1800 K Street NW, Suite 1010 Washington, DC 20006 www.keia.org | @KoreaEconInst 2014 t. 202.464.1982 Vol. 25 2014 Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies Academic U.S.-Korea Joint 2014 25 Vol. ASIA’S SLIPPERY SLOPE: TRIANGULAR TENSIONS, IDENTITY GAPS, CONFLICTING REGIONALISM, AND DIPLOMATIC IMPASSE TOWARD NORTH KOREA JOINT EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: GILBERT ROZMAN, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY South Korea’s Triangular Relations Divergence on Economic Regionalism U.S.KOREA Japan-South Korea-U.S. Relations Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Integration: Sue Mi Terry U.S. Strategy and Approach Matthew P. Goodman ACADEMIC The Seoul-Beijing-Tokyo Triangle: Terra-centric Nordpolitik vs. Oceanic Realpolitik Japan and Regional Integration Dominoes: Sung-Yoon Lee Golden Opportunity or Another Political Failure? Takashi Terada STUDIES China-South Korea-U.S. Relations Gilbert Rozman Korean Bridge: Balancing Asian Economic ASIA’S SLIPPERY SLOPE: TRIANGULAR Regionalism Between the United States and China TENSIONS, IDENTITY GAPS, Russia, China, and the Korean Peninsula Jin Kyo Suh Valery Denisov and Alexander Lukin CONFLICTING REGIONALISM, AND China’s Choice: To Lead or to Follow on DIPLOMATIC IMPASSE TOWARD Asian Economic Integration National Identity Approaches to Zhang Xiaotong NORTH KOREA East and South Asia EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Japan’s National Identity Gaps: A Framework for New Thinking on Diplomacy Toward North Korea Analysis of International Relations in Asia GILBERT ROZMAN Gilbert Rozman South Korea’s Search for a New Diplomatic Strategy Toward North Korea; Trustpolitik National Identity and Attitudes Toward North as a Goldilocks Approach? Korean Defectors Shin-wha Lee Jiyoon Kim What to Do about North Korea Bridging the Chinese National Identity Gap: Mark Fitzpatrick Alternative Identities in Hong Kong and Taiwan Syaru Shirley Lin Purge of Jang Song-Taek and its Impact on China’s Policy Toward North Korea Identity and Strategy in India’s Asia-Pacific Policy Zhu Feng and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga Deepa M. Ollapally Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies 2014 | Volume 25 Editor-in-Chief Gilbert Rozman Princeton University KEI Editorial Board Editor-in-Chief: Gilbert Rozman, Princeton University KEI Editor: Nicholas Hamisevicz Contract Editor: Gimga Group Design: Gimga Group The Korea Economic Institute of America is registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act as an agent of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a public corporation established by the Government of the Repubic of Korea. This material is filed with the Department of Justice, where the required registration statement is available for public inspection. Registration does not indicate U.S. government approval of the contents of this document. KEI is not engaged in the practice of law, does not render legal services, and is not a lobbying organization. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. While this monograph is part of the overall program of the Korea Economic Institute of America endorsed by its Officers, Board of Directors, and Advisory Council, its contents do not necessarily reflect the views of individual members of the Board or of the Advisory Council. Copyright © 2014 Korea Economic Institute of America www.keia.org Printed in the United States of America. ISSN 2167-3462 Contents KEI Board of Directors .......................................................................................................................... i KEI Advisory Council ............................................................................................................................ ii About the Korea Economic Institute of America ................................................................................ ii Preface ................................................................................................................................................ iv SOUTH KOREA’S TRIANGULAR RELATIONS Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Japan-South Korea-U.S. Relations Sue Mi Terry ......................................................................................................................................... 7 The Seoul-Beijing-Tokyo Triangle: Terra-centric Nordpolitik vs. Oceanic Realpolitik Sung-Yoon Lee .................................................................................................................................... 23 China-South Korea-U.S. Relations Gilbert Rozman................................................................................................................................... 43 Russia, China, and the Korean Peninsula Valery Denisov and Alexander Lukin .................................................................................................. 55 NATIONAL IDENTITY APPROACHES TO EAST AND SOUTH ASIA Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 74 Japan’s National Identity Gaps: A Framework for Analysis of International Relations in Asia Gilbert Rozman................................................................................................................................... 79 National Identity and Attitudes Toward North Korean Defectors Jiyoon Kim .......................................................................................................................................... 95 Bridging the Chinese National Identity Gap: Alternative Identities in Hong Kong and Taiwan Syaru Shirley Lin ............................................................................................................................... 113 Identity and Strategy in India’s Asia-Pacific Policy Deepa M. Ollapally ........................................................................................................................... 135 DIVERGENCE ON ECONOMIC REGIONALISM Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 152 Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Integration: U.S. Strategy and Approach Matthew P. Goodman ...................................................................................................................... 157 Japan and Regional Integration Dominoes: Golden Opportunity or Another Political Failure? Takashi Terada ................................................................................................................................. 171 Korean Bridge: Balancing Asian Economic Regionalism Between the United States and China Jin Kyo Suh ........................................................................................................................................ 187 China’s Choice: To Lead or to Follow on Asian Economic Integration Zhang Xiaotong ................................................................................................................................ 201 NEW THINKING ON DIPLOMACY TOWARD NORTH KOREA Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 218 South Korea’s Search for a New Diplomatic Strategy Toward North Korea: Trustpolitik as a Goldilocks Approach? Shin-wha Lee .................................................................................................................................... 221 What to Do about North Korea Mark Fitzpatrick ............................................................................................................................... 239 Purge of Jang Song-Taek and its Impact on China’s Policy Toward North Korea Zhu Feng and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga ................................................................................ 255 Contributors ....................................................................................................................................... 265 i | Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies KEI Board of Directors Sukhan Kim, Esq. Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld Dr. Won-ho Kim Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Dr. Yoon-Shik Park George Washington University Professor David Steinberg Georgetown University Officer The Honorable Donald Manzullo President & CEO ii KEI Advisory Council Chair The Honorable Stephen W. Bosworth Harvard Kennedy School Mr. Bradley Babson His Excellency Tae-sik Lee U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS Former Ambassador to the U.S. Dr. Claude Barfield Dr. Young-Sun Lee American Enterprise Institute Yonsei University Dr. John Bennett Dr. Wonhyuk Lim Former KEI President Korea Development Institute Dr. Thomas Cargill Mr. Paul McGonagle University of Nevada, Reno Consultant His Excellency Yoon-je Cho The Honorable Mark C. Minton Sogang University The Korea Society Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt Dr. G. Mustafa Mohatarem American Enterprise Institute General Motors Corporation Mr. Robert Fallon Dr. Chung-in Moon Phosplatin Therapeutics LLC Yonsei University Mr. Gordon Flake Dr. Hugh T. Patrick Perth USAsia Centre Columbia University The Honorable Thomas Hubbard The Honorable Ernest Preeg McLarty Associates Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI The Honorable James Kelly Dr. Mitchell Reiss EAP Associates, LLC Washington College Dr. Abraham Kim Mr. Alan Romberg The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Center Henry L. Stimson Center Mr. Andrew Kim Dr. Jeffrey R. Shafer Sit/Kim International JR Shafer Insight Mr. Spencer Kim His Excellency Joun-yung Sun CBOL Corporation Kyungnam University