APTER CHAPTER 4 4Chapter 4 Future Needs & Improvements Plans The Beaverton Transportation System Plan Update addresses system needs for today and identifies additional facilities required to serve future growth. This chapter summarizes the assumptions and methodology used to forecast traffic growth and presents improvements to address the long-term system improvements for all travel modes. Future Land Use and Demand To understand how travel will change by 2035 in Beaverton, regional forecast tools developed and maintained by Metro were applied within the city planning area. 0HWUR¶V0HWUR6FRSHis a land use model that determines where residential and employment growth is most likely based on city comprehensive plans, travel costs, proximity, and a wide range of other socio-economic factors. City staff coordinates with Metro staff in preparing updates to the land use forecasts to HQVXUHFRQVLVWHQF\ZLWKFLW\REMHFWLYHV7KHRWKHUSULPDU\WRROLV0HWUR¶Vregional travel demand model, which estimates the type, mode and routes of trips made throughout the region. The travel model assumptions in Beaverton were reviewed for consistency with adopted plans before making forecasts for this update. The resulting traffic volume projections are used to identify potential roadway capacity deficiencies and for evaluating alternative circulation improvements. This section describes the forecasting process including key assumptions and the land use scenario developed from the existing Comprehensive Plan designations and allowed densities. Projected Land Uses Land use is a key factor in developing a functional and effective transportation system. The amount of land that is planned to be developed, the type of land uses, and how the land uses are mixed together have a direct relationship to expected demands on the transportation system. Understanding the amount and type of land use is critical to taking actions to maintain or enhance transportation system operation. Projected land uses were developed for areas within the urban growth boundary and reflect the &RPSUHKHQVLYH3ODQDQGFRRUGLQDWLRQZLWK0HWUR¶VODQGXVHSURMHFWLRQV&RPSOHWHODQG use data sets were developed for the following years. Existing 2005 Conditions (most current base land use data for the Metro region) Future 2035 Conditions The base year travel model is updated periodically, and for this study effort the available base model provided by Metro was for 2005. Land uses were inventoried throughout Beaverton by Beaverton Transportation System Plan DRAFT December 23, 2009 Future Needs & Improvements Plans | Future Land Use and Demand Page 4-1 the City, Washington County, and Metro. This land use database includes the number of dwelling units, retail employees, service employees, and other employees. For transportation forecasting, the land use data is stratified into geographical areas called transportation analysis zones (TAZs), which represent the sources of vehicle trip generation. There are 101 Metro TAZs within or adjacent to the Beaverton TSP Update study area that were further refined as part of this plan. These 101 TAZs were subdivided into 464 TAZs to more specifically represent land use in Beaverton and allow forecasting of the City roadway network 0HWUR¶VPRGHOIRFXVHVRQVLJQLILFDQWUHJLRQDOIDFLOLWLHV 7KHGLVDJJUHJDWHGPRGHO]RQH boundaries are shown in Figure 4-1. Table 4-1 summarizes the land uses for existing conditions and the future scenario within the Beaverton TSP Update study area. While these summaries only outline land use in Beaverton for the purposes of this study, the travel demand forecasts that have been evaluated reflect the regional land use growth throughout the Portland metropolitan area (including growth in areas such as North Bethany and West Bull Mountain). A detailed summary of the uses for each TAZ within the Beaverton study area is provided in Appendix B. Table 4-1: Beaverton Land Use Summary Percent Percent Annual Land Use 2005 2035 Increase Increase Increase Households (HH) 67,095 96,995 29,900 44% 1.2% Retail Employees (RET) 23,395 36,240 12,845 55% 1.5% Service Employees (SER) 30,342 64,732 34,390 113% 2.6% Other Employees (OTH) 40,074 46,719 6,645 17% 0.5% Note: Annual rate shown as compounded rate for illustrative purposes only to report the change in land use. Annual growth rates from 2005 to 2035 are lower than the 1994 to 2020 annual growth rates for each land use. Annual growth rates from 1994 to 2020 were about 0.5% higher for HH and OTH, and 1% higher for RET. As land uses are changed in proportion to each other (i.e. there is a significant increase in retail employment relative to household growth), there will be a shift in the overall demands of the transportation system. Retail land uses generate higher amounts of trips per acre of land than