LONDON BOROUGH OF NEWHAM TOWN CENTRE & RETAIL STUDY MARCH 2010 GVA Grimley Ltd 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR 08449 020304 www.gvagrimley.co.uk Reference: P:/Planning/643/02A928290 Contact: Caroline Marginson / Susie Rolls Tel : 020 7911 2551 / 020 7911 2349 Email: [email protected] / [email protected] www.gvagrimley.co.uk +44 (0) 8449 02 03 04 London Borough of Newham Town Centre & Retail Study, March 2010 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1 2. POLICY FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................................... 5 3. RETAIL HIERARCHY ....................................................................................................... 18 4. SHOPPING PATTERNS ................................................................................................... 41 5. MAJOR STRATEGIC CHANGE: NEWHAM .................................................................... 51 6. CAPACITY PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................. 64 7. THE LEISURE SECTOR .................................................................................................. 85 8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................ 96 London Borough of Newham Town Centre & Retail Study, March 2010 PLANS PLAN 1: COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE FLOWS TO COMPETING CENTRES PLAN 2: CANNING TOWN RETAIL STUDY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY AREA (2007) PLAN 3: NEWHAM RETAIL STUDY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY AREA (2009) PLAN 4: NEWHAM EXISTING SHOPPING HIERARCHY PLAN 5: NEWHAM EXISTING RETAIL WAREHOUSE PROVISION PLAN 6: A1 FOODSTORE PROVISION: LOCAL FOODSTORE MAPPING (LBN) PLAN 7: METROPOLITAN CENTRE GAP ANALYSIS PLAN 8: STRATFORD MARKET SHARE PRE-STRATFORD CITY (2007 SURVEY AREA) PLAN 9: STRATFORD MARKET SHARE POST-STRATFORD CITY (2007 SURVEY AREA) PLAN 10: NEWHAM SUB-AREAS PLAN 11: RETAIL FLOORSPACE COMMITMENTS PLAN 12: CHANGE AND GROWTH: LONDON BOROUGH NEWHAM PLAN 13: STRATEGIC TOWN CENTRE DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY SITES APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: NATIONAL RETAIL & LEISURE TRENDS APPENDIX 2: COMPETING CENTRE SHOPPING PATTERNS APPENDIX 3: CATCHMENT AREA PLANS APPENDIX 4: TOWN CENTRE HEALTHCHECKS APPENDIX 5: TOWN CENTRE SWOT ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY SCHEDULE APPENDIX 6: LOCAL INDEPENDENT AND ETHNIC RETAIL SHOPPING PATTERNS APPENDIX 7: STRATFORD CITY 2003 RETAIL IMPACT ASSESSMENT: IMPACT APPENDIX 8: CANNING TOWN 2007 RETAIL IMPACT ASSESSMENT: IMPACT APPENDIX 9: LB NEWHAM TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY: POPULATION APPENDIX 10: CONVENIENCE GOODS CAPACITY MODELLING APPENDIX 11: COMPARISON GOODS CAPACITY MODELLING APPENDIX 12: STRATFORD CITY ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS APPENDIX 13: LEISURE GAP ANALYSIS APPENDIX 14: ETHNIC SHOPPER BREAKDOWN BY MAIN CENTRE APPENDIX 15: RETAIL HIERARCHY CENTRE BOUNDARY PLANS APPENDIX 16: NEMS SURVEY METHODOLOGY London Borough of Newham Town Centre & Retail Study, March 2010 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 GVA Grimley is instructed by the London Borough of Newham to undertake a Town Centre and Retail Study to inform policy and development control decisions. The Borough is set to undergo an unprecedented level of regeneration, with major changes in the next 15-20 years including development in and around the Olympic Park and Stratford City, the Lower Lea Valley, Canning Town and the Royal Docks as well as major transport improvements such as Crossrail and further extensions to the DLR. Newham has a young and growing population, and is also one of the most ethnically-diverse London Boroughs. This Study is required to plan for and meet future need in the Borough, taking on board the diversity and growth envisaged. 1.2 The Council is currently in the process of preparing its Local Development Framework (LDF) which will set out the objectives to meet the Borough’s future economic, environmental and social needs through the spatial planning system. The purpose of this Study is to produce up-to-date evidence to support the realisation of these aims and will therefore inform ongoing work on the LDF, Supplementary Planning Documents (SPDs) and individual management plans for each town centre. This information will also be at the Council’s disposal to assist in the determination of relevant planning applications. Our work draws on three surveys focusing on retail and town centre issues in Newham and the wider sub-region. Survey Work 1.3 The decision was made between GVA Grimley and the client team to draw on robust household telephone surveys as the key evidence base data source (Methodology: Appendix 16). This accords with Best Practice as published by the Government. Telephone Surveys capture the shopping habits of households across a wide catchment area with the outer boundary defined to reflect the likely catchments of the Newham centres at the current time for ‘main’ shopping trips. The results also enable a deep understanding of the role of other centres within and outside Newham which function and compete alongside retail and town centre offer in Newham, i.e. trade leakage. In-centre surveys were not commissioned as part of this study, but could provide additional information in respect of more detailed ‘centre’ issues and a greater analysis of catchments and the inflow of expenditure. 