A SPECIAL REPORT FIGHTING THE CRISIS Can the Obama administration get more high schoolers to graduate? A tale of three cities that are trying. Rod Morata special report CONTENTS Introduction A2 INTRODUCTION Can Obama reverse the dropout crisis? Can Obama reverse the dropout crisis? by Richard Lee Colvin New York City A4 By Richard Lee Colvin Big gains in the Big Apple. by Sarah Garland n his first address to Congress in February 2009, when the nation teetered on the brink Philadelphia A10 of economic collapse, President Obama declared that “dropping out of high school is no After decades of effort, Ilonger an option. It’s not just quitting on yourself, it’s quitting on your country—and a decade of progress. this country needs and values the talents of every American.” Since then, the administra- by Dale Mezzacappa tion has made a major commitment to increasing America’s high school graduation rate, which was once the highest in the developed world and is now among the lowest. Lead- Portland, Oregon A13 ing researchers now agree that 25 to 30 percent of students who enroll in American high schools fail to graduate. In many of the country’s largest urban school districts, such as All the advantages, Detroit, Cleveland, and Indianapolis, the dropout rate is as high as 60 percent, and rates and nothing to show for it. are similarly high in many rural areas. A generation ago, high school dropouts could still by Betsy Hammond join the military, or get work on assembly lines, and had a fair chance of finding their way in the world. President Obama does not exaggerate when he implies that today’s America has little use for dropouts and cannot expect to flourish so long as their numbers remain so high. This special report was made The administration has proposed nearly $1 billion in its latest budget specifical- possible with the generous support ly for the dropout problem. And it has already put $7.4 billion on the table, including its of (in alphabetical order) the Boston famous Race to the Top grants, which states and districts can get only if they agree to Foundation, Carnegie Corporation overhaul their worst-performing high schools. These are the 2,000 or so high schools that of New York, Nellie Mae Education Obama and Secretary of Education Arne Duncan refer to as “dropout factories”—schools Foundation, Spencer Foundation, that graduate fewer than 60 percent of their students and account for more than half the and William Penn Foundation. nation’s dropouts. This level of financial commitment to fixing America’s underperforming high schools is unprecedented. The 1983 Nation at Risk report, which marked the start of the modern era of education reform, did not so much as mention the dropout problem even as it called for higher graduation requirements. Between 1988 and 1995, only eighty-nine school Guest editor: Richard Lee Colvin districts won federal grants for dropout prevention programs. The No Child Left Behind Editor: Paul Glastris Act of 2002 applied mostly to grades three through eight. While it nominally required Publisher: Diane Straus Tucker states to hold high schools accountable for dropout rates, it ended up allowing them to Cover photo: Rod Morata lowball the problem. Generally, the thought among educational reformers has been to concentrate on preschool and grade school education, and hope that success there would result in better student performance in high school. Informing this approach was a not-unreasonable fear that by the time struggling students reached high school, there was little that could be done to turn them around. A To subscribe to the Washington Monthly, 1999 report found that what few federally financed attempts had been made to improve call (888) 238-0047 or e-mail teaching in high schools did not lower the dropout rate. A 2002 General Accounting Office [email protected] report summed up twenty years of federal dropout prevention efforts by noting that the Washington Monthly few that had been rigorously evaluated showed mixed results. Worse, even the occasional 1200 18th Street, NW success stories were not replicated. Washington, DC 20036 Which leaves a big question: Do we know enough today to make good use of a new phone: (202) 955-9010 massive federal commitment to lowering the dropout rate? One reason to think so is that there has been a data-driven revolution in our understanding of the problem. During the 1970s and ’80s and well into the ’90s, educators and social scientists at- tempted, without a lot of success, to discover the most important predictors of wheth- er a student would drop out or not. Mostly they wound up using known risk factors— A2A2 July/AugustJuly/August 20102009 special report such as extreme poverty, poor grades, and Those approaches fall into two general true. Dropouts and at-risk kids, especially contact with the juvenile justice and foster categories: fixing existing low-performing those in the city’s alternative schools, are care systems—to predict who would drop high schools, often by breaking them into coaxed into showing up in class, not chal- out and try, through mentoring and oth- smaller schools; and creating alternative lenged to actually graduate, and almost no er services, to keep them from doing so. schools and programs—“multiple path- adults are held accountable for results. (On Students who fit those categories were on ways,” in the jargon of the trade—that the expectations-and-accountability front, average more likely to drop out. But averag- cater to the diverse needs of those kids Philly is closer to the New York model, and es can be misleading, especially when there who are on the verge of dropping out or so is its level of success.) is great diversity around the mean. already have done so. All three cities also What do these three case studies In recent years, researchers have have very active civil sectors—business tell us about whether the Obama admin- gained access to “longitudinal” data—that groups, nonprofits, local and national istration’s efforts are likely to work? For is, information on the experiences of indi- foundations—which are playing central one thing, they suggest that success, if it vidual students as they progress over time. roles in the reform dramas, from spurring comes, will not be uniform, but will vary This research has yielded far more precise school officials into action to designing according to the quality of local leaders and indicators of which students are likely not and running alternative programs. the engagement of local civic actors. For to graduate. For example, while many ju- And yet despite these similarities, another, it confirms that school districts venile delinquents drop out, many do not. the three cities have had quite different can get the job done and ought to be held Yet if any child has a poor attendance re- outcomes. New York has achieved the responsible for doing so. “The problem is cord in ninth grade or fails to pass ninth- most impressive progress in lowering its too big and complex for individual schools grade English or math, the chances are dropout rate. Philadelphia has made real to handle on their own,” notes education overwhelming that he or she won’t gradu- if less dramatic headway. Portland, on the consultant Chris Sturgis. They also sug- ate, regardless of background or other ex- other hand, has seen zero measurable im- gest that the administration is on the right perience. The research also showed track with the policies it’s pushing, but much more variety among dropouts not totally so. The vast majority of the than experts imagined. Some have It is possible to funds the administration is making earned only a fraction of the credits move the needle on the available are for turning around ex- they would need to graduate, while isting, low-performing high schools others drop out only a few credits dropout problem, but (by bringing in new leaders, new shy of a diploma, largely because good intentions and teachers, or turning them into of outside events—a run-in with effort are no guarantee charter schools). This is the right the law, say, or a family emergency target, and one Washington has long requiring them to stay home with of success. neglected. But our reporting, as well siblings. Such granular information as much research literature, shows should make it much easier to craft the that turning around chronically low- right interventions for the right kids. provement. These results are almost the performing schools is awfully hard to pull opposite of what you’d expect. After all, off and will likely fail more often than et there is still a big difference be- New York and Philadelphia are much big- it succeeds. tween abstract knowledge and ef- ger districts with much higher concentra- By contrast, the administration is Yfective practice. What do we re- tions of poverty. putting relatively little money into the ally know about what has worked, and Policy choices can’t really explain creation of alternative schools specifi- what has not, in schools? To answer this the differences, since all three districts cally for students who have dropped out question, the Washington Monthly sent tried similar approaches. Rather, the ex- or are about to. This doesn’t make much reporters to three large urban school planation seems to lie in leadership and sense. Yes, alternative schools can easily districts—New York City, Philadelphia, attitude. The New York schools have had become dumping grounds for the hard- and Portland, Oregon—that have worked one very capable and driven chancellor, to-educate, as has happened in Portland.