EXPLAINING THE MODERATE PLATFORM OF THE SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD: AGAINST THE INCLUSION-MODERATION HYPOTHESIS BY HANLIE BOOYSEN A thesis submitted to the Victoria University of Wellington in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Victoria University of Wellington (2018) i ii Abstract Throughout its existence, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (SMB) has consistently maintained a moderate policy on governance. The main aim of this study is to explain this moderation. Previous literature has usually explained moderation in similar movements by an “inclusion-moderation hypothesis”, which holds that moderation results when movements have the opportunity to participate in pluralist political processes. However, the SMB has been progressively excluded from the Syrian political arena since 1963. The inclusion-moderation hypothesis implies, as its converse, that exclusion leads to radicalisation. This study shows that contrary to this expectation, the SMB’s ultimate exclusion from the Syrian political arena in 1982 was in fact the primary driver of its moderate policy. The SMB also participated in parliamentary politics in its early history, and therefore has not moderated over time, as the inclusion-moderation hypothesis would require. Thus, the inclusion-moderation hypothesis does not work for this case, and this dissertation advances an alternate explanation for the SMB’s continued commitment to a moderate policy on governance. This study’s central thesis is that the SMB’s moderate policy on governance can be explained by the Brotherhood’s primary target audience, that is to say, the political force which, in the SMB’s view, can deliver its political objective. As this definition implies, the target audience shifts over time, in accordance with changing circumstances. In 1980, the primary target audience comprised diverse actors in opposition to the al-Asad government: the Fighting Vanguard, the Syrian ulama, and the secularist opposition. In 2001, the audience was the Bashar al-Asad government. In 2004, it was the secularist opposition; and in 2012, it was the foreign sponsors of the secularist opposition. iii iv For a better Syria v vi Acknowledgements I run the risk of being overcome with gratitude in writing these acknowledgements. Thus, it takes some discipline to stick to the production team and the members of the main cast. My supervisors Dr Thomas Pierret and Dr Michael Radich were indispensable in the production of this dissertation. Dr Pierret’s knowledge and insight of Syria and the wider Middle East anchored my research, and cultivated my understanding of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. Dr Radich’s counsel on the technical aspects of doctoral research and presentation, at various levels of the process, made for a challenging, but productive journey. I thank him for his patience and perceptive interventions. My interviewees are of course the leading stars. This dissertation is after all about the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. I appreciate their time, hospitality, openness, and readiness to share their stories, interpretations, and aspirations with me. I hope I have done justice to their trust in me. I am also grateful to Dr Arthur Buehler for his initial support to the project, and for commenting on my draft chapters. I also want to thank Dr Eva Nisa for her helpful contribution. Last, but not least, a huge thank you to Warren Searell for proofreading the dissertation. The support teams are often those working behind the scenes, but without them my PhD experience would have been an even larger challenge. Warren and Zenobia endured, with grace, the pressures of living with a PhD student. My parents provided a foundation of love and support, while my sisters, other members of family, and friends shared in the ups and downs of the PhD journey. Petro Booysen deserves special mention for closely sharing in the journey. Religious Studies at Victoria University provided a well-practised safety net. I found a working environment that was intellectually stimulating, and also caring. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the financial contribution of the William Wallace Gibson Memorial Trust Scholarship in 2013, and the Victoria Doctoral Submission Scholarship in 2017. vii viii Table of Contents List of Tables ....................................................................................................................... xi List of Figures .................................................................................................................... xii Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 1.1 The SMB in the Literature .............................................................................................. 4 1.1.1 The SMB’s Ideology ................................................................................................................ 5 1.1.1.1 The SMB’s Founding Ideology ....................................................................................................... 5 1.1.1.2 The SMB’s Engagement with Democracy ................................................................................. 6 1.1.1.3 Behavioural Change ......................................................................................................................... 8 1.1.2 The SMB’s Adoption of Armed Jihad ............................................................................ 11 1.1.3 Life Cycle Studies ................................................................................................................. 16 1.1.4 The Relationship between the SMB and the EMB in the Literature ............... 16 1.2 Theories on Islamist Moderation ..............................................................................21 1.3 Challenges in the Research Field of “Moderate Islamism” ..............................27 1.3.1 Defining “Moderate Islamism” and “Democracy” ................................................... 28 1.3.1.1 The Inherent Diversity of “Islamism” ...................................................................................... 28 1.3.1.2 The Early Use of the Term “Islamism” .................................................................................... 29 1.3.1.3 Historical Events and the Conceptualisation of “Islamism” ........................................... 30 1.3.1.4 Post-Islamism ................................................................................................................................... 33 1.3.1.5 What is “Moderate”? ...................................................................................................................... 36 1.3.1.6 Defining “Moderate Islamists” ................................................................................................... 41 1.3.1.7 Defining “Democracy” ................................................................................................................... 42 1.3.2 The Paradox of Democracy .............................................................................................. 44 1.4 Chapter Outline ...............................................................................................................50 1.5 Contributions of this Thesis ........................................................................................51 Chapter 2 Methods of Data Gathering and Analysis ......................................... 53 2.1 Research Topic: The SMB’s Policy on Governance .............................................53 2.2 Textual Sources ...............................................................................................................53 2.3 Interview Process ...........................................................................................................55 2.4 Qualitative Data Analysis .............................................................................................58 2.4.1 Coding and Managing the Data ....................................................................................... 58 2.4.2 Analysing the Data ............................................................................................................... 65 2.4.2.1 Primary Theme: Political System ............................................................................................. 66 2.4.2.2 Primary Theme: Syrian Uprising .............................................................................................. 76 2.4.2.3 Primary Theme: Cooperate with Others ................................................................................ 80 2.4.2.4 Primary Theme: Allies ................................................................................................................... 82 2.4.2.5 Primary Theme: Organisational Structure........................................................................... 84 2.4.2.6 Summary of Thematic Analysis ................................................................................................. 91 2.5 Summary ............................................................................................................................93 Chapter 3 Moderation in the 1979 - 1982 Islamic Revolution ..................... 95 3.1 Moderation in the 1980 Statement and Program ...............................................96 3.1.1 Ideological Commitment to a Moderate Policy on Governance ........................ 96 3.1.1.1 Reformism .......................................................................................................................................