PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF EGYPT Ph.D. Thesis Rashad Feriz Zaky Sawires Seismic Hazard and Active Tectonics Research Group Department of Physics University of Jaén Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Egypt Ph.D. THESIS to obtain the degree of Doctor by the University of Jaén Ciencia y Tecnología de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente Ph.D. Program Defended by Rashad Feriz Zaky Sawires Seismic Hazard and Active Tectonics Research Group, Department of Physics, University of Jaén Thesis Advisor: José A. Peláez, Ph.D. July 2017 i ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ ii José A. Peláez, Ph.D. Associate Professor in Geophysics, Physics Department, University of Jaén, Spain Certifies: that the present memory, entitled “Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Egypt”, has been developed under my supervision. Moreover, I must inform favorably to the examination of this Thesis in order to obtain the Ph.D. degree at the University of Jaén. Assoc. Prof. José A. Peláez Department of Physics University of Jaén A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree at the University of Jaén, Spain Rashad Feriz Zaky Sawires B.Sc. in Geophysics, Assiut University (2005) M.Sc. in Applied Geophysics, Assiut University (2011) Jaén, July 2017 iii ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ iv THOSE WHO JOYFULLY LEAVE EVERYTHING IN GOD’S HAND WILL EVENTUALLY SEE GOD’S HAND IN EVERYTHING. DEDICATION To my parents, The reason of what I become today. Thanks for your great support and continuous care. To my wife, Her tender-loving care, patience, and dedication to me and our children, have been a constant source for inspiration for me while doing this thesis. Acknowledgements ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would like to thank GOD, for having made everything possible by giving me strength and courage to do this thesis. Moreover, I would like to extend my gratefulness to the following research centers and individuals for their help during this work. This research work is supported by the Egyptian Ministry of the Higher Education (Cultural Affairs and Missions Sector, Cairo). It has been conducted as a Joint-Supervision Mission between the Department of Geology, Assiut University (Egypt), and the Department of Physics, University of Jaén (Spain). I would like to express my sincere thanks, appreciation and gratitude to the Egyptian Government for giving me the opportunity to do this work attending different research teams in these scientific institutions. I would like to express my special appreciation and thanks to Prof. José A. Peláez (Department of Physics, University of Jaén), for his valuable supervision and discussion. You have been a tremendous mentor for me. I would like to thank you for encouraging my research and for allowing me to grow as a research scientist. The suggestions and ideas you provided helped to improve the thesis considerably. Moreover, I thank you for inviting me to carry out my research work among your research group (Spanish Seismic Hazard and Active Tectonics Research Group) and providing me with all facilities I need during my stay in Spain. My gratitude also goes to Prof. Hamza A. Ibrahim (Geology Department, Assiut University). He has done a lot of effort with me during the completion of the administrative requirements which were necessary for my travel to Spain. His advice on my research work as well as on my career have been priceless. I wish to express my deepest gratitude to Prof. Raafat E. Fat-Helbary (Manager of Aswan Regional Earthquake Research Centre, Aswan, Egypt) for his close guidance, comments, advice and for providing me with all possible data during this research project. I am deeply grateful to Prof. Mario Ordaz (Instituto de Ingenieria, UNAM, Mexico) for providing me the most recent software (CRISIS, 2014) to do our assessment. Also, appreciation goes to Dr. Mohamed Hamdache (Département Etudes et Surveillance Sismique, CRAAG, Algiers, Algeria) for his valuable suggestions during his visits to the University of Jaén. Moreover, to Dr. Francesco Panzera (Università degli studi di Catania, Italy) for giving me some valuable comments about the seismic hazard deaggregation. Thanks also goes to Dr. Jesús Henares (University of Jaén) for helping me process the focal mechanism solutions data and interpret the stress inversion results. Also, I would like to thank Prof. Samir Riad (Geology Department, Assiut University), and Prof. Ahmed Deif (NRIAG, Helwan, Cairo) for providing me some important research papers during this work. Finally, thanks also are go to Prof. Amin Saleh Aly (Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University), who provides me some critical information about the Egyptian building codes. A special thanks to my family. Words cannot express how grateful I am to my parents, my wife, and my children for all of the sacrifices that you have been made on my behalf. Rashad Sawires July, 2017 CONTENTS Page • Resumen ………...