GREAT AUSTRALIAN BIGHT RESEARCH PROGRAM RESEARCH REPORT SERIES Knowledge integration of socio-ecological systems of the Great Australian Bight: Ecosystem Modelling Final Modelling Report GABRP Project 7.1 E.A. Fulton, S.D. Goldsworthy, C.M. Bulman. H.R. Pethybridge and P.J. Rogers GABRP Research Report Series Number 29 October 2017 DISCLAIMER The partners of the Great Australian Bight Research Program advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised that no reliance or actions should be made on the information provided in this report without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, the partners of the Great Australian Bight Research Program (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. The GABRP Research Report Series is an Administrative Report Series which has not been reviewed outside the Great Australian Bight Research Program and is not considered peer-reviewed literature. Material presented may later be published in formal peer-reviewed scientific literature. COPYRIGHT ©2017 THIS PUBLICATION MAY BE CITED AS: Fulton, E.A., Goldsworthy, S., Bulman, C.M., Pethybridge, H.R. and Rogers P.J. (2017). Knowledge integration of socio- ecological systems of the Great Australian Bight: Ecosystem Modelling. Final Modelling Report GABRP Project 7.1. Great Australian Bight Research Program, GABRP Research Report Series Number 29, 184pp. CONTACTS Dr Elizabeth Fulton CSIRO e: [email protected] Prof Simon Goldsworthy SARDI e: [email protected] FOR FURTHER INFORMATION www.misa.net.au/GAB GREAT AUSTRALIAN BIGHT RESEARCH PROGRAM The Great Australian Bight Research Program is a collaboration between PB , CSIRO, the South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI), the University of Adelaide, and Flinders University. The Program aims to provide a whole- of-system understanding of the environmental, economic and social values of the region; providing an information source for all to use. CONTENTS List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ......................................................................................................................................... vii Executive summary ......................................................................................................................... 1 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. 2 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 3 Objectives ................................................................................................................................ 4 An Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model of the Great Australian Bight: development and parameterisation .................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 6 Model construction ................................................................................................................. 6 Fishery data ................................................................................................................... 11 Commonwealth fisheries .............................................................................................. 12 Victorian fisheries ......................................................................................................... 13 South Australian fisheries ............................................................................................. 15 Western Australian fisheries ......................................................................................... 15 Description of data sources, methods and assumptions in parameter estimation .............. 17 Cetaceans ...................................................................................................................... 17 Pinnipeds ....................................................................................................................... 20 Seabirds ......................................................................................................................... 24 Elasmobranchs .............................................................................................................. 29 Teleosts ......................................................................................................................... 34 Invertebrates ................................................................................................................. 45 Primary producers ......................................................................................................... 57 Balanced model ..................................................................................................................... 61 Model fitting to time series (Ecosim) .................................................................................... 65 Temporal changes in GAB ecosystem ................................................................................... 68 Trends in biomass‐Status Quo ...................................................................................... 68 Trends in catch‐Status Quo ........................................................................................... 71 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 73 An Atlantis Ecosystem model for the Great Australian Bight: Development and Parameterisation 74 Atlantis Introduction ............................................................................................................. 74 Methods ................................................................................................................................ 75 Atlantis framework ....................................................................................................... 75 Geography, model extent and design ........................................................................... 75 Physical model .............................................................................................................. 76 Biological model ............................................................................................................ 79 Trophic connections ...................................................................................................... 80 Non‐trophic interactions, dependencies and processes .............................................. 81 ii Fishing model ................................................................................................................ 81 Model calibration .......................................................................................................... 82 Status Quo Atlantis run ......................................................................................................... 82 Scenarios ................................................................................................................................... ‐ 91 ‐ Introduction ...................................................................................................................... ‐ 91 ‐ Scenario descriptions ........................................................................................................ ‐ 92 ‐ Reporting ............................................................................................................................. 103 Model Trajectories ...................................................................................................... 103 Ecological Indicators ................................................................................................... 103 Statistics ...................................................................................................................... 103 Results ................................................................................................................................. 103 Scenario‐based shifts in ecosystem indicators ........................................................... 127 Discussion ............................................................................................................................ 129 Scenario comparisons ................................................................................................. 130 Future work to address gaps in knowledge ................................................................ 134 Concluding Thoughts ................................................................................................... 135 References .................................................................................................................................