The future of ACP-EU relations: A political economy analysis FINAL REPORT JANUARY 2016 Contributors to the report This report was developed by a core team with targeted inputs from a broad range of ECDPM staff and external experts, including from the ACP. Core team: Jean Bossuyt, Head of Strategy at ECDPM Niels Keijzer, Researcher at the German Development Institute (DIE) Alfonso Medinilla, Policy Officer at ECDPM Marc De Tollenaere, Programme Associate at ECDPM Thematic experts: Junior Lodge, consultant Paul Goodison, consultant Carine Nsoudou, consultant Gemma Pinol Puig, consultant Zakaria Amar, Programme Associate at ECDPM Andrew Sherriff, Head of Strengthening EU External Action Programme at ECDPM Alisa Herrero, Policy Officer at ECDPM Cecilia Gregersen, Policy Officer at ECDPM ECDPM contributors: Geert Laporte, Deputy Director Kathleen van Hove, Senior Policy Officer Francesco Rampa, Programme Manager Anna Knoll, Policy Officer Hanne Knaepen, Policy Officer Helene Vanvolsem, Policy Officer Sahra El Fassi, Policy Officer i Table of Contents Contributors to the report ......................................................................................................... i Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ iv Acronyms and abbreviations .................................................................................................... v List of tables ......................................................................................................................... viii List of figures ........................................................................................................................ viii List of boxes .......................................................................................................................... viii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. x 1. Major changes since 2000 and how these have affected ACP-EU cooperation ....................... 1 2. The current state of the debate: trends and risks .................................................................. 4 3. The added value of a political economy analysis ................................................................... 8 4. The foundations of the partnership and its development ...................................................... 9 5. The rules of the game in the ACP group and its capacity for collective action ...................... 11 5.1. General operation of ACP institutions..................................................................................................................... 11 Formal and informal rules underpinning the operation of the ACP institutions ............................................. 11 The interplay between ACP institutions in practice: limited scope for collective action.............................. 16 5.2. Limited progress in intra-ACP cooperation .......................................................................................................... 17 The programming of intra-ACP funding ............................................................................................................................. 17 Joining forces: the experience of the ACP Inter-regional Coordination Committee ........................................ 18 5.3. The successful involvement of the ACP in the WTO .......................................................................................... 19 5.4. The ACP’s identity in international fora ................................................................................................................. 20 6. Rules of the game at the EU – How the ACP evolved from a privileged to a rather marginalised partner .............................................................................................................. 24 6.1. Rules of the game at the EU and their influence on the partnership with the ACP .............................. 24 6.2. Reviewing the Cotonou Partnership Agreement and EU actors’ interests .............................................. 26 6.3. Globalisation and regionalisation in EU external action: how do they affect ACP-EU relations? ... 30 6.4. The EDF and EU actors’ interests .............................................................................................................................. 31 7. The ACP-EU partnership in practice .................................................................................... 36 7.1. Political dialogue and shared values ....................................................................................................................... 36 The practice of political dialogue under the CPA............................................................................................................ 38 Conditionality under Article 96 of the CPA ........................................................................................................................ 39 Political dialogue in other EU partnerships with non-EU countries: how unique is the CPA? ................... 42 Concluding remarks ...................................................................................................................................................................... 44 7.2. Co-management of the EDF ......................................................................................................................................... 46 Co-management in practice: an often parallel, costly and conflict-ridden system ......................................... 46 Implications for the future ......................................................................................................................................................... 50 7.3. The joint ACP-EU institutions ..................................................................................................................................... 51 Joint Council of Ministers and Committee of Ambassadors ........................................................................................ 51 The dedicated joint institutions of the CPA ........................................................................................................................ 52 Joint institutions set up under the EPAs .............................................................................................................................. 55 ii 8. Limited ownership of the CPA beyond official parties ......................................................... 57 The CPA embraces the principle of participatory development ............................................................................... 57 Putting the principle into practice ......................................................................................................................................... 57 The political economy of participation under the CPA ................................................................................................ 59 9. Can the ACP-EU framework contribute to the provision of global public goods? .................. 62 Assessing the ability of the ACP-EU framework to deliver the 2030 Agenda ..................................................... 62 The ‘software’ of the 2030 Agenda is not compatible with the CPA’s rules of the game .............................. 66 10. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 69 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................... 76 Annex 1: Key Moments with Regard to Post-Cotonou in the Next Two Years (as per December 2015, subject to change) ......................................................................................................................................... 76 Annex 2: Summarised Methodology ............................................................................................................ 77 Annex 3: Selected indicators on the ACP group ........................................................................................... 79 Annex 4: Selected ACP trade and development statistics ............................................................................ 83 Annex 5: Structures and resourcing of the ACP Secretariat ......................................................................... 87 Annex 6: 11th EDF Committee votes, contribution keys and financial contributions by Member State ........ 90 Annex 7: Intra-ACP Envelope of the 10th EDF, in EUR mln ......................................................................... 91 Annex 8: Article 96 Consultation procedures (2000-2015) ........................................................................... 92 Bibliography .................................................................................................................................................. 94 iii Acknowledgements We would like to thank all those who agreed to share their views and insights with the authors of this study. They include EU and ACP staff, representatives of member states and institutions, independent experts and resource persons. This study would not have been possible without their generous and open contribution to the debate. Special thanks go to the Luxembourg Presidency of the Council of the European Union and the Permanent Representation, who kindly agreed