…...………………….………….……………… 1 • Abstract …………..…...…………………………………………… 5 • C hapter 1: Introduction…………………………………………… 8 • C hapter 2: A Review of Seismic Hazard Assessment Studies and Hazard Description in the Building Codes for Egypt…………….... 15 • C hapter 3: An Earthquake Catalogue (2200 B.C. to 2013) for Seismotectonic and Seismic Hazard Assessment Studies in Egypt... 46 • C hapter 4: Delineation and Characterization of a New Seismic Source Model for Seismic Hazard Studies in Egypt………….......... 83 • C hapter 5: Updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Values for Egypt.................................................................................................. 127 • C hapter 6: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Deaggregation for Selected Egyptian Cities…………………………………………… 150 • Summary, Conclusions and Recommendations………………… 170 • Bibliography ………………………………………………………. 178 List of Abbreviations LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS A.D. “Anno Domini” translated as “In the year of the Lord” B.C. Before Christ BSSC Building Seismic Safety Council CMT Centroid Moment Tensor DSHA Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment/Analysis DST Gulf of Aqaba-Dead Sea Transform Fault ECLF Egyptian Code for the Calculation of Loads and Forces ECP Egyptian Code of Practice EDRDC Earthquake Disaster Reduction Data Centre EHB Engdahl, E.R., van der Hilst, R., and Buland, R. (1998) Bulletin EMR Eastern Mediterranean Region EMSC European Mediterranean Seismological Centre ENSN Egyptian National Seismic Network EGS Egyptian Geological Survey EGSMA Egyptian Geological Survey and Mining Authority ESEE Egyptian Society of Earthquake Engineering ETH Eidgenšssische Technische Hochschule/ Institute of Technology Eurocode 8 European Building Code FMS Focal Mechanism Solution/ Fault Plane Solution GEM Global Earthquake Model GIS Geographic Information System GMPE Ground-Motion Prediction Equation/ Ground-Motion Attenuation Model/ Ground-Motion Scaling Relationship GMT Generic Mapping Tools Software GPS Global Positioning System GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project/Program HRD High Resolution Digitizer ICC-IBC International Building Code IISEE International Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Imax Maximum Intensity IPRG Institute of Petroleum Research and Geophysics/ Seismological Bulletin of Israel ISC International Seismological Centre List of Abbreviations ISS International Seismological Summary mb Body-wave Magnitude mD Duration Magnitude ML Local Magnitude Mmax Maximum Expected Magnitude obs Largest Observed Magnitude M max Mmin Minimum Magnitude MS Surface-wave Magnitude MW Moment Magnitude * MW Equivalent Moment Magnitude NEHRP National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program NEIC National Earthquake Information Centre NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRIAG National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics PDE Preliminary Determination of Epicenters PGA Peak Ground Acceleration PSHA Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment R Stress Ratio R’ Stress Index RCMT Regional Centroid Moment Tensor SA Spectral Acceleration SAmax Maximum Spectral Acceleration SHARE Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe SHmax Maximum Horizontal Stress Axis SHmin Minimum Horizontal Stress Axis UBC The Uniform Building Code UHS Uniform Hazard Spectra USGS United States Geological Survey 30 VS Average Shear-wave Velocity in the Upper 30 m of the Soil Profile WCC Woodward-Clyde Consultants WWSSN World-Wide Standardized Seismograph Network ZUR-RMT Zurich Moment Tensor, Swiss Seismological Service 1 Resumen RESUMEN En este estudio se ha llevado a cabo una evaluación de la peligrosidad sísmica probabilista para Egipto en términos de los valores de la aceleración pico del suelo (PGA) y la aceleración espectral (SA). También se presentan curvas de peligrosidad, espectros uniformes de diseño, y resultados de desagregación para las ciudades más importantes, enfocado a la mejora del conocimiento sobre ingeniería de terremotos en la región. Inicialmente, se ha realizado una revisión de todas las evaluaciones de peligrosidad sísmica publicadas y disponibles, además de las acciones sísmicas incluidas en los códigos de construcción, a la hora de mostrar el estado