulnerability assessment.......................................................................................... 17 3.1 Objectives ....................................................................................................... 17 3.2 Components of vulnerability in urban context ................................................. 17 3.3 Methodology and tools.................................................................................... 18 3.4 Sample Coverage ............................................................................................ 19 4 INDORE – City Profile ............................................................................................ 25 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 25 4.2 Location and Access ....................................................................................... 25 4.3 Geographical features ..................................................................................... 25 4.4 Demography ................................................................................................... 26 4.5 Economy ........................................................................................................ 27 4.6 City Governance and Institutional mechanism................................................. 28 4.7 Community-Resource-Government-Market linkages....................................... 32 4.8 Climate change Scenarios for Indore ............................................................... 34 4.9 Capacity and Vulnerability assessment............................................................ 44 4.9.1 Education capacity index.............................................................................. 46 4.9.2 Income Stability Index ................................................................................. 47 4.9.3 Social Capacity Index .................................................................................. 49 4.9.4 Drainage and Sewerage vulnerability index .................................................. 50 4.9.5 Water scarcity index..................................................................................... 53 4.10 Industry Profile Indore ................................................................................. 60 4.11 CRGM model .............................................................................................. 64 4.12 Conclusions ................................................................................................. 67 4.13 Adaptation requirements .............................................................................. 67 5 Surat – City Profile .................................................................................................. 69 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 69 5.2 Location and Access ....................................................................................... 69 5.3 Demography, City Growth and trends, Economic base .................................... 70 5.4 Economic Base of Surat .................................................................................. 71 5.5 Administration, Governance Urban Management, Stakeholders ...................... 74 5.6 Community-Resource-Government-Market linkages....................................... 77 5.7 Hydro meteorological Risks ............................................................................ 78 5.8 Climate change Scenario for Surat .................................................................. 80 5.9 Capacity and Vulnerability Assessment .......................................................... 89 ACCCRN – City Vulnerability Assessment Report I 5.9.1 Education capacity index.............................................................................. 91 5.9.2 Income stability index .................................................................................. 92 5.9.3 Social capacity Index ................................................................................... 93 5.9.4 Drainage and sewerage vulnerability index .................................................. 95 5.9.5 Loan and insurance vulnerability index ........................................................ 97 5.9.6 Flood vulnerability index ............................................................................. 98 5.9.7 Hydrometeorological risk exposure .............................................................. 99 5.10 Advanced Warning Mechanisms and Coping Mechanisms ......................... 100 5.11 Industrial profile ........................................................................................ 103 5.12 CRGM model ............................................................................................ 109 5.13 Conclusions ............................................................................................... 112 5.14 Adaptation options ..................................................................................... 113 6 References .................................................................................................... 115 LIST OF BOXES Box (1): Management Innovations for Municipal Resource Mobilization in Indore…….6 Box (2): Basic Services to the Urban Poor - Objectives and components……………....10 Box (3): Integrated Housing & Slum Development Programme - Objectives and coverage ………………………………………………………………………………….12 Box (4): Evolution of vulnerability assessment methods ………………………………..20 Box (5): Increasing Municipal Revenues: Case of Indore……………………………….31 Box (6): Story of the Ukai Dam…………………………………………………………80 LIST OF FIGURES Fig. (1) : People and Environments: Zone of Intervention ................................................ 9 Fig. (2) : GIS based VulnErability anlaysis FRAMEwork .............................................. 19 Fig. (3) : The organization structure Wing of IMC ......................................................... 29 Fig. (4) : Linkages showing relationship between Resources, Market, Community and Government .................................................................................................... 33 Fig. (5) : Indore-Total monthly precipitation anomaly (Futurea – Control)..................... 35 Fig. (6) : Indore-Total monthly precipitation anomaly (Futurea – Control)..................... 36 Fig. (7) : Indore-Monthly rainy days anomaly (Futurea –Control) .................................. 36 Fig. (8) : Indore: Monthly mean dry spell duration anomaly (Futurea –Control) ............ 36 Fig. (9) : Indore-Average minimum temperature anomaly (Futurea -Control) ................ 37 Fig. (10) : Indore-Average maximum temperature anomaly (Futurea -Control)................ 37 Fig. (11) : Average daily rainfall ..................................................................................... 38 Fig. (12) : Average daily rainfall anomaly ....................................................................... 39 Fig. (13) : Average daily minimum temperature .............................................................. 39 Fig. (14) : Average daily maximum temperature .............................................................. 40 Fig. (15) : Anomaly in average daily maximum temperature............................................ 40 Fig. (16) : INDORE: Water Logging 2009 ....................................................................... 41 Fig. (17) : INDORE: Capacity & VulnErability Index across Sample Settlements ........... 45 Fig. (18) : Sewerage System and STP .............................................................................. 52 Fig. (19) : Slum ............................................................................................................... 56 ACCCRN – City Vulnerability Assessment Report II Fig. (20) : Lower class ....................................................................................................