South East and East of England Regional Air Services Study Stage Two: Appraisal Findings Report April 2002 South East and East of England Regional Air Services Study Stage Two: Appraisal Findings Report April 2002 Halcrow Group Ltd Vineyard House 44 Brook Green London W6 7BY Tel +44 (0)207 602 7282 Fax +44 (0)207 603 0095 www.halcrow.com Halcrow has prepared this report in accordance with the instructions of their client, for their sole and specific use. Any other persons who use any information contained herein do so at their own risk. © Halcrow Group Limited 2001 Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions Eland House Bressenden Place London SW1E 5DU Telephone 020 7944 3000 Web site www.dtlr.gov.uk The Queen’s Printer and Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, 2002 Copyright in the typographical arrangement rests with the Queen’s Printer and Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. 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ISBN 1 85112 530 2 Set of 2 documents 1)SERAS–StageTwo:AppraisalFindingsReport 2)SERAS–StageThree Report Printed in Great Britain on material containing a minimum of 75% post-consumer waste and 25% ECF pulp. April 2002 SERAS Stage One: Appraisal Findings Report Contents Amendment Record This report has been issued and amended as follows: Issue Revision Description Date Signed J 0 SERAS Stage Two 2/11/01 Appraisal Findings Report J 1 SERAS Stage Two 16/11/01 Appraisal Findings Report J 2 SERAS Stage Two 23/11/01 Appraisal Findings Report J 3 SERAS Stage Two 31/01/02 Appraisal Findings Report J 4 SERAS Stage Two 24/05/02 Appraisal Findings Report FL1124000.RCE.RP.J03.020131 Appraisal Findings SERAS Stage Two: Appraisal Findings Report SERAS - Stage Two: Appraisal Findings Report Contents 1 Introduction 2 1.1 Introduction to SERAS 2 1.2 Introduction to the Report 3 2 Background to SERAS 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 Policy Background 5 2.3 RUCATSE 6 2.4 Delay Standards 12 2.5 Comparison with Continental Airports 13 2.6 September 11th 2001 14 3 SERAS 15 3.1 SERAS Terms of Reference 15 3.2 Management of SERAS 17 3.3 Structure of SERAS 20 3.4 Supporting Studies 22 3.5 SERAS Documentation 27 4 Stage One of SERAS 28 4.1 Introduction to Stage One Options 28 4.2 Heathrow Options 29 4.3 Gatwick Options 37 4.4 Stansted Options 44 4.5 Luton Options 49 4.6 Cliffe Marshes Options 52 4.7 Other Options 56 4.8 Small Sites 61 5 Stage Two: Options and Packages 69 5.1 Options at Each Airport 69 5.2 Packages of Airport Options 72 5.3 Other Airports 73 i FL1124000.RCE.RP.J03.020131 Appraisal Findings SERAS Stage Two: Appraisal Findings Report 6 Stage Two: Appraisal Process 81 6.1 Introduction 81 6.2 Appraisal of Options and Packages 82 6.3 Capital Costs 83 6.4 Demand Forecasts 86 6.5 Safety Risk 94 6.6 Surface Access 95 6.7 Environment: Land Take 97 6.8 Environment: Water 108 6.9 Environment: Noise Impacts 109 6.10 Environment: Local Air Quality Impacts 114 6.11 Employment 117 6.12 Land Use & Urbanisation 118 6.13 Social Impact 121 6.14 Regional Impacts 122 6.15 Integration Impacts 123 6.16 Financial 124 6.17 Economic Appraisal 126 6.18Air Freight 132 2 6.19CO 134 7 Appraisal of Options at Main Sites: Heathrow 137 7.1 Options Appraised in Stage Two 137 7.2 Capital Costs 139 7.3 Demand Forecasts 143 7.4 Safety Risk 152 7.5 Surface Access 155 7.6 Environment: Land Take 171 7.7 Environment: Water 178 7.8 Environment: Noise Impacts 181 7.9 Environment: Local Air Quality Impacts 193 7.10 Employment 197 7.11 Land Use/Urbanisation 199 7.12 Integration Impacts 204 8 Appraisal of Options at Main Sites: Gatwick 208 8.1 Options Appraised in Stage Two 208 8.2 Capital Costs 209 8.3 Demand Forecasts 212 8.4 Safety Risk 219 8.5 Surface Access 221 8.6 Environment: Land Take 234 ii FL1124000.RCE.RP.J03.020131 Appraisal Findings SERAS Stage Two: Appraisal Findings Report 8.7 Environment: Water 241 8.8 Environment: Noise Impacts 243 8.9 Environment: Local Air Quality Impacts 252 8.10 Employment 256 8.11 Land Use/Urbanisation 257 8.12 Integration Impacts 261 9 Appraisal of Options at