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U.S. Military Information Operations in Afghanistan Effectiveness of Psychological Operations 2001– 2010 Arturo Munoz Prepared for the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity. The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Munoz, Arturo, 1949- U.S. military information operations in Afghanistan : effectiveness of psychological operations 2001-2010 / Arturo Munoz. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-5151-6 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Afghan War, 2001---Psychological aspects. 2. Afghan War, 2001---Propaganda. 3. United States—Armed Forces—Afghanistan. 4. Psychological warfare—History—21st century. I. Title. DS371.412.U16 2012 958.104'78—dc23 2011049898 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover photo by Staff Sgt. Samuel Bendet, U.S. Air Force. © Copyright 2012 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2012 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The U.S. Marine Corps (USMC), which has long recognized the impor- tance of influencing the civilian population in a counterinsurgency (COIN) environment, asked the RAND National Defense Research Institute to evaluate the effectiveness of U.S. military (USMIL) infor- mation operations (IO) and psychological operations (PSYOP) in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2010 based on how well messages and themes are tailored to target audiences. This monograph responds to that request. It should be emphasized that this report does not cover the significant changes in IO and PSYOP definitions, doctrine, orga- nization, and implementation in the field that have taken place since 2010. When the text refers to the present, or the current situation, it generally means 2010. This research was sponsored by the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (MCIA) and conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secre- tary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/intel.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction: Definition and Objectives of Psychological Operations in Afghanistan ................................................. 1 Background ......................................................................... 1 Overlap of Strategic Communication, Information Operations, and Psychological Operations ..................................................... 5 How This Monograph Is Organized ............................................16 CHAPTER TWO Methodology for Assessing the Effectiveness of U.S. Military Psychological Operations .................................................19 CHAPTER THREE Main Themes and Messages and Their Effectiveness......................31 The War on Terror Justifies U.S. Intervention .................................32 Propaganda Products Featuring 9/11 .........................................35 Propaganda Products Against Osama bin Laden and an Afghan Safe Haven ................................................................. 38 Coalition Forces Bring Peace and Progress ....................................39 v vi U.S. Military Information Operations in Afghanistan The Issue of Civilian Casualties .............................................. 40 Handshake Leaflets and Posters .............................................. 46 American and Afghan Families Juxtaposed .................................47 Good Times Have Returned to Afghanistan ............................... 48 Peace and Friendship ...........................................................49 Al-Qai’da and the Taliban Are Enemies of the Afghan People .............59 Multimedia Products Disseminating the Message That the Actions of al-Qai’da and Taliban Terrorists Are Un-Islamic .................. 64 Taliban Injustices and Atrocities ..............................................65 Leaflets Threatening Specific Taliban Leaders ............................. 66 Anti-Taliban Leaflets on Terrorist Training Camps ........................69 Monetary Rewards Are Offered for the Capture of al-Qai’da and Taliban Leaders .............................................69 Reward for Capture of Terrorist Leaders .....................................71 Osama bin Laden Matchbook .................................................73 Monetary Rewards Are Available for Weapons Turned In ...................74 Leaflets and Posters Offering Money for Weapons .........................75 Support of Local Afghans Is Needed to Eliminate Improvised Explosive Devices ........................................................... 77 U.S. Forces Are Technologically Superior ......................................79 The Afghan Government and Afghan National Security Forces Bring Progress and Security ........................................................82 Democracy Benefits Afghanistan, and All Afghans Should Vote .......... 86 Additional Themes ................................................................91 CHAPTER FOUR A Review of the Means of Dissemination in Psychological Operations ...................................................................95 Radio ...............................................................................95 Leaflets and Posters .............................................................. 99 Newspapers and Magazines .................................................... 100 Social Networking and the Internet .......................................... 102 Billboards ........................................................................ 103 Face-to-Face Communication ................................................. 104 Contents vii CHAPTER FIVE