UC Berkeley Behavior Title Behavioral Assumptions in Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kq8q8d6 Authors Moezzi, Mithra Iyer, Maithili Lutzenhiser, Loren et al. Publication Date 2009 eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California Behavioral Assumptions in Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Prepared by: Principal Investigator and Primary Author Mithra Moezzi, Ph.D. Ghoulem Research Contributing Authors Maithili Iyer, Ph.D., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Loren Lutzenhiser, Ph.D., Portland State University James Woods, Ph.D., Portland State University Prepared for: CIEE Behavior and Energy Program Edward Vine, Program Manager California Institute for Energy and Environment 1333 Broadway, Suite 240 Oakland, CA 94612-1918 May 2009 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the California Public Utilities Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Commission or any of its employees except to the extent, if any, that it has formally been approved by the Commission at a public meeting. For information regarding any such action, communicate directly with the Commission at 505 Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco, California 94102. Neither the Commission nor the State of California, nor any officer, employee, or any of its subcontractors or Subcontractors makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability whatsoever for the contents of this document. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the contributions of the following people and thank them for having very generously shared their time and ideas: Ahmad Faruqui, Rafael Friedmann, Bruce Hackett, Jeff Loiter, Alan Meier, Mike Rufo, and Ken Seiden. We also thank the anonymous reviewers of the draft, the program managers Linda Schuck and Ed Vine of the California Institute for Energy and Environment, Jane Peters of Research Into Action, Inc., and the California Public Utilities Commission for funding this work. i Behavioral Assumptions in Energy Efficiency Potential Studies ii Abstract This paper is one of a series of white papers commissioned by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to address topics in energy use and behavior. It considers the behavioral assumptions in energy efficiency potential studies, and options for modifying and supplementing these assumptions, using recent California energy efficiency potential studies as the main example. Besides fulfilling planning and administrative roles as intended, energy efficiency potential studies present a statement on what energy efficiency programs can and should do, and even a template for thinking on the diffusion of energy efficiency and the future energy use of society. Such broader interpretations, of interest outside the utility planning community, transcend the original intended scope of the studies. An analysis of the behavioral assumptions of energy efficiency potential studies properly considers both what is expressed in energy efficiency potential studies on their own terms, as well as what these studies – and device-centered views of energy efficiency in general – miss. This paper addresses both the narrower and broader views of bottom-up energy efficiency potential studies. As to the narrower level, California energy efficiency potential studies explicitly consider behavior only as a matter of technology adoption. Technology adoptions are modeled as decisions based on cost-effectiveness, subject to the effect of generalized market barriers. Demand-side management programs are modeled as affecting adoption rates, both through financial incentives and through overcoming market barriers. The empirical data available to support these depictions of technology adoption are quite limited. Insofar as our analysis can surmise, the approach of current California energy efficiency potential studies is at least adequate for their intended purposes, especially given the limitations of modeling something as complex as future energy use. There are, however, modeling enhancements that could be made, data that could be collected, and differences between the modeled view and social scientific view of the problems that could be addressed – in particular, the degree to which energy efficiency programs can overcome market barriers. Some possible changes are suggested, along with research recommendations to support these changes. Rather than modeling enhancements per se, the chief behavioral concern is that the concepts of how energy efficiency works that are embodied in energy efficiency potential studies restrict how researchers and policymakers see the problem of future energy use, as well as solutions to the policy problems of the day. This broader interpretation of energy efficiency potential studies is especially important when the policy goal is reducing absolute levels of energy consumption and carbon emissions. Energy efficiency potential studies are only partially oriented to this question, but bring together many of the basic assumptions of the energy efficiency field. These assumptions link to a constellation of relationships among technology, behavior, physical and social systems, societal change, and energy use, much beyond utility demand-side management programs. This high-level view suggests that efforts directed to individual voluntary changes, and even mandatory changes at the level of isolated devices and structures, miss some of the most important determinants of societal energy use. Exploring these other levels and routes to influencing them can open new possibilities for reducing future energy use, as well as help to improve current energy efficiency program assumptions. iii Behavioral Assumptions in Energy Efficiency Potential Studies iv Table of Contents Executive Summary........................................................................................................I 1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................1 1.1 Scope and Strategy..................................................................................................2 1.2 Context for Energy Efficiency Potential Studies......................................................3 1.3 Purpose of Energy Efficiency Potential Studies .......................................................5 1.4 California vs. IOU perspective ................................................................................6 2. Narrower and Broader Views of Potential..............................................................8 2.1 Basic Structure of Bottom-Up Energy Efficiency Potential Estimation....................9 2.2 Assessing Behavioral Assumptions .......................................................................13 2.3 Broader Potential...................................................................................................14 3. Role of Behavioral Assumptions ..........................................................................21 3.1.1 Data ............................................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Usage ....................................................................................................................23 3.2.1 Averages versus Distributions..................................................................................... 24 3.2.2 Energy Price Elasticity................................................................................................. 25 3.2.3 Rebound and Other Post-Installation Changes in Use............................................... 26 3.2.4 Manual versus Automatic............................................................................................ 27 3.2.5 Measure Effectiveness & Persistence ......................................................................... 28 3.3 Measure Adoption.................................................................................................29 3.3.1 Details: California Energy Efficiency Potential Study Example .............................. 30 3.3.2 Theories on Why Energy Efficiency Investments are “Under” ................................ 33 3.3.3 Possibilities for Improvement ..................................................................................... 38 4. Prospects for Integrating Behavioral Conservation Measures ..........................40 4.1 BC Hydro’s Conservation Potential Review ..........................................................41 4.2 Residential Conservation Measures .......................................................................43 4.3 Commercial Sector Measures ................................................................................46 4.4 Beyond Behavior...................................................................................................48 4.5 Prospects and Difficulties......................................................................................49 i Behavioral Assumptions in Energy Efficiency Potential Studies 5. Quantitative Data on Energy Behavior .................................................................51 5.1 Information as Intervention ...................................................................................51 5.2 Reviews on Behavior-Centered Intervention..........................................................52 5.3 Why Collecting and Using Behavioral Data Is Hard ..............................................54 6. Technology Examples............................................................................................57