CHINA- TAIWAN RELATIONS TAIWAN CAUGHT BETWEEN US AND CHINA DAVID G. BROWN, JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES KEVIN SCOTT General Secretary Xi Jinping maneuvered the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) into removing term limits so that he can lead China indefinitely. Beijing has increased pressure on Taiwan, but also rolled out new measures aimed at increasing Taiwan’s economic and social integration with the mainland. On Taiwan, pro-independence elements continue pressing President Tsai Ing-wen. The passage of the Taiwan Travel Act (TTA), which was generally welcomed in Taipei, created a new US-China controversy. The appointment of John Bolton as national security advisor and the Trump administration’s tariff and technology actions against China have renewed fears in Taipei that Taiwan will become a bargaining chip or suffer collateral damage in a US-China confrontation. This article is extracted from Comparative Connections: A Triannual E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations, Vol. 20, No. 1, May 2018. pp 61-70 CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS | MAY 2018 61 Xi Jinping consolidates control and sufficient capability” to defeat separatism in whatever form. The March National People’s Congress (NPC) removed term limits on China’s presidency, President Tsai’s policy clearing the way for Xi Jinping to continue leading China indefinitely. Statements at the President Tsai maintained a consistent cross- NPC concerning Taiwan adhered to the policy strait policy despite Beijing’s efforts to weaken line laid down at the 19th Party Congress detailed her stature. Like Beijing, she has adopted a soft in our last report. However, the main political and hard approach. She and her senior officials message in Xi’s new era, which was made call consistently for goodwill, increased clearer at the meeting, is that the Communist communication, and better relations, but Party must exercise leadership in every aspect of occasionally strike a defiant tone. In January, society. This underlines the growing political, Tsai said in a television interview that increased economic, and social gulf between Taiwan and pressure from China will only serve to unite the mainland. Taiwan. She identified three elements in achieving this: the president’s strong will, the The NPC announced appointments of personnel government’s ability to withstand pressure, and who will handle Taiwan issues under Xi. Most the people’s solidarity. She noted that were expected. Wang Yang was appointed experience proves that unnecessary chairman of the Chinese People’s Political compromises do not generate lasting goodwill Consultative Committee (CPPCC), the lead from China. In a speech in February, she said organization implementing the party’s united that her inaugural address remains her front work. Politburo Member Yang Jiechi will maximum expression of goodwill, implying that continue to coordinate policy from the Politburo. she will not bend on the 1992 consensus. On the Liu Jieyi was appointed the new minister in the softer side, in late April following the meeting in Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO). You Quan was Korea of Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un, Tsai said named to lead the party’s United Front Work that no Taiwan president would refuse to meet a Department (UFWD), replacing Sun Chunlan, Chinese counterpart – provided they can meet who was promoted to vice premier. Later, on an equal footing and without political former TAO Minister Zhang Zhijun was preconditions. appointed the new president of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS). In late February, Tsai reassigned several members of her cross-strait and foreign policy There has been considerable speculation about teams to new roles, most importantly the implications of the consolidation for Xi’s promoting Joseph Wu Jau-shieh from secretary leadership on Taiwan. The popular perception in general of the presidential office to foreign Taiwan is that China had chosen a “new minister. Wu was chairman of Chen Shui-bian’s emperor.” Commentators in Taiwan and the Mainland Affairs Council in 2004-2007 and mainland believe Xi’s consolidation will not Taiwan’s representative in Washington in 2007- change China’s Taiwan policy in the short term. 2008. He has been at Tsai’s side since she However, as Xi is a Chinese nationalist became DPP chair in 2014. David Lee Ta-wei, determined to see China unified, over the who had been foreign minister, took over as longer-term, assuming his leadership is secretary general of the National Security successful, Taiwanese expect that Xi will seek to Council; NSC secretary general Yen Teh-fa coerce Taiwan into unification. CCP Party became defense minister; and MAC Minister spokespersons have exuded confidence. Katharine Chang became chair of the Straits Outgoing TAO Minister Zhang Zhijun Exchange Foundation. acknowledged that in 2018 Beijing faces increasingly complicated challenges, but he Chen Ming-tong became MAC minister on expressed confidence in Beijing’s ability