Does Public Opinion Count? Tuition Fees, Student Support, and Public Opinion in Saskatchewan, 1991-2004 by Andrea D. Rounce A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario ©2010, Andrea D. Rounce Library and Archives Bibliotheque et 1*1 Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington OttawaONK1A0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-79617-7 Our rile Notre r6f6renoa ISBN: 978-0-494-79617-7 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library and permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par I'lnternet, preter, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans le loan, distribute and sell theses monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, sur worldwide, for commercial or non­ support microforme, papier, electronique et/ou commercial purposes, in microform, autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in this et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. Ni thesis. Neither the thesis nor la these ni des extraits substantiels de celle-ci substantial extracts from it may be ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement printed or otherwise reproduced reproduits sans son autorisation. without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne sur la Privacy Act some supporting forms protection de la vie privee, quelques may have been removed from this formulaires secondaires ont ete enleves de thesis. cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires aient inclus dans in the document page count, their la pagination, il n'y aura aucun contenu removal does not represent any loss manquant. of content from the thesis. 1*1 Canada ABSTRACT Democratic responsiveness posits that decision-makers should listen and respond to public opinion about policy issues when making public policy. While there is not always an apparent link between public opinion and public policy outcomes, this project proposes that public opinion does matter, and that we can gain a better understanding of the link between public opinion and public policy by looking at sixteen measures of public opinion, focusing on the provincial level, looking at the full policy process, and asking members of public policy communities what expressions of public opinion are important to them. By constructing a policy history and interviewing key people involved in university tuition fee and government student loan policy community in Saskatchewan between 1991 and 2004 (senior civil servants, ministerial assistants, deputy ministers, elected officials, journalists, public opinion researchers, university presidents, and student union representatives), I propose a clearer picture of their perceptions of the link between public opinion and public policy in this area, through the use of crosstabulation and significance testing. Their understanding of public opinion, the public policy process, and the role of opinion in policy-making relate to the value they place on public opinion in the formation of university tuition fee policies and government student loan programs during this time. Members of different policy community groups defined public opinion in different ways, including how they defined the public and how to measure public opinion. Government- commissioned polling was important, but other measures of opinion were also important. While most interviewees noted that there is a role for public opinion in policy-making, ii they emphasized its role at different points in the policy process. Convergence in public opinion and the salience of post-secondary education issues to the public were also important for policy actors. Finally, non-responsiveness was explained by a number of interviewees as a function of which public was most impacted by the policy decision, and as a product of a trade-off for limited resources. in ACKNOWLEDGMENTS My journey as a dissertationist has been long and winding, but not solitary. Many people have supported this research and personal journey along the way. I want to thank the members of my committee, Dr. Jon Pammett and Dr. Andre Turcotte, who provided important feedback and support throughout the process. I owe a great debt of gratitude to my Supervisor, Dr. Scott Bennett, who provided suggestions, a sounding board, and much-needed feedback throughout this process. His advice always came at exactly the right time, and was always helpful. The dissertation is better because of him. Accessing public opinion data was of key importance for this project. Thankfully, Wendy Watkins and her staff of the Carleton Library Data Centre and Marilyn Andrews and Raye Quickfall of the University of Regina's Data Library (formerly of the Government Publications Unit of the library) were there to help. POLLARA and Environics regularly deposit their polling data with Carleton's data centre, which is of key importance for academic researchers. Now if more governments would do the same, I would be even more thankful. Librarians at the Saskatchewan Legislative Library provided access to materials gathered in the course of their work that made constructing the policy history much easier. The University of Regina's Secretary made Board of Governors' minutes available, which helped in the understanding of university decision-making around tuition fees. Heather George, Michael Tesfarmariam, David Howland, and Ailesh Abrams all provided research and technical support around post-secondary education. I thank you all for your help! iv Thank you to the members of the Saskatchewan post-secondary education policy community who agreed to share their opinions and experiences with me. Without them, this research could not have been undertaken. Along the way, I have learned much from colleagues and friends about the nature of research, public administration, public policy, decision-making, post-secondary education, and the relationship(s) between public opinion and public policy. I feel privileged to thank Pam Smith, Warren McCall, Dan Perrins, Kathy McNutt, Ken Rasmussen, Greg Marchildon, Linda Smith, Jan Gray, Robert Johnson, Glen Bornais, Caroline Delany, Sparrow McGowan, Cathy Anstey, Rupen Pandya, Tracy Sletto, Tammy Bloor-Cavers, and Brady Salloum for inspiring me along the way. Tamara Rounce, Melanie Cullins, Elizabeth Friesen, Christina Stanford, Carla Hill, Tasha Hubbard, Anna Kim, Dawn Anderson, Kelly Abrams, and Murray Abrams all provided support when I needed it most. Thank you all! Thank you to my parents, Wendy and Harvey Rounce, who always believed in me. They taught me that seeking to explore, understand, and explain the world was an important endeavour; one which could occupy the rest of my life. My grandparents, Cliff and Bernetta Fysh, taught me that people and political life matters, and that it is important to stand up for what you believe in. These are important lessons, and I remember them every day. Ralph and Diana Ermel have consistently supported me throughout this journey, believing that I would make it through! I greatly appreciate the support, kind words, and the occasional yorkshire pudding. My husband, Robert Ermel, saw me through this whole project. Always my staunchest supporter, he knew that I would create something interesting. Despite living v in different provinces, managing multiple jobs, and some difficult times, Rob was always willing to read something, discuss ideas, or provide technical support; and he always made me believe that this work was important. Words cannot express how grateful I am for that support. This dissertation is dedicated to all of those students who sat out in the cold during the fight for the tuition fee freeze; those who presented briefs to the Standing Committees of Parliament and the Legislature; who saw their tuition fees (and debt levels) increase exponentially during the 1990s and into the 2000s; and for those who haven't considered attending a university because of the costs. VI TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv TABLE OF CONTENTS vii LIST OF TABLES xviii LIST OF FIGURES xx LIST OF APPENDICES xxiii INTRODUCTION: DOES PUBLIC OPINION COUNT? 1 Introduction 1 Problem 2 Purpose of the Study 4 Research Questions 4 Hypotheses 4 Overview of Methodology 6 Case Study 8 Data 11 Significance of the Study 14 Limitations 15 Limitations of the Public Opinion Data 15 Limitations of the Policy Community Census 16 Delimitations 17 Definition of Key Terms 18 Public Opinion 18 vii Public Policy 18 Public Policy Cycle 18 Policy Community 18 Post-Secondary Education Funding Policy 19 Outline of the Dissertation 19 CHAPTER TWO: CONCEPTUALIZATION AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 21 Introduction 21 Defining Public Policy 21 Who is Involved in Public Policy-Making? Policy Subsectors, the Policy Community, and Decision-Makers 24 Sub-Government: State Actors - Elected Officials 32 Sub-Government: State Actors - Government and Opposition Members of the Legislature 33 Sub-Government: The Civil