NOT ALL’S FAIR IN LOVE AND WAR: DYNASTICISM AND COMPOSITE STATE LONGEVITY IN EARLY MODERN EUROPE Hiroaki Abe Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 2017 © 2017 Hiroaki Abe All rights reserved ABSTRACT NOT ALL’S FAIR IN LOVE AND WAR: DYNASTICISM AND COMPOSITE STATE LONGEVITY IN EARLY MODERN EUROPE Hiroaki Abe Some composite states, notably Poland-Lithuania and the Holy Roman Empire, outlived the Peace of Westphalia by over one hundred years. This is puzzling for the study of international politics because good theoretical reasons expect the multiple countervailing pressures acting on these states to have brought about a rapid decline and dissolution. In this dissertation, I propose a theoretical approach that satisfactorily accounts for why some composite states survived until the dawn of the Napoleonic Wars. The theory of dynasticism and dynastic deterrence argues that dynastic intermarriage and proximate kinship ties between dynastic rulers created deterrent effects that led to stability on the level of sovereign control. The most direct consequence of this theory is that hereditary monarchs with dynastic aims will tend to avoid waging wars of absolute conquest against each other, though wars of limited gains are not precluded. Given the inability of competing explanations—a reconstructed early modern realism and intergenerational leadership learning—to account for both the manner of survival and demise of composite states that lived till old age, it can be strongly inferred that dynastic deterrent effects ensured longevity by protecting such polities from facing conquest- attempts from other monarchs, the most serious existential threat these composite states could have faced. The reason that dynastic deterrence holds is because dynastic wives and families of origin play the role of hostages. The parental house of the dynastic wife will tend to avoid wars of conquest against the kingdoms wherein reside their daughters, and similarly dynastic husbands will avoid conquering the birth-dynasty of their wives. In addition, wars of conquest damage the reputation of the dynastic house of a monarch, and this in turn harms the marriage chances of dynastic heirs. Wars of conquest, then, act at cross-purposes with the ubiquitous motive of dynastic aggrandizement, which aims to uplift the power and prestige of the dynastic house, and were largely disdained (with some exceptions) by the rulers of ancien régime Europe. It should be noted that this dynamic did not hold in the colonies, but I do not attempt in this dissertation to answer the question of why. In the empirical case analyses, I use this theoretical framework to explain the early dissolution of two composite states (England-Scotland and the Iberian Union) when juxtaposed with other composite states that survived for longer in their same regions, and the longevity and eventual demise of two further composite states (Poland-Lithuania and the Holy Roman Empire) after weathering some near-death crises. Oft mentioned but rarely studied directly, dynasticism and dynastic intermarriage have been largely ignored by the field of International Relations. This is unfortunate, as the ties of marriage and kinship between early modern dynastic rulers represent a fertile source of theoretical insights and empirical material for testing contemporary theories and deriving puzzles. I hope this study will stimulate further research into this fascinating area. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF MAPS………………….……………………………………………………..…ii LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………………….iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS………………………………………………………………..iv INTRODUCTION: THE PUZZLE OF COMPOSITE STATE LONGEVITY………..…1 CHAPTER 1: APPROACHES TO COMPOSITE STATE LONGEVITY IN ANCIEN RÉGIME EUROPE………………………………………………………………………33 CHAPTER 2: THE EARLY DEATH OF COMPOSITE STATES……………………100 CHAPTER 3: THE THEORY OF DYNASTIC DETERRENCE…………………...…162 CHAPTER 4: EXPLAINING COMPOSITE STATE LONGEVITY………………….206 CHAPTER 5: UNANSWERED QUESTIONS & PRELIMINARY ANSWERS……..292 CONCLUSION: IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS................305 BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………………………………....328 i LIST OF MAPS MAP 1: Spain 1469-1714…………………………………………………………...