Cascade Gateway Rail Study BNSF New Westminster, Bellingham and Scenic Subdivisions Final Report Prepared for: International Mobility and Trade Corridor Project (IMTC) Led by the Whatcom Council of Governments Prepared by: Wilbur Smith Associates Reebie Associates BST Associates Washington Infrastructure Services McElhanney Consulting Services Denver Tolliver December 20, 2002 Executive Summary CASCADE GATEWAY RAIL STUDY PROJECT OVERVIEW This study is a conceptual analysis of how congestion on the Cascade Gateway highway corridor might be relieved by diversions of truck and motor vehicle traffic to rail. The highway system consists of U.S. Interstate 5 and B.C. Highway 99. Paralleling these two highways is the main line of the Burlington Northern and Santa Fe Railway (BNSF). This rail line, known as the Cascade Gateway rail corridor, hosts a moderate amount of cross- border traffic today. Given its direct route, moderate speeds, and connections to other lines to major markets to the south and east, the 156-mile route between Seattle and Vancouver has the potential for attracting more highway traffic, thus the potential for relieving some of the congestion at Blaine. Accordingly, the purpose of this study has been to identify: x The truck traffic that could be attracted to the line (and thus diverted from the highway system). x The passenger traffic that could be attracted to the line (and thus diverted from the highway system). x The minimum capital investments needed to handle the train traffic increases due to highway diversions. x The economic and societal benefits that would result from the diversions. At the same time, the study investigated the potential for a cross-border commuter rail service operating between Bellingham and Vancouver, and an Amtrak station at Scott Road in Surrey. The latter would provide for a transfer to SkyTrain at Scott Road. HOW THE STUDY WAS DONE To accomplish these objectives, the study team performed six essential analyses. x Truck diversions and normal rail traffic growth. The team forecasted the cross-border truck traffic on the I-5/Highway 99 corridor at Blaine. The team then estimated the diversions that could be expected for the rail corridor, given assumptions of certain capacity and service enhancements. The key service improvement is initiation of truck competitive “high cube double-stack”1 intermodal services between Vancouver and Southern California. The diversions totaled about 2 trucks per hour in both the northbound and southbound directions in 2012. At the same time, the team forecasted the normal 1 These terms are defined in Chapter 2. 377000 CASCADE GATEWAY RAIL STUDY WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES Page ES - 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY growth of the line’s traditional carload business. This will increase more than 50 percent to 9.33 million tons in 2012 from 6.03 million tons today. x Motor vehicle diversions. The team forecasted the passenger trips that could be expected given the assumption of expanded Amtrak Cascades service between Seattle and Vancouver. The study assumed that these trips would be made otherwise by motor vehicles. With two additional round trips, total corridor rail passengers should be about 362,000 in 2012, up from about 137,000 today. x Capacity improvements. The team analyzed the minimum capacity improvements needed to handle the new freight (the truck diversions and the increase in carload business) and passenger rail traffic. Six specific improvements were identified; these total about $38.6 million. This total included vertical clearance improvements to handle high cube double- stacks on the route. However, there remain other vertical clearance obstructions for this traffic on the BNSF and UP routes to the south. (UP has the right to market rail service in Vancouver; BNSF provides haulage for UP between Vancouver and UP’s railhead in Seattle. Both railroads have routes between Seattle and Southern California.) x Diversion benefits. The team quantified the accident, congestion, energy, and air pollution savings that would result from diversions of truck and motor vehicle traffic from the highway system to the rail corridor. Annual benefits from these diversions could total as high as $2.7 million in 2012. x Commuter rail service. The team assessed the potential of a cross-border commuter rail service operating between Bellingham and Vancouver. The analysis identified a ridership potential of 288 daily passenger trips, a public operating subsidy of $1.1 to $2.4 million per year, and a minimum of about $35.5 million start-up capital. x Scott Road Amtrak station. Serving as a terminus for the Amtrak Cascades, this station would obviate the need for any capital improvements for passenger service between New Westminster and Downtown Vancouver. However, it would require Vancouver-bound passengers to transfer to SkyTrain. Preferences of Amtrak riders are unknown. Construction costs would total about $14.1 million. RECOMMENDATIONS The findings dictated the following recommendations: x Pursue the extension of the second the Amtrak Cascades train from Bellingham to Vancouver, perhaps as soon as 2004. Introduce a third train by perhaps 2008. The ridership potential appears to exist to justify this expansion. x Working with the BNSF and other freight rail operators on the line, identify and construct rail improvements necessary to support the second Amtrak Cascades train to Vancouver. These improvements would include the controlled siding at Colebrook and CTC between Blaine and Townsend. x Study the feasibility of eliminating all vertical clearance obstructions for high cube double-stack trains on the BNSF and UP rail lines paralleling I-5 between Seattle and Los Angeles. The cost for doing so is reportedly around $20 million. 377000 CASCADE GATEWAY RAIL STUDY WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES Page ES - 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY x There is no need of a commuter rail service between Bellingham and Vancouver (either Pacific Central Station or Waterfront Station). The ridership likely would be very low. At the same time, the required subsidy and capital improvements likely would be very high. x Survey Amtrak riders to determine their origin and destination patterns in Vancouver, as well as their interest in using a Scott Road station and a SkyTrain transfer. The survey would be crafted to test further the feasibility of an Amtrak stop or terminus there. 377000 CASCADE GATEWAY RAIL STUDY WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES Page ES - 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1 Introduction Purpose of the Study ..............................................................................................................1-1 Study Process.........................................................................................................................1-1 Agencies and Other Entities Consulted .................................................................................1-2 Chapter 2 Rail Freight Forecasts Introduction............................................................................................................................2-1 Rail Freight Forecast..............................................................................................................2-2 Chapter 3 Rail Passenger Forecasts Introduction............................................................................................................................3-1 Rail Passenger Forecast .........................................................................................................3-1 Other Passenger Services.......................................................................................................3-7 Chapter 4 Commuter Operations Introduction............................................................................................................................4-1 Commuter Operations............................................................................................................4-2 Summary................................................................................................................................4-5 Chapter 5 Capacity Improvements Introduction............................................................................................................................5-1 Cascade Gateway Capacity Issues and Solutions ..................................................................5-1 Summary................................................................................................................................5-14 Chapter 6 Scott Road Station Pre-Feasibility Analysis Introduction............................................................................................................................6-1 Scott Road SkyTrain Station..................................................................................................6-2 Possible Station Development and Linkage Concept ............................................................6-3 Passenger Convenience..........................................................................................................6-7 Transportation Service Provider Efficiencies ........................................................................6-10 Good Neighbor Relationships................................................................................................6-11 Implementation Challenges ...................................................................................................6-12 Peer Station Comparisons......................................................................................................6-12