Main Sites: Stansted 264 9.1 Options Appraised in Stage Two 264 9.2 Capital Costs 265 9.3 Demand Forecasts 269 9.4 Safety Risk 277 9.5 Surface Access 279 9.6 Environment: Land Take 292 9.7 Environment: Water 300 9.8 Environment: Noise Impacts 301 9.9 Environment: Local Air Quality Impacts 313 9.10 Employment 316 9.11 Land Use/Urbanisation 317 9.12 Integration Impacts 320 10 Appraisal of Options at Main Sites: Luton 324 10.1 Options Appraised in Stage Two 324 10.2 Capital Costs 325 10.3 Demand Forecasts 329 10.4 Safety Risk 332 10.5 Surface Access 334 10.6 Environment: Land Take 344 10.7 Environment: Water 350 10.8 Environment: Noise Impacts 353 10.9 Environment: Local Air Quality Impacts 359 10.10 Employment 360 10.11 Land Use/Urbanisation 362 10.12 Integration Impacts 364 11 Appraisal of Options at Main Sites: Cliffe 367 11.1 Options Appraised in Stage Two 367 11.2 Capital Costs 368 11.3 Demand Forecasts 373 11.4 Safety Risk 378 11.5 Surface Access 380 11.6 Environment: Land Take 392 11.7 Environment: Water 406 iii FL1124000.RCE.RP.J03.020131 Appraisal Findings SERAS Stage Two: Appraisal Findings Report 11.8 Environment: Noise Impacts 410 11.9 Environment: Local Air5 Quality Impacts 415 11.10 Employment 418 11.11 Land Use/Urbanisation 419 11.12 Integration Impacts 423 11.13 Attracting Airlines to a New Site 426 12 Appraisal of Options at Main Sites: Alconbury 431 12.1 Options Appraised in Stage Two 431 12.2 Capital Costs 432 12.3 Demand Forecasts 434 12.4 Safety Risk 436 12.5 Surface Access 436 12.6 Environment: Land Take 438 12.7 Environment: Water Resources 438 12.8 Environment: Noise Impacts 438 12.9 Environment: Local Air Quality Impacts 440 12.10 Employment, Land Use and Urbanisation and Integration 441 13 Small Sites Summary 443 13.1 Introduction 443 13.2 Development Potential 443 13.3 Likely Demand 444 13.4 Air Freight 449 13.5 Impacts and Constraints 449 13.6 Airspace 450 14 Appraisal of Packages 458 14.1 Introduction 458 14.2 Core Package Demand Forecasts 460 14.3 Economic Appraisal of Core Packages 472 14.4 Financial Appraisal of Core Packages 478 14.5 Wider Economic Impacts 481 14.6 CO2 Impacts 486 14.7 Runway Size Sensitivity Tests 487 14.8 Opening Year Sensitivity Tests 491 14.9 Additional Runway Sensitivity Tests 495 14.10 Seeding Sensitivity Tests 497 14.11 Environmental Policy Sensitivity Tests 498 15 Air Freight 527 15.1 Introduction 527 15.2 Heathrow 529 iv FL1124000.RCE.RP.J03.020131 Appraisal Findings SERAS Stage Two: Appraisal Findings Report 15.3 Gatwick 530 15.4 Stansted 532 15.5 Luton 534 15.6 Cliffe Marshes 535 15.7 Alconbury 535 15.8 Interpretation of Forecasts 536 16 Airspace 541 16.1 Airspace Modelling in SERAS 541 16.2 Principal Findings 544 Figures in this Volume Chapter 4: Figures 4.1 – 4. 7 68 Chapter 11: Figure 11.1 430 Chapter 14: Figures 14.1 – 14.13 502 Figures in Other Volumes Chapter 7: Heathrow Airport Chapter 8: Gatwick Airport Chapter 9: Stansted Airport Chapter 10: Luton Airport Chapter 11: Cliffe Marshes Airport Chapter 12: Alconbury Airport Appraisal Summary Tables v FL1124000.RCE.RP.J03.020131 Appraisal Findings SERAS Stage Two: Appraisal Findings Report 1 Introduction 1.1 Introduction to SERAS 1.1.1 SERAS is the South East and East of England Regional Air Services Study, commissioned by Government. It complements equivalent studies into airports and air services in the other UK regions, which are being co-ordinated in RASCO, the Regional Air Services Co-ordination Study. SERAS and RASCO provide an appraisal of the physical dimension of future airports policy. Government’s consideration of future policy relating to airports and air services was set out in the consultation document The Future of Aviation. The Future of Aviation and the SERAS and RASCO Study Reports, and the results of consultation on their findings, will provide major inputs into the development of a forthcoming Air Transport White Paper. 1.1.2 A future Air Transport White Paper was first referred to in The Government’s White Paper on the Future of Transport ‘A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone’, July 1998.