IRAN AND THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE – II The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions WORKING DRAFT By Anthony H. Cordesman, Michael Gibbs, Bryan Gold, and Alexander Wilner Major Revision 7: November 4, 2012 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] Cordesman/Gibbs/Gold/Wilner, Iran & The Gulf Military Balance AHC 4.11.12 2 Acknowledgements This analysis s draws on the work of Dr. Abdullah Toukan and a series of reports on Iran by Adam Seitz, a Senior Research Associate and Instructor, Middle East Studies, Marine Corps University. Cordesman/Gibbs/Gold/Wilner, Iran & The Gulf Military Balance AHC 4.11.12 3 Table of Contents Missiles, Nuclear Weapons, and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction ............................................................................................... 8 Putting Iran’s Missile and Nuclear Programs in Perspective ................................. 8 The Near-Term Impact of the Iranian Missile Threat..............................................................9 The Mid and Longer Term Risk of an Iranian Nuclear Weapon and a Nuclear- Armed Missile Threat .............................................................................................................10 The Uncertain Prospects for Effective Negotiations, Agreements, and Verifiable Arms Control ..........................................................................................................................11 The Uncertain Prospects for Containment ............................................................................12 Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program and its Role in US and Iranian Military Competition ............................................................................ 13 Iran’s Shorter Range Missile and Rocket Programs ............................................ 16 Impact on Conventional Strategy ...........................................................................................16 Capabilities of Short-Range Missiles ............................................................................................................ 16 Potential Role of Missiles .............................................................................................................................. 17 Conventional Significance ............................................................................................................................ 18 Short Range Missiles ..............................................................................................................19 Zelzal ............................................................................................................................................................. 19 Fateh-110 ....................................................................................................................................................... 20 Khalij Fars ..................................................................................................................................................... 20 Iran’s Longer-Range Missile Programs ............................................................... 21 Iranian Statements About its Longer-Range Missile Program ..............................................22 Key Uncertainties in Making an Assessment .........................................................................24 Shorter-Range Ballistic Missiles ............................................................................................25 Shahab-1 ........................................................................................................................................................ 26 Shahab-2 ........................................................................................................................................................ 27 Longer Range MRBM/IRBMs ................................................................................................28 Shahab-3 ........................................................................................................................................................ 28 Ghadir-1 ........................................................................................................................................................ 29 Sejjil-2 ........................................................................................................................................................... 30 BM-25 ........................................................................................................................................................... 31 Basing on Mobile Launchers and in Silos .............................................................................32 Cruise Missiles .......................................................................................................................33 Iran’s Possible Search for an ICBM ......................................................................................35 Assessing Warfighting Capabilities of Iran’s Current Longer-Range Missile Force ........................................................................................................ 36 The Accuracy and Reliability Challenge ...............................................................................38 The Range-Payload Challenge ..............................................................................................44 The Warhead Lethality Challenge .........................................................................................44 The CBR Warhead Challenge ................................................................................................45 External Dimensions of Iran’s Missile Program ........................................................................................... 46 The Missile Defense Challenge ............................................................................ 48 Missiles and Political and Psychological Warfighting ......................................... 50 Cordesman/Gibbs/Gold/Wilner, Iran & The Gulf Military Balance AHC 4.11.12 4 The Impact of Retaliatory Threats and Retaliation .............................................. 51 Impact on Policy ....................................................................................................................60 Nuclear Competition: Estimating and Reacting to the Iranian Nuclear Threat ....................................................................................... 61 Iran’s Statements about Its Nuclear Program .......................................................................61 Analyzing the Details of What Is Known and What Is Uncertain ..........................................63 Understanding the Patterns and Uncertainties in Iran’s Efforts .................................................................... 64 Union of Concerned Scientists ................................................................................................................. 70 ISIS Estimates and Reports ...................................................................................................................... 71 Bipartisan Policy Council Figures ............................................................................................................ 94 IAEA Figures ......................................................................................................................................... 103 ISIS’s Estimates of Current and Future Breakout Scenarios as of August, 2012 ................................... 111 The Data in the IAEA Report of November 8, 2011 ............................................................118 US Official Views of Iran’s Competition in Nuclear and Missile Efforts ......... 142 Timing Iran’s Bomb .................................................................................................................................... 144 Is There a Formal Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program? .............................................................................. 145 Focusing On Proliferation Rather than Potential Nuclear Force ................................................................. 146 The Chemical and Biological Dimension .................................................................................................... 147 The Impact of Iranian Nuclear Weapons on US and Iranian Competition ........ 148 Iran’s Use of Nuclear Weapons Once It Possesses Them ...................................................148 The Threshold State and “Wars of Intimidation” ........................................................................................ 148 The Transition Stage: Launch on Warning? Launch Under Attack? ........................................................... 149 Iranian Efforts to Use a Survivable or “Mature” Nuclear Force ................................................................. 150 US Responses to Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Efforts ...........................................................150 Direct Negotiations ..............................................................................................................151 Missile Defense ....................................................................................................................154 “Extended Deterrence” .......................................................................................................155 US Preventive Strike Options ...............................................................................................155 The Diplomacy and Politics