Sunderland City Council and South Tyneside Council Impact Study International Advanced Manufacturing Park Topic Paper: Skills Issue | August 2015 This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party. Job number 240728-00 Ove Arup & Partners Ltd 13 Fitzroy Street London W1T 4BQ United Kingdom www.arup.com Sunderland City Council and South Tyneside Council Impact Study International Advanced Manufacturing Park Topic Paper: Skills Contents Page 1 Overview 1 1.1 Methodology 1 1.2 Key Assumptions 1 2 Workforce Implications of Advanced Manufacturing Development. 3 3 Expected workforce structure for the IAMP 4 3.1 Motor Vehicles 5 3.2 Advanced Manufacturing 5 3.3 Warehousing 6 3.4 Industry Mix Assumptions for IAMP 6 4 Current pattern of workforce journey to work movements 9 4.1 Overview 9 4.2 Share of Workers by North East Local Authorities 10 5 Distribution of workforce 11 5.1 Overview 11 5.2 Distribution of workforce by type of employee 11 6 Conclusions and Recommendations 15 Appendices Appendix A Baseline Characteristics | Issue | August 2015 Sunderland City Council and South Tyneside Council Impact Study International Advanced Manufacturing Park Topic Paper: Skills 1 Overview Sunderland and South Tyneside Councils are working jointly to secure the development of an International Advanced Manufacturing Park (IAMP) on land to the north of Nissan in Sunderland. The development will comprise of around 100 ha, suitable for uses within the automotive, advanced manufacturing sectors alongside distribution uses. The IAMP is expected to create in the region of 5,000 jobs on the site. This paper examines skills impacts and forms part of Arup’s assessment of the economic and housing impacts of the IAMP. The assessment will be used as part of the evidence base to inform the emerging development plans of the two Councils. 1.1 Methodology The purpose of this report is to report on finding concerning the skills demand and distribution associated with the development of the IAMP. The methodology used to review the skills implications of the IAMP has been as follows: Stage 1: Review the socio economic characteristics of the workforce associated with an Advanced Manufacturing economy based on a literature review. Stage 2: Forecast the expected workforce structure for the IAMP based on output from Stage 1 based on complete occupation; Stage 3: Review data concerning the current pattern of workforce journey to work movements (as a reliable predictor of future movement); and Stage 4: Distribute workforce in accordance with a distribution derived from Stage 3. As a precursor to establishing future skills demand for IAMP, a literature review has been undertaken to define how this sector is likely to drive skills demand. 1.2 Key Assumptions A key assumption is that current and future skills demands can be represented in terms of the socio economic major occupational groups as defined in 2010 classification system1. This assumption enables the use of a common set of descriptors for skills based on nine groups as a basis for understanding advanced manufacturing that can be linked back (eventually) to neighbourhood characteristics. It is further assumed that future demand for skills in advanced manufacturing can be represented by aggregating sector based skills forecasts produced by the Working Futures Project for the North East. Forecasts have also been extended by 1 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/classifications/current-standard- classifications/soc2010/index.html | Issue | August 2015 Page 1 Sunderland City Council and South Tyneside Council Impact Study International Advanced Manufacturing Park Topic Paper: Skills extrapolating trends established through the Working Futures Project from their end point to the expected completion of the IAMP. It is also assumed that current patterns of the workforce journey to work movements are reliable predictor of future journey to work movements and that no policy impediments exist to realising the accommodation of future workers at locations. This assumption effectively discounts the impact of planning policies in changing these patterns. A further key assumption concerns the use of the term “knowledge worker” as a means of describing a segment of the workforce considered relevant to the IAMP project. Peter Drucker, is credited with popularising the term ‘knowledge worker’ as long ago as 1968 (Drucker 1968). He argued, ‘Today the center is the knowledge worker, the man or woman who applies to productive work ideas, concepts, and information rather than manual skill or brawn…Where the farmer was the backbone of any economy a century or two ago…knowledge is now the main cost, the main investment, and the main product of the advanced economy and the livelihood of the largest group in the population’2. Despite drawback (in so far as it simplifies matters of great complexity), it is nevertheless a useful proxy measure. In the context of this paper, this convention allows the use small area occupational statistics and allows an understandable framework for classifying the survey of private workforce allowing baseline characteristics to be “joined up” with workforce characteristics. A further assumption is also made to deal with time. The analysis is based on looking at the IAMP at a fixed point in time when it is completed. This has the merit of allowing appreciation of the overall magnitude of effect on the workforce. However, there may be specific effects concerning the phased build out which are assumed to be neutral for the purposes of this Paper. 2 As quoted in http://www.theworkfoundation.com/assets/docs/publications/213_know_work_survey170309.pdf | Issue | August 2015 Page 2 Sunderland City Council and South Tyneside Council Impact Study International Advanced Manufacturing Park Topic Paper: Skills 2 Workforce Implications of Advanced Manufacturing Development. The literature contains a number of different definitions for advanced manufacturing, one of which states that it involves “the creation of integrated solutions that require the production of physical artefacts coupled with value added services and software that can also exploit custom designed and recognised materials and using efficient processes.3” A common theme running through reviewed literature is that “advanced manufacturing” involves a change in the manufacturing process from a traditional linear model based on design, materials conversion to fabrication through to one based on greater flexibility concerning the range of materials that can be used which can change the method of production. Advanced manufacturing is also associated with the deployment of a range of technologies including • nano-engineering; • additive/ precision manufacturing; • robotics/ adaptive automation; • design/ management of supply chains; • green manufacturing; • next generation electronics; and • continuous manufacture of pharmaceuticals/ bio manufacturing. A key theme is that “advanced manufacturing” is more consistent with the notion of a change in process rather than a discretely definable industrial sector as one might find in the Standard Industrial Classification4 code system (or a future update). The transition to “advanced manufacturing” has therefore been accompanied by a move towards a more educated workforce but often from an initial lower base. Skills based on the repetition of routine tasks are generally being substituted for by computer controlled systems suggesting a rising importance of non-routine interactive and non-routine analytical tasks relative to routine manual and non- routine manual. 3 De Weck,O and Reed, D “Trends in Advanced Manufacturing Technology Innovation” in the “Production in the Innovation Economy” edited by Richard M Locke ad Rachel Wellhausen – The MIT Task Force on Production and Innovation. 4 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/classifications/current-standard- classifications/standard-industrial-classification/index.html | Issue | August 2015 Page 3 Sunderland City Council and South Tyneside Council Impact Study International Advanced Manufacturing Park Topic Paper: Skills 3 Expected workforce structure for the IAMP A key issue for the study is to appreciate what the skills profile is expected to be when the IAMP would be completed and occupied which is assumed to be after the completion of the third phase in 20275. In order to do this, reliance has been placed on a third party forecasting model built to support the Working Futures project used by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills. This is a partnership venture supported by both Government and the devolved administrations to understand labour market trends and plan ahead for their implications. The latest iteration of the work covers the period 2012 to 2022 and was published in March 20146. Skills demands have been built into a regional forecasting tool of demand for skills and qualifications based on expectations of the future trajectory of the economy and specific sectors within that broader context. The selection of sectors considered to represent “advanced manufacturing” has been informed by a review of proposal documentation7. Skills demands are assessed by using an economic model of industrial demand and an occupation – industry matrix that converts the future growth prediction into demand for occupations (standard occupational categories). The economic projections make assumptions about