….104 MAP 2: Counties and Major Burghs of Scotland……………………………………....119 MAP 3: The Partitions of Poland……………………………………………………….259 MAP 4: Territorial Changes of the Austrian Empire 1648-1795………………………275 ii LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: Ratio between the Number of European Kingdoms and the Number of Distinct Dynasties………………………………………………………………………181 TABLE 2: Invasions of Sovereign Territories During the Late Middle Ages and Early Modern Eras…………………………………………………………………………….204 TABLE 3: The Jagiellonian and Vasa Dynasties………………………………………220 TABLE 4: The Dynastic Ties Between Maria Amalia and Maria Theresa…………….245 TABLE 5: The Dynastic Ties Between Maria Josepha and Maria Theresa……………253 iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am extremely grateful to have received the mentorship of Robert Jervis throughout the course of my graduate studies at Columbia. From the beginning, he encouraged me to follow my curiosity wherever it led me, and while allowing me to chart my own course he nudged me in the direction of interesting questions and problems. His profound insights into the paradoxes and complexities of political behavior and history have been a constant inspiration, always prodding me to do better and look deeper for answers. Early in my doctoral studies, I was incredibly lucky to have had the chance to study with Kenneth Waltz, and his deep reverence for thinking theoretically about political questions as well as his strong personal encouragement were a great source of motivation and strength. My years as a graduate teaching assistant for Gerald Curtis were wonderful, as I had the opportunity to listen to a lifetime of experiences and insights in Japanese politics distilled into each lecture, and he really taught me the importance of understanding politics from the inside. He also gave me firm support when times were difficult, for which I will always be grateful. Michael Doyle is an inspiring thinker and pedagogue of international politics from whom I learnt much in class and individual discussions. His systematic approach to thinking through questions of international law and ethics disciplined my own thought and improved it immensely. I am deeply grateful for his kind support. iv Jack Snyder gave me some extremely perspicacious comments and suggestions on some later chapters of this dissertation, and Alexander Cooley and Dipali Mukhopadhyay were very kind in providing me with excellent suggestions for revision into a book manuscript during the dissertation defense. David Johnston, Andrew Nathan and Turkuler Isiksel gave me much needed encouragement and feedback at an early stage of the dissertation project, which was extremely helpful. Peter Bearman, Sudipta Kaviraj and Jean Cohen taught inspirational courses from which I gained profound insights into thinking constructively about political and social life. Andrew Arato, who was my mentor at the New School for Social Research, gave me many incredible opportunities while there and shaped my intellectual outlook in countless ways. Thank you for discovering me. At the New School also, Jose Casanova was a great inspiration. Sang-Jin Han, my mentor at Seoul National University, has done so much to shape me. I could not have become who I am without you and the life altering time I spent in Seoul. Tim Marjoribanks, my first intellectual mentor for my honors thesis written at the University of Melbourne, gratefully provided me with much sagacious advice and sure support as I was setting off on my journey from down under. Also at the University of Melbourne, John Rundell and Graeme Marshall kindled my philosophical curiosity and started me out on the path of intellectual discovery. I owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to Chunrye Kim for embarking on this American journey with me. You know how much you are responsible for my growth as a person. Thank you always. v My gang in the graduate program at Columbia kept me alive through the darkest days. Thank you Elham Seyedsayamdost for your wisdom and integrity, Mostafa Hefny for your brilliance and wit, and Kuei-min Chang for your ambition and optimism. I hope we can catch up soon over beers at Toast just like the good old days. Xian Huang always put me in good spirits with her positive attitude and impressive work ethic. I am grateful to Jonathan Cleveland and Solongo Wandan for innumerable stimulating discussions. Brooke Greene was instrumental in bringing me to Columbia. Ralph Elliott imparted to me at a young age a love of books and a love for the English Language, which made it all possible. Thank you Ralph for giving me the gift of the building blocks for an identity, the most awesome gift possible. My mother, Miwako Abe, has always believed in me and supported me. I will always be grateful for your incredible love and support, which has been truly remarkable. And last but not least, my companion in life Tara inspired this project. Thank you for always inspiring me to be better and to see things I could not see without your love. vi FOR TARA vii INTRODUCTION THE PUZZLE OF COMPOSITE STATE LONGEVITY In this introduction, we outline the puzzle of composite state longevity in ancien régime European politics in the period between the Peace of Westphalia and the French Revolution. The puzzle consists of why, after the supposed entrance of