DURHAM-SCARBOROUGH BUS RAPID TRANSIT STUDY INITIAL BUSINESS CASE REPORT DURHAM Prepared for Metrolinx by IBI Group Spring 2018 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT DURHAM–SCARBOROUGH BUS RAPID TRANSIT STUDY Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ ES-1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... ES-1 Study Overview ............................................................................................................................... ES-1 Method of Analysis ............................................................................................................... ES-1 Rapid Transit Alternatives Development and Recommendations ........................................ ES-2 Ridership ......................................................................................................................................... ES-3 Business Case Results ................................................................................................................... ES-5 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 The Metrolinx Business Case Framework .................................................................................. 1 1.3 Corridor History .......................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Study Overview .......................................................................................................................... 3 1.4.1 Study Need ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.4.2 Method of Analysis .......................................................................................................... 3 1.5 Corridor Description .................................................................................................................... 4 1.5.1 Durham Region Section .................................................................................................. 4 1.5.2 City of Toronto Section .................................................................................................... 4 2 Corridor Context ................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1 Planning Context ........................................................................................................................ 8 Spring 2018 i IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT DURHAM–SCARBOROUGH BUS RAPID TRANSIT STUDY Table of Contents (cont.) 2.2 Land Use .................................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Corridor Overview ........................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 Downtown Pickering ...................................................................................................... 11 2.2.3 Downtown Oshawa ....................................................................................................... 11 2.2.4 Scarborough Centre ...................................................................................................... 11 2.3 Existing Travel Market .............................................................................................................. 12 2.3.1 Why are people travelling in the study area? ................................................................. 12 2.3.2 How are people travelling in the study area? ................................................................. 12 2.3.3 Where are people travelling to and from in the study area? .......................................... 13 2.4 Transit Ridership ...................................................................................................................... 15 2.5 Traffic Conditions ...................................................................................................................... 18 2.5.1 Existing and Future Traffic Volumes .............................................................................. 18 2.5.2 Intersection Operations ................................................................................................. 19 2.5.3 Pedestrian and Cycling Traffic ....................................................................................... 19 2.5.4 Driveways and Accesses .............................................................................................. 19 3 Development of Rapid Transit Alternatives .................................................................................... 22 3.1 BRT Routing Options ............................................................................................................... 22 3.2 BRT Service Concept ............................................................................................................... 24 3.3 BRT Right-of-Way Options ....................................................................................................... 30 3.4 Stop Spacing and Stop Location .............................................................................................. 31 3.5 Taking a Lane versus Adding a Lane ....................................................................................... 31 ii Spring 2018 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT DURHAM-SCARBOROUGH BUS RAPID TRANSIT STUDY Table of Contents (cont.) 3.6 Constrained Sections ............................................................................................................... 32 3.6.1 Ellesmere Road (east of UTSC) .................................................................................... 33 3.6.2 Pickering Village ............................................................................................................ 33 3.6.3 Downtown Whitby .......................................................................................................... 34 3.6.4 Downtown Oshawa ....................................................................................................... 36 4 BRT Alternatives ............................................................................................................................... 37 4.1 Centre Median .......................................................................................................................... 37 4.2 Curbside ................................................................................................................................... 37 4.3 Hybrid ....................................................................................................................................... 37 5 Strategic Case ................................................................................................................................... 41 5.1 People ...................................................................................................................................... 41 5.1.1 Ridership Forecasts and Travel Demand ...................................................................... 41 5.1.2 Transit User Experience ................................................................................................ 43 5.1.3 Mobility Choice .............................................................................................................. 45 5.1.4 Social Inclusivity and Accessibility ................................................................................. 46 5.1.5 Evaluation Summary – People ...................................................................................... 48 5.2 Places ...................................................................................................................................... 48 5.2.1 Shaping Growth ............................................................................................................. 48 5.2.2 Public Health and Environmental Quality ....................................................................... 50 5.2.3 Community and Heritage ............................................................................................... 50 5.2.4 Evaluation Summary – Places ....................................................................................... 50 Spring 2018 iii IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT DURHAM–SCARBOROUGH BUS RAPID TRANSIT STUDY Table of Contents (cont.) 5.3 Prosperity and Resilience ......................................................................................................... 51 5.3.1 Attracting sustainable development ............................................................................... 51 5.3.2 Affordability .................................................................................................................... 51 5.3.3 Resilience to Advancements in New Mobility Technology ............................................ 51 5.3.4 Evaluation Summary – Prosperity and Resilience ........................................................ 52 6 Financial Case ..................................................................................................................................