to March 18, returning to the post he held under overcome them. The immediate challenge that Chen Shui-bian in 2007-2008. Chen Ming-tong Beijing perceives comes from the Democratic is a “deep green” academic, but in one of his Progressive Party (DPP) and “separatist forces” first statements as minister he echoed Tsai’s promoting Taiwan independence. In his speech pledges to conduct cross-strait relations on the at the conclusion of the NPC, Xi told delegates basis of the ROC Constitution and the Act that China has the “firm resolve, full confidence Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area. He repeated 62 MAY 2018 | CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS this in April and added that maintaining the Beijing increases pressure peaceful status quo of cross-strait relations and ensuring regional security and prosperity in the Beijing has ratcheted up political, military, Asia-Pacific region are the administration’s diplomatic, economic, and social pressures to goals. induce the Tsai administration to accept the 1992 consensus on one China. In early January, Tsai has kept important DPP politicians in the Beijing unilaterally announced new airline flight fold. In April, Chen Chu, the popular mayor of routes in the Taiwan Strait. In 2015, Beijing and Kaohsiung, replaced Joseph Wu as secretary Taipei had reached agreement for its airlines to general of the presidential office. Tsai fly north to south along a route (M503) west of announced her support for the nomination of the median line in the strait. In January, without former premier (2006-2007), DPP chairman consultation, Beijing announced that its airlines (2012-2014), and occasional rival, Su Tseng- would fly south to north along this route and for chang, as the DPP’s candidate for mayor of New the first time permit its airlines flying this route Taipei City, Taiwan’s largest municipality, in to take side routes to and from three cities on the Nov. 24 municipal elections. the mainland coast in the strait. Taipei immediately protested, charging that the new Another leading DPP figure, William Lai Ching- routes posed serious safety and military te, continues to serve as Tsai’s premier. At the concerns and called for consultations. Beijing Legislative Yuan in March, he said Taiwan is a denied that consultations were necessary, “sovereign nation” and that it is unnecessary to claimed disingenuously that the International worry about China’s “unreasonable opinions” Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) had approved on Taiwan-US relations. At a freedom of speech the routes and proceeded to implement them. seminar in April, he repeated a previous statement that again provoked controversy With broad public support, Taipei repeatedly saying he is a “Taiwan-independence worker.” called for consultations, attempted to apply At a media roundtable later in April, he counter pressures, sought international support reiterated both assertions. The TAO branded and tried to engage ICAO. Washington expressed Lai’s statements as threats to peace and stability concern that the changes had been made and said that the DPP authorities bear without consultations, called for dialogue and responsibility for them, and later ascribed the contacted ICAO. Beijing parried all of Taipei’s comments as one reason for the April 18 live- efforts and did not budge from its position that fire drills (see below). Tsai tolerates Lai’s consultations would not be possible until Taipei occasional references to Taiwan independence, accepted the 1992 consensus. The controversy possibly seeing them as a pressure relief valve dragged on for almost two months. Beijing’s for pro-independence sentiments, and Lai has purposes seemed to include humiliating the Tsai acknowledged that cross-strait policy is the administration and underlining the costs responsibility of the president. Taiwan bears for refusing to accept the 1992 consensus. Fortunately, there have not been any But pressure on Tsai continues to build in other incidents on these routes, except once in April parts of the system. In early April, a new civil when weather required Chinese flights to fly society group, the Formosa Alliance, launched close to Taiwan-controlled Kinmen. an initiative to hold a referendum on Taiwan independence. Former presidents Lee Teng-hui In recent months, the PLA has conducted and Chen Shui-bian announced their support for increasingly complex military exercises around the initiative, along with New Party Power Taiwan. The Liaoning carrier group made several Chairman Huang Kuo-chang and others. These passages through the Taiwan Strait. In late supporters are well known but, with the April, the carrier group sailed to the east of exception of Huang, are marginal figures at this Taiwan returning to its home base after an point. Taiwan’s recently amended referendum exercise in the South China Sea. PLA aircraft law does not allow referenda on issues related to have frequently flown through the Miyako or sovereignty – a restriction that was supported Bashi Straits to conduct exercises in the western by Tsai Ing-wen.