HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Patricia Information from NHC Advisory 15, 10:00 AM CDT Friday October 23, 2015 Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Patricia is moving northward toward landfall in southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 200 mph with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 200 mph Position Relative to 125 miles SW of Manzanillo Speed: (category 5) Land: 195 miles S of Cabo Corrientes Today between Puerto Est. Time & Region: Vallarta and Manzanillo Min Central Pressure: 880 mb Coordinates: 17.6 N, 105.5 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 155 mph or greater 175 miles Bearing/Speed: N or 5 degrees at 10 mph Winds Extent: Speed: (category 5) Forecast Summary The NHC forecast map (below left) shows Patricia making landfall later today on southwestern Mexico as a major hurricane (category 3+). The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track which is shown in bold black. To illustrate the uncertainty in Patricia’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown in pale gray. Hurricane conditions should reach the hurricane warning area during the next several hours, with the worst conditions likely this afternoon and this evening. Tropical storm conditions are now spreading across portions of the warning area. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the hurricane watch area today. Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8-12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Patricia are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Patricia Forecast Windfield for Tropical Storm Patricia (Central Pacific Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 12:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. © Copyright 2015 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. 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The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning - meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours - is in effect for San Blas to Punta San Telmo. A Hurricane Watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area - is in effect for East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area - is in effect for East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas and North of San Blas to El Roblito. Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities at 5 AM PDT Friday, October 23, for the next five days The maps below show probabilities of maximum sustained wind speeds over the next five days. The map at lower left shows a large swath of southwestern Mexico with greater than 90% chance of seeing maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 mph or greater. The map at lower right shows a smaller area with significant chances of seeing maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 74 mph. NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation National Hurricane Center The map at right illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone formation Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on October 23, 2015 potential over the next 48 hours in the Eastern Pacific. There are currently no such areas shown on the map. But the NHC notes that an area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next few days while it moves slowly toward the east-northeast or northeast. Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 10 percent. And formation chance through 5 days is also low at 20 percent. Contact us Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435 [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 Page 2 of 2 .