AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF Mehmet S. Altingoz for the degree of Master of Science in Water Resources Policy and Management presented on May 3, 2017. Title: Investigating Management of Transboundary Basins between Sovereign Countries and Non- Sovereign Entities Abstract approved: ______________________________________________________ Aaron T. Wolf There is a significant gap in academia in the field of transboundary water1 management of the non- sovereign entities2. The objective of this master’s thesis is to work towards filling this gap. The first part of this master’s thesis research identifies potential hydro political tension risks of the transboundary basins in Abkhazia, Kosovo, Palestine, South Ossetia, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (NC), entities recognized at least one United Nations (UN) member, however, not recognized by the vast majority3. Hereinafter, these entities are referred to as ‘the partially recognized entities’ or ‘the 1 In this study, the terms [transboundary] basin, water, catchment, and watershed are used interchangeably, and they describe both surface water and groundwater crossing political/regional borders. 2 The term ‘non-sovereign entities’ stands for both de facto states lacking international recognition (i.e. Kosovo and Palestine) and entities that are controlled by numerous armed groups (i.e. Iraq and Syria). 3 The term 'vast majority’ is used to exclude countries not recognized by only a few countries such as China, North Korea, Armenia, and Israel due to uniqueness of their circumstances. breakaway territories’, while countries sharing transboundary water basins are referred to as ‘the sovereign countries’. In addition, the geographical areas where the partially recognized entities and the sovereign countries jointly cover is referred to as ‘the regions’. Fourteen transboundary basin units (TBUs), transboundary basins or basin sections shared among the partially recognized entities and the sovereign countries, were identified. The analytical framework, which De Stefano et al. created in 2012 for their project ‘Climate Change and the Institutional Resilience of International River Basins’ was modified to examine potential hydro political tension risks of the fourteen TBUs. The table below indicates the modified framework: Existence Impact on Transboundary Basin Example TBU Yes No Negative Neutral Positive Conflict Resolution Mechanisms Water Allocation Practices Water Variability Practices Communication, Cooperation, and Coordination Practices Internal Factors External Factors Past Water Conflicts To assess potential hydro political tension risks of the TBUs, the seven components in the table were researched by reviewing the literature and conducting fifteen interviews with government officials, international organizations, and independent scholars. Then, the components having negative effects on the management of the TBUs were totaled for each TBU. Each of the fourteen TBUs were ranked on a scale of zero to seven. Seven is considered to indicate the highest hydro political tension risk while zero designates the lowest. Lessons regarding transboundary water management of the non-sovereign entities from the TBUs were revealed. The anticipated results were that the TBUs would be managed unilaterally, and the issues regarding the TBUs would be ignored since severe ethnic and religious conflicts exist in most of the regions. This anticipation was partly correct since it was found that despite severe ethnic and religious conflicts, in some of the regions, there was significant cooperation regarding the management of the TBUs. This is due to various drivers such as the desire for joining the European Union (EU), the awareness raised by water scarcity, potential joint water projects promising revenue, goodwill, favorable spiritual approaches, etc. It was revealed that the management of the TBUs are vastly influenced by political, economic, social, and cultural relations among the non-sovereign entities and the sovereign countries. Even though there were no management mechanisms in some of the TBUs, there was cooperation; however, in some of the TBUs, although there were many management mechanisms, there was a great amount of tension. The second part of this master’s thesis research investigates the management of the Tigris and Euphrates. Turkey, Syria, and Iraq have long-standing conflicts regarding the management of the Tigris and Euphrates (ET) basin. In addition, the ongoing armed conflicts in Iraq and Syria changed their status to non-sovereign entities controlled by various armed groups. This resulted in the management of the basin becoming even more troublesome. The basin requires urgent attention. This study aims to make management recommendations for the basin. This study aims to make management recommendations for the basin for both during the armed conflicts and post-conflict era. For this goal, the literature was first reviewed to discover the chronological management of the basin. Next, the potential hydro political tension risks in the ET were assessed via the modified analytical framework utilized in this research. Then, the findings from the literature and the modified analytical framework were synthesized with the lessons learned from the partially recognized entities and the previous management failures/successes of the ET to offer proper management mechanisms for the basin. For the ET case, it was anticipated that the basin due to the armed conflicts, the riparians would not communicate and cooperate, and the issues regarding the basin would be ignored. This anticipation was correct. There was no dialogue among the parties. In this part of the research, it was discovered that warm relations, goodwill, and favorable spiritual approaches are very significant for the management of the ET basin. Keywords: Transboundary water management, hydro political tension risks in Abkhazia, Kosovo, North Cyprus, Palestine, South Ossetia, and Western Sahara, the Tigris and Euphrates, Turkey, Iraqi and Syrian armed conflicts ©Copyright by Mehmet S. Altingoz May 3, 2017 All Rights Reserved Investigating Management of Transboundary Basins between Sovereign Countries and Non- Sovereign Entities by Mehmet S. Altingoz A THESIS submitted to Oregon State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Presented May 3, 2017 Commencement June 2017 Master of Science thesis of Mehmet S. Altingoz presented on May 3, 2017 APPROVED: Major Professor, representing Water Resources Policy and Management Director of the Water Resources Graduate Program Dean of the Graduate School I understand that my thesis will become part of the permanent collection of Oregon State University libraries. My signature below authorizes release of my thesis to any reader upon request. Mehmet S. Altingoz, Author ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am indebted to my principal adviser and graduate committee chair Dr. Aaron Wolf for his consistent support and invaluable supervision during my education in the water resources policy and management master's program at Oregon State University. I would like to express my gratitude to my graduate committee members Dr. Gregg Walker and Dr. Todd Jarvis. They were always willing to help me and direct me in the right direction. In addition, I am grateful to Dr. Andrew Valls for serving as my graduate committee representative. I thank to my committee members for their time, support, and guidance. I would like to express my appreciation to Dr. Mary Santelmann, director of the water resources graduate program, for constantly guiding me through my degree. I also express my gratitude to my friends as well as academic and administrative staff from the geography and the water resources graduate programs for their friendship and support. I also thank to them for their interest and input in my research. I express my appreciation to the government workers, politicians, professors, international institutions, and graduate students with whom I collaborated during my research. In addition, I would like to express my gratitude to the interviewees for their time and valuable contributions. Finally, I am indebted to the Turkish Government and the Directorate of Water Management Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs for funding my master’s education as well as their supervision and support. Finally, I am so glad to know and work with you all. I have learned so much from all of you. I offer my best wishes to you all. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................... 5 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 5 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................ 6 INTERVIEWS .......................................................................................................................... 14 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK .............................................................................................. 19 CHAPTER 3 APPLICATION OF THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK ................................. 26 IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL HYDRO POLITICAL TENSION RISKS OF THE TRANSBOUNDARY BASINS OF ABKHAZIA ...................................................................