The changing population of Manchester: A forward look Neil Bendel Public Health Specialist (Health Intelligence) Population Health and Wellbeing Team Key messages • The resident and registered population of Manchester are both forecast to grow substantially over the next 10 years • The rate of growth across the city is uneven and is higher in some age groups and neighbourhoods than in others • The older working age population (50-64 years) is forecast to grow rapidly and is a key target group for the delivery of public health interventions to prevent rising demands on health and care services • Inward migration is the key driver of population change • All parts of the health and care system need to have a common understanding of future patterns of population change so that MHCC and its partners are planning based on the same set of demographic assumptions Cohort perspective For the purpose of analysis, population of Manchester has been divided into 6 broad cohorts: • Preschool: 0-4 years • School age and first year students: 5-19 years • Younger working age: 20-49 years • Older working age/pre-retirement: 50-64 years • Older age: 65-79 years • ‘Oldest’ old age: 80 years and over For greater granularity, the figures can also be presented by single year of age. Historic change: 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses Comparison of Manchester and England current age distribution (mid-2016) Comparison of age distribution of resident (MCCFM) and GP registered population of Manchester (2017) Manchester City Council Forecasting Model (MCCFM) Estimated population, births, deaths and migration data for 2001 to 2037 available from ONS. However, figures are subject to: • time delay • level of uncertainty regarding migration • ward distribution can be unrealistic • projections only at local authority district level • projections only adjusted every 2 years Local model allows us to adjust the forecasts as soon as new data available, ‘tweak’ the calculations to adjust for migration, produce estimates for smaller areas than city level and add in known policy decisions to assist with planning services. Data are not routinely published - they are experimental statistics used for local purposes and may not accord with officially published estimates Forecast change in age structure, 2017 to 2027 Forecast population growth in One Team Neighbourhoods Mid-2017 Mid-2027 Forecast Growth One Team Neighbourhood No. % of city No. % of city No. % (total) % (annual) Ancoats, Clayton and Bradford 40,153 7.2% 56,485 8.6% 16,332 40.7% 4.1% Ardwick and Longsight 38,751 6.9% 46,249 7.0% 7,498 19.3% 1.9% Cheetham and Crumpsall 44,078 7.9% 52,250 7.9% 8,172 18.5% 1.9% Chorlton, Whalley Range and Fallowfield 48,236 8.6% 54,208 8.2% 5,972 12.4% 1.2% Didsbury, Burnage and Chorlton Park 61,739 11.0% 66,233 10.0% 4,494 7.3% 0.7% Fallowfield and Withington 30,937 5.5% 33,985 5.1% 3,048 9.9% 1.0% Gorton and Levenshulme 56,101 10.0% 64,467 9.8% 8,366 14.9% 1.5% Higher Blackley, Harpurhey and Charlestown 50,948 9.1% 56,950 8.6% 6,002 11.8% 1.2% Hulme, Moss Side & Rusholme 56,727 10.1% 66,088 10.0% 9,361 16.5% 1.7% Miles Platting, Newton Heath, Moston and 52,671 9.4% 79,016 12.0% 26,345 50.0% 5.0% City Centre Wythenshawe 48,536 8.7% 51,615 7.8% 3,079 6.3% 0.6% Wythenshawe and Northenden 30,654 5.5% 32,635 4.9% 1,981 6.5% 0.6% Forecast population growth by ward 2017-2027 Pre-school age children (0-4 years) • 43% increase between 2001 and 2011 – driven by international immigration and births to mothers born outside of UK • Much slower growth since 2011 – numbers forecast to fall after 2025 • Forecast to shrink as a proportion of total population from 7.6% in 2011 to 6.0% by 2027 • Mixed picture geographically - Increases in some neighbourhoods offset by reductions in others School age and 1st year students (5-19 years) • 4% increase between 2001 and 2011 – driven by ‘ageing on’ of pre-school children and rising number of HE students, particularly from Far East Asia • Lower than average growth in period up to 2010 but accelerating after 2011 – numbers forecast to continue to rise until 2027 • Forecast to grow as a proportion of total population from 18.4% in 2011 to19.2% by 2027 • Population forecast to grow in all 12 One Team Neighbourhoods ‘Younger’ working age (20-49 years) • 29% increase between 2001 and 2011 – driven by increases in young people in their 20s, immigration from EU8 and Asia plus reduced out migration • Slightly lower than average rate of growth after 2011 but numbers forecast to continue to rise until 2027 • Forecast to shrink slightly as a proportion of total population from 52.3% in 2011 t0 51.3% by 2027 • Larger than average growth in Ancoats, Clayton and Bradford and Miles Platting, Newton Heath, Moston and City Centre neighbourhoods ‘Older’ working age / Pre-retirement (50-64 years) • 9% increase between 2001 and 2011 – recovery in size of cohort following decline in 1980s and 1990s, resulting from manufacturing loss and out-migration • Lower than average rate of growth prior to 2011 but forecast to accelerate rapidly leading to sharp increase in numbers up until 2027 • Growth forecast in all 12 One Team Neighbourhoods • Underlines importance of public health interventions in 1960s ‘baby boomers’ approaching retirement Older age (65-79 years) • 17% fall in population between 2001 and 2011 – lower numbers in 2011 compared with previous censuses • Negative rate of growth prior to 2011 but forecast to gradually increase leading to slight increase in numbers from 2024 onwards • Growth forecast in all 12 One Team Neighbourhoods by 2027 with exception of in Ancoats, Clayton and Bradford and Miles Platting, Newton Heath, Moston and City Centre neighbourhoods ‘Oldest’ old people (80 years and over) • Static change between 2001 and 2010 – numbers falling by less than 1% a year • Continued fall in population in period from 2011 onwards driven by out-migration and higher mortality but slight growth in numbers forecast after 2024 • Forecast to continue to fall as a proportion of total population from 2.7% in 2011 to 2.0% by 2027 What will the age structure of the population look like in 2027? How do local and national figures compare? Components of change: Births, deaths and migration Non-UK born residents of Manchester by decade of arrival Live births to mothers born outside of the UK, 2001-2016 National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations to overseas nationals (2002/03 - 2015/16) Manchester CCG/PCT Registered List Size, 2006/06 - 2016/17 New Migrant GP Registrations, Mid-2005 – Mid-2016 Annual Rate of Change - Resident Population and CCG List Size 2005 to 2015 (Indexed to 2005) Manchester CCG/PCT Registered List Size and Forecast 2006/07 - 2026/27 Acknowledgements Data used in this presentation was compiled from a forecast produced in February 2017 using POPGROUP software developed by Bradford Council, the University of Manchester and Andelin Associates. Thanks are given to Elisa Bullen, Senior Intelligence Officer (Demography), Performance and Intelligence Team, Manchester City Council, for her help and advice with this presentation. .