C O R P O R A T I O N China’s Long-Range Bomber Flights Drivers and Implications Derek Grossman, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Logan Ma, Michael S. Chase For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2567 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0083-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Since March 2015, China has conducted a series of long-range strategic bomber flights throughout the Asia-Pacific region, including over the South China Sea, near Japan, and around Taiwan. These flights have unsettled China’s neighbors and have amplified questions over Beijing’s strategy for handling sovereignty disputes. Chinese president Xi Jinping, newly emboldened by the elimination of term limits, has prioritized development of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) to transform it into a “world-class” and “strategic air force” capable of executing multiple strategic-level missions far from Chinese shores. Recent bomber flights are an actualization of Xi’s intent, with important consequences for U.S. interests in the region. The research reported here was commissioned by the United States Air Force and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of an FY2017 project on the growing reach of Chinese aerospace power. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force in December 2017. The draft report, issued on January 18, 2018, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii Figures ............................................................................................................................................. v Summary ......................................................................................................................................... vi Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... x Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................. xi 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Methodology and Sources ........................................................................................................... 6 2. Cataloging PLAAF Bomber Flights in the Asia-Pacific ............................................................. 7 Flights into the Western Pacific ................................................................................................ 13 Flights into the South China Sea ............................................................................................... 17 Flights Around Taiwan .............................................................................................................. 20 Flights near Japan ...................................................................................................................... 25 3. Drivers of Chinese Bomber Flights ........................................................................................... 27 Bombers in the Context of China’s Pursuit of a “Strategic Air Force” ..................................... 27 Taking a Cue from Russian and U.S. Models ........................................................................... 31 Win-Win Flights: Deterrence Flights Also Serve as Training Opportunity .............................. 35 Flight Evolution Suggests Planned Rollout ............................................................................... 37 PLAAF Use of Social Media for Internal and External Consumption ...................................... 38 4. Regional Reactions to Chinese Bombers .................................................................................. 45 Japanese Reactions .................................................................................................................... 45 Taiwanese Reactions ................................................................................................................. 47 Other Regional Reactions .......................................................................................................... 48 5. China Developing a Next-Generation Bomber ......................................................................... 50 Potential H-20 Capabilities ........................................................................................................ 50 A Stepping Stone: An Air-Refuelable H-6 ................................................................................ 52 Implications of the H-20 Strategic Bomber ............................................................................... 54 6. Implications and Recommendations for the United States ........................................................ 55 Appendix A. A Full List of PLA H-6 Long-Range Bomber Flights over Water .......................... 60 References ..................................................................................................................................... 67 iv Figures Figure 2.1. PLAAF Long-Distance H-6K Flights over Water Since 2015 ..................................... 9 Figure 2.2. Notional PLAAF Bomber over Water Flight Routes .................................................. 10 Figure 2.3. Chinese Conception of First and Second Island Chains ............................................. 11 Figure 2.4. South China Sea and Chinese Territorial Claims ........................................................ 12 Figure 2.5. PLAAF H-6K with Missile near Japan ....................................................................... 16 Figure 2.6. Taiwan IDF Fighter Intercepting PLAAF H-6K near Taiwan .................................... 22 Figure 3.1. PLAAF Bomber Long-Range Training Cycle ............................................................ 36 Figure 3.2. PLAAF Weibo Post of H-6K Flying over Scarborough Shoal ................................... 40 Figure 3.3. SCIO Twitter Post on H-6K Flying over Scarborough Shoal ..................................... 41 Figure 3.4. PLAAF Weibo Post of H-6K Flying Around Taiwan with Missile ........................... 43 v Summary Since March 2015, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has sent its strategic bomber—known as the Xi’an H-6K—on long-range over water flights on at least 38 separate occasions. These flights have covered important areas throughout the Asia-Pacific region. PLAAF bomber flights have gone past the First Island Chain, patrolled the South China Sea, and, more recently, have focused activities around Taiwan and near Japan. In this report we offer an in-depth analysis of the key issues driving top Chinese leaders to move in the direction of conducting these over water bomber flights. We find here that Chinese leaders seek to achieve at least four key objectives with PLAAF bomber flights throughout the region. First, bombers enable Beijing to send a deterrence message or to signal resolve in the conventional military domain to defend its maritime territorial claims, whether in the East China Sea against Japan, where Beijing claims the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, or in the South China Sea, where its claims conflict with those of a number of rivals, including the Philippines and Vietnam. Second, over water bomber flights significantly enhance realistic training for PLAAF operators—for example, by