Globalized United States­Japan Alliance and Japan's Security in the 21st Century Takao SEBATA Abstract This paper analyzes United States bases in Japan and Japan's options in security and foreign policy in the 21st century. First, the paper discusses the roles of and the problems over United States bases in Japan, taking into consideration potential threats to Japan. It focuses on whether United States forces in Japan really defend the country and whether there are potential threats to Japan. The author contends that it is the SDF that really defends Japan, not United States forces and that there are little potential threats to the country. The author also argues that the Japanese Government pays up to 75 percent of the cost to keep United States bases in Japan. Neverthe­ less, United States soldiers harm the Japanese people. The paper concludes that Japan must ex­ plore an alternative path, rather than continuing relying on the Security Treaty. The author recommends more independent foreign policy of Japan in the 21st Century. Such recommenda­ tions include signing the peace treaty with Russia and establishing diplomatic relations with North Korea. In other words, keeping good relations with Russia and North Korea enhances Japan's security as well as Japan's diplomatic options. Introduction Over the last fifteen years, United States­Japan alliance transformed globally from the defense of Japan and security of the Far East to the defense of the Asia­Pacific region to the Indian Ocean and the Middle East. It is also clear that the SDF further became integrated into a part of United States forces. After the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, both the United States and the Japanese Governments were looking for the raison d'etre for maintaining the Security Treaty and the SDF because Japan did not face little imminent threat. In 2001, terrorists attacked the United States, which later retaliated against them by attacking Afghanistan. In 2003,the Japanese Government immediately declared Japan's support for the war when the United States launched an assault against Iraq. Then, Japan dispatched the Ground SDF to Iraq in 2004 while the fighting was still going on. It was the first time that Japan dispatched armed forces to the country which was in combat since Japan regained her independence in 1952. It was a new departure for Japan because this dispatch differed from the policy of the past Japanese Government based on“peace diplomacy.” Japan began to make use of the SDF as a means of implementing her foreign policy. This new policy indicates that Japan aims at becoming a“normal state”under the Security Treaty. Japan has also paid generous host nation support to United States bases in Japan since 1978.Asa ―221― Journal of the Faculty of Global Communication, University of Nagasaki No.10(2009) result, it is much cheaper to keep United States bases in Japan than in the United States. That is a major reason why United States bases do not decrease. Against the abovementioned background, it is important to explore Japan's options in security and foreign policy in the 21st century. It is also important to examine the roles of and the problems over United States bases in Japan and potential threats to Japan since United States bases in Japan symbolize the essence of the Security Treaty. The paper argues that Japan must not rely on the Security Treaty, but explore a new foreign policy which is more independent and regains sovereignty. United States Bases in Japan and Potential Threats to Japan Since the end of World War II, United States forces and bases have never left Japan. Many Japanese people believe that United States forces in Japan and the Security Treaty defend Japan. However, many Americans do not think so. According to public opinion polls conducted in the United States in March 1999, 49 percent of those who participated in the survey said that United States forces in Japan were there not for the defense of Japan, but for the prevention of resurgence of Japan's militarism or Japan's power projection. Only 12 percent said for the defense of Japan.1 However, it is the SDF that defends Japan. One can argue that United States forces in Japan and the Security Treaty are useful only as deterrent. About 35,000 to 40,000 United States troops are stationed in Japan, but more than half of these troops are not combat troops, but logistical support troops. Since it is extremely difficult to imagine that Japan alone would be at­ tacked, United States forces might already engage themselves in fighting in other areas. As a result, United States forces might not come to rescue Japan soon or the number of troops might not be enough to defend Japan. As the 1997 Guidelines state, the SDF has a primary responsibili­ ty for the defense of Japan.2 If the deterrence is broken, many Japanese cities would be destroyed and many people would be killed. Therefore, even if United States would come to help Japan after an attack, such a help would not mean much to the Japanese people since by the time United States troops arrive in Japan, a large number of the people would already be dead. If Japan is an important country to an international society, the United Nations would organize multinational forces led by the United StatesandcometohelpJapaninanemergency.Kuwaitin1991 is a case in point. There was no military alliance between the United States and Kuwait. There were no United States troops stationed in Kuwait. Nevertheless, the United States organized multinational troops under the auspices of the United Nations and rescued Kuwait. Therefore, one can argue that the United Nations could be deterrent. Japan does not face any imminent threat. It is extremely difficult to think any country that would attack Japan, including North Korea, Russia, and China. Some might think that North Korea is a threat to Japan. North Korea has ballistic missiles and might have nuclear weapons. However,theseweaponsaremainlyagainstSouthKoreaandtheUnitedStates.NorthKorea makes full use of nuclear weapons as a diplomatic card against the United States. North Korea wants to keep her political system and unify the Korean Peninsula under a North Korean leader­ ―222― Takao SEBATA : Globalized United States­Japan Alliance and Japan's Security in the 21st Century ship. North Korea also wants Japan to make compensation for her colonial rule. Japan can estab­ lish diplomatic relations with North Korea in exchange for economic assistance. Therefore, if there are no United States troops or bases in Japan or if Japan maintains a neutral position, there would be little reason that North Korea would attack Japan. There is an issue of abduction of Japanese citizens, but Japan cannot solve this problem using the SDF. It is important for Japan to normalize the relations with North Korea so that North Korea would be willing to talk about the abduction issue and Japan could enhance her security. One might think that Russia would attack Japan. However, Russia is a democracy and holds the Northern Territories. In other words, Russia is satisfied with a current territorial issue. If there is a possibility of war between Russia and Japan, it is the time when the SDF would attack the Northern Territories. Under Article 9 and current international situation, it is unthinkable that the SDF would attack the Northern Territories. Russia needs money and technology from Japan. Russia and Japan are recently cooperating in trade of natural gas through Sakhalin I and II. It is Japan's interests to promote trade with Russia in oil and natural gas because Japan could reduce import of oil from the Middle East. Trade with Russia would certainly provide Japan with economic security. Moreover, if Japan could conclude a peace treaty with Russia, the treaty would also enhance Japan's security. Japan should abandon the Northern Territories in exchange for the peace treaty, if necessary. China is not a threat to Japan either. China wants trade and technology from Japan. If Japan can maintain a neutral position when there is a conflict between China and Taiwan, there is little possibility of China attacking Japan. In recent years, China has been Japan's largest trading par­ tner although the United States is still an important customer in Japan's export. Although the Chinese Navy is recently growing and has a plan to have two conventional aircraft carriers by 2015 and two nuclear powered conventional aircraft carriers around 2020, this naval power is aimed at United States Navy. There is a problem over the Senkaku (Diaoyutai Qundao in China) Islands between China (and Taiwan) and Japan, but this issue would not lead to a conflict. China needs peaceful environment in conducting trade and, given the fact that trade in East Asia is rapidly growing, it is inconceivable that China would attack Japan over the territorial issue. If Japan could keep active trade relations with China and would not intervene in a Taiwan problem, China would not become a security headache for Japan. All three countries mentioned above do not pose a threat to Japan. Therefore, even if Japan abrogates the Security Treaty with the United States, Japan would not have to strengthen the SDF. It is not well known among the Japanese people that Japan has already the most powerful conventional armed forces in Asia including six AEGIS destroyers, 202 F-15 interceptors, 94 P 3Canti­submarine reconnaissance airplanes, and four AWACSplanes. The Ground SDF is as strong as the British Army. The Maritime SDF has the second largest escort vessels in the world.TheAirSDFisasstrongastheBritish,French,orGermanAirForces.3 Regarding United States bases in Japan, it is inconceivable that the United States abandons Japan by closing her bases.