households and other land uses. The location and design of retail land uses in a community can greatly affect transportation system operation. Additionally, if a community is homogeneous in land use character (i.e. all employment or residential), the transportation system must support significant trips coming to or from the community rather than within the community. Typically, there should be a mix of residential, commercial, and employment type land uses so that some residents may work and shop locally, reducing the need for residents to travel long distances. Table 4-1 indicates that significant growth is expected in Beaverton in the coming decades. The transportation system in Beaverton should be monitored to make sure that land uses in the plan are balanced with transportation system capacity. This TSP balances needs with the forecasted 2035 land uses. Beaverton Transportation System Plan DRAFT December 23, 2009 Future Needs & Improvements Plans | Future Land Use and Demand Page 4-2 1191 1147 D This product is for information purposes only and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable V L for, legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users of this information should review, or B consult, the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information. City of Beaverton Y 1148 N This map represents the best available data at the time of publication. While reasonable effort A has been made to insure the accuracy of the information shown on this page, the City of 1145002 H 1148001 T Beaverton assumes no responsibility or liability, for any errors, omissions, or use of this 1148 E information. Metadata available upon request. 1148002 1145 11B 45004 FIGURE 4-1 NW 1149001 115 0C0O03 1150002 1145001 RN 1129001 1149 ELL 1145005 RD N Transportation 1149 1150 112W9 1152001 1150 1150001 1129003 1097 1152 1150004 1129 System Plan 1150005 CO 1129004 R 1153002 1152 1097N001 1097 1153003 1128 EL 26 L 1089002 1098 1098001 1153 1151001 1128002 1128 R 1153 1151002 1151 E 1098 D Transportation V 1153001 A 1091 1155001 1151 1126004 N H T 1089 1154 1098002 W 1154 11550041151003 1128005 8 1128004 1091 1089 Analysis Zones (TAZ) 1186001 1155 5 1128003 1126005 B 1089001 1 1091002 1155 1155002 A 1155003 1127001 R 1157001212710102570W 06 1091001 N 1186 S E 1157001 1128001 D S 1085 1126 R 1186 1127004 1127007 V 11561156004 1157003 L 1099 D 1127 1126 B 1157 1184 11560012156 Y 1090002 1090 SW1184 1157 S 1126003 A 1156003 1127002 W R 1099001 1063001 B 118400A1 W R 1099 1090001 1090 E S A 1126002 E LK U V LIN 1158006 ER 1099002 1100005 A E 1127 M 1084 1158005 115600 11R15D8004 1158007 RD H 1127003 112600W1 T 1099004 1090003 S D 5 1158003 8 V 1065 1063 L 1084 1 1158002 1159 1158 1099003 B 1066 W 1159003 1125 1100001 1100 1084001 S 1063 N 1084002 1066 L 1083001 SW D 1159002 1125 1100 L BA R 1159 I RNE S H 1082001 1067 54 1100003 1083 11580011160003 1100002 10180833003 R U 1101 1100004 S 2 1159001 SW A 1083002 6 1160001 SW MERLO RD D 1082002 1067 1160004 JE CE NK1101 1082004 1068001 INS SW 1082 1062003 1160002 1160 1124 RD 1160 1124004 1101001 1062 11020011082 1082003 1178001 1062 1124 1102002 1124001 1123005 1068002 1178 1161 1123004 1102003 1068 1124003 1062001 1123006 1102 1068 1177 1161 1123 1102 1100811 1062002 1061 55 1104 1102004 1061003 1161002 1162 1124002 7 1177 1123001 1061001 55 1161001 1123002 1 10690071069006 1061 1162001 1123 1104 1103 2 1162 11041010034004 1080001 1163 1120 1068004 1068003 1104002 Y 1061002 TU 1163001 RD ALATI 1163002 1121 1123003 11040011 1103015 1080002 1069N00Y2ON 1069 N 1163004 1 1 W 1069003 A 1163 1120001 120 1105008 10 03 1103014 W C 1176004 1122 30 01 1069001 S 1176002 1163003 1120002 11050061 12 3 H 1164003 VA 11200013 121 1105009 10 1164005 LLEY 30 1103 1080003 1069004 1069 1164001 H 1122 1105007 11 1103010 1080 WY 11 1069005 1060004 1176 11015105 031103009 1060 1164 1164 1105005 00 1176001 11641010644002 1119 8 1103006 1060006 004 5 7 1078001 1070 1060001 1060 1060005 1119001 1118 11050021105001403 300 300 1080 1078002 1119 1118 11050013 110 110 1060002 1119002 RD 1105001 001 21079007 1060003 1165001 GTON 103 300 03 1078003 SW BEAVE 1166 1165 1165002 RMIN 1 110 030 1078 RTON HILLSDALE H 1166 1165 SW FA 1116 1117 1106001 N 11 1079009 WY E 1106 E 1166002 1106 10O 79006 1078 V L 1079 1059001 S V 1078006 1070001 1070003 A 1070 1116003 107L 9010 1078004 1070002 1117 A 1059 T 1058001 1115003 1116 1115005 A A 1079 008 N 11150101815004 D 1059 1166004 H R R 11160021117001 1107001 1W079004 1078005 Y 1116001 D E R 1166003 D 1107 1079005 R T 1115 R E V 1079003 1071004 F 1115007 S L 1107 A S E L B 1115006 B 1166005 1115 OL 1057002 1113004 M 1115009 1113002 W H 1108001 1108002 1079 1077002 C 1108003 O S 1058 W L 1079001 1079002 W 1057001 SW S 1077 11S6W70 0O2A ALLEN BLVD 1071 S 1058