Climate change Prof. Petteri Taalas Secretary General WMO Petteri Taalas Secretary General of the WMO 2016-19, 2020-23 • Historical reform, enhanced efficiency: Integrated Earth observations, multihazard services • Engagement of private sector & academic sector, development & UN partnerships Director at the WMO Development & Regional Activities 2005-7 Director General of the Finnish Meteorological Institute 2002-15, 700 staff, ~80 M€/year • Doubling of external funding, tripling of scientific publications • Very high customer & staff satisfaction, best public sector organization in Finland • Modern weather, marine & climate services and atmospheric science Professor & scientist 1986-2002: climate, atmospheric chemistry, satellites, Arctic/Antarctica Chairman of EUMETSAT Council 2010-, 500 staff, ~400 M€/year • Effective management of Council meetings, New polar satellite programme (~1.5 B€) Univ. of Eastern Finland, Chairman of the Board 2009-15, 2800 staff, 15000 students, 260 M€ • Merging of two universities & a new semi-private administrative model Fortum energy company, board member 2014-16, advisory board 2011-, 11000 staff, 6100 M€ • Emphasis on low carbon energy solutions, business in ~10 countries PhD & MSc Helsinki Univ/meteorology, management training Uni. Pierre & Marie Curie etc. Military service at Naval Academy, reserve captain English, Finnish, Swedish, German, French, Russian 2019 global temperature: + 1.1°C increase 2016-2020 temperature anomaly relative to 1981-2010 Greenhouse gases: new records Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide CO2 CH4 N2O 66% of warming 17 % of warming 6 % of warming Lifetime >>100 y Lifetime 11 y Lifetime 120 y 407.8 ppm 1869 ppb 331.1 ppb CO2 emission drop by Covid-19 5 Ocean heat content highest on record Emissions-sea level rise 1800-2100 So far 26 cm rise Melting of global 31 glaciers 1950-2019 Largest changes in the Arctic Multi-year ice 1984 2016 Global precipitation 1986–2015 vs. 1901–1960 Uneven economic impact of current warming Impact of 1°C temperature increase on per capita output GDP Change % Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook 3 C warming is a major risk for food security Loss of crop yield in most parts of the world 12 Carbon emissions-temperature Arctic and global temperatures 1900-2100 Averaged over 36 global climate models RCP 4.5 (blue)= upper end of Paris COP21 Agreement , RCP 8.5 (red)= business as usual (modified from AMAP/SWIPA2017) CO2 emissions 1960-2017 Energy consumption 2000-2018 Consumption World total energy supply 1971-2018 Global CO2 emissions: land use/fossil energy 1850-2011 19 How to become carbon neutral by 2050? Wild fires contribute to CO2 emissions Arctic: summer CO2 emission highest since 2003 Bioeconomy perspectives • Changes in the use of fossil energy is the only way to stop climate change • It may be supported by enhancing carbon sinks, but the magnitude is very limited • The key forest sector challenge is to stop deforestation in the tropical rainforests. Second challenge is to prevent/control forest fires, which cause carbon emissions. • Main land use challenge is the fact that 75 % of farmlands are used for feeding cattle. A fraction of that could be used for forestation, if need for feed would be smaller. • One should avoid suboptimal solutions: e.g. if use of forest resources in Scandinavia would be reduced, the use would take place elsewhere = no net impact on global carbon sinks • Use of biomaterials in replacing cement, steel and plastic offer climate friendly opportunities 22 شكرا لكم Thank you Gracias Merci Спасибо 谢谢.