2007 Telephone Survey 1.4 The 2007 Canning Town household survey was originally commissioned for the ‘Canning Town Retail Study and Vision’ prepared by GVA. The survey area comprised 12 Zones covering the full extent of Newham’s administrative area (illustrated on Plan 2), and achieved the target of 1,500 interviews. The survey provides detailed information on shopping patterns and is still considered relevant – despite the economic downturn – on the basis that they represent shopping destination choices and there has been little change in the retail environment in Newham since 2007; the results are also not directly linked to 1 London Borough of Newham Town Centre & Retail Study, March 2010 quantums of retail expenditure. These survey results have been used to underpin the convenience and comparison goods economic projections, as well as providing some further information on leisure destinations and behaviour. 2009 Telephone Survey 1.5 The 2009 Newham household survey (Plan 3) was undertaken by NEMS Market Research in September 2009. The overall objective was to add value to the commission and build on the results of the 2007 Telephone Survey, ensuring more targeted data collection on local independent shops and ethnic retailing, as well further insight into leisure destinations and behaviour and usage of the six main centres: Stratford, East Ham, Green Street, Forest Gate, Canning Town and East Beckton. 1.6 The survey achieved 1,000 interviews across 10 Zones which were broken down further into ‘sub-Zones’ to ensure more localised data and catchment area analysis in respect of independent shops and ethnic retailing. In order to ensure the household survey was sufficiently representative of the ethnic mix of residents across the Borough, an ethnicity quota was applied reflecting the 2009 ethnic profile data provided by the Council. This was largely achieved, ensuring a robust sample representative of the catchment population. The breakdown of ethnic shopper by preferred shopping destination (relating to the six main centres) is attached in Appendix 14. 1.7 The 2009 Household Survey sought to gain an insight into the function and usage of independent and ethnic retailers in the Borough. Respondents were asked if they spend money in local independent shops and ethnic retailers, and if so where do they go. For local independent food shopping, respondents were questioned about specific destinations for bread, meat, fish, dairy products and fruit and vegetables, and were able to provide up to three responses. The full set of results were merged to provide an aggregate understanding of shopping patterns for such goods which were then used to analysis shopping patterns and catchment areas across the Borough. 1.8 Respondents were also able to provide up to three responses for local independent comparison goods shopping, ethnic food shopping and ethnic non-food shopping. Again, the results were merged to provide comparable aggregate market shares. 2009 Business Survey 1.9 The 2009 Business Survey was undertaken by NEMS in late 2009. A hybrid survey approach was adopted involving a telephone survey carried out by NEMS together with self-completion questionnaires handed out by the Town Centre Managers (TCM) in Stratford, East Ham, Canning Town, Forest Gate and Green Street; with measures taken to avoid duplication. In total, 311 businesses across the six main centres were surveyed, including those from a wide range of retail, leisure and service outlets and including a mix of multiple, independent and ethnic retailers. 2 London Borough of Newham Town Centre & Retail Study, March 2010 1.10 Whilst there are no thresholds in terms of sample size to ensure robustness, the intention to achieve a representative sample across the centre from different types of business was achieved. There were some difficulties achieving the sample given busy retail businesses, and the process could be followed up with further work to achieve a larger sample if specific issues were highlighted as particularly important, including that of consultation and engagement. Methods could include town centre forums or business group discussions, for example.