A SPATIAL, TEMPORAL AND DETERMINISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMICS OF CONFLICT IN HAITI By JENS ENGELMANN A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2012 1 © 2012 Jens Engelmann 2 To my parents and my sister 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank God. I also thank my parents and sister for their encouragement and patience. I am grateful for Andres Garcia, and his persistent advice and support. I thank Dr. Sterns for his enthusiasm, and strong belief in me. Also, I want to acknowledge Dr. Mao for his willingness to be an outside member in my Master’s committee, and in his advice and guidance without I would have not been able to complete this thesis. I want to thank Dr. Burkhardt for the support and help he has given throughout my academic career. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 7 LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... 8 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... 10 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 13 Overview ................................................................................................................. 13 Motivation ............................................................................................................... 15 Problem Statement ................................................................................................. 16 Objectives ............................................................................................................... 17 2 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................... 19 A Brief Overview of Haiti ......................................................................................... 19 The Historical Context............................................................................................. 21 Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset ........................................................... 41 Country-level Studies of Violence, Conflict, and Civil War ...................................... 46 Disaggregated Studies of Violence, Conflict, and Civil War .................................... 68 3 TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL PATTERNS IN THE HAITI ACLED ............................ 87 Temporal Patterns in the Haiti ACLED.................................................................... 87 Simple Temporal Frequency Analysis .............................................................. 88 Exponentially Weighted Moving Average – Statistical Process Control ........... 90 Spatial Patterns in the ACLED Event Dataset ........................................................ 94 Analysis Structure ............................................................................................ 95 Simple Spatial Analysis .................................................................................... 96 Geographic pattern of conflict and violence in Haiti between 1997 and 2010 ........................................................................................................ 96 Geographic pattern of conflict and violence in Haiti for three distinct time periods ............................................................................................ 97 Geographic pattern of conflict and violence in Haiti for different event types ... 98 Spatial Autocorrelation - Global Moran’s I ........................................................ 99 Global Moran’s I Methodology ................................................................. 100 Global Moran’s I Results .......................................................................... 100 Local Moran’s I Methodology .......................................................................... 103 5 Mean Center and Standard Deviational Ellipse .............................................. 104 4 ANALYZING LOCAL PATTERNS OF CONFLICT IN HAITI ................................. 136 Disaggregated Study of Conflict in Haiti................................................................ 137 Determinants of Conflict in Haiti ............................................................................ 139 Population Size in a Given Location ............................................................... 139 Urban Population Percentage in a Given Location ......................................... 140 Male Population Percentage in a Given Location ........................................... 142 Adult Population Percentage in a Given Location .......................................... 143 Distance from Political Center ........................................................................ 143 Elevation Data in Haiti .................................................................................... 144 Border with the Dominican Republic .............................................................. 146 Departmental Capital in Haiti .......................................................................... 146 Distance to Route Nationale ........................................................................... 147 DHS Wealth Index Score................................................................................ 148 Statistical Analysis ................................................................................................ 151 Covariate Selection ........................................................................................ 152 Model Validity ................................................................................................. 153 Determinants of Conflict in Haiti for Various Time Periods ............................. 155 5 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION ...................................................................... 178 Summary of Results.............................................................................................. 178 Suggestions for Future Research ......................................................................... 181 APPENDIX A EWMA METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................... 184 B GLOBAL MORAN’S I STATISTIC ......................................................................... 186 C LOCAL INDICATOR OF SPATIAL ASSOCIATION– LOCAL MORAN’S I SCORE ................................................................................................................. 188 D MEAN CENTER AND STANDARD DEVIATIONAL ELLIPSES ............................ 189 E NEGATIVE BINOMIAL GENERALIZED LINEAR MODEL .................................... 191 LIST OF REFERENCES ............................................................................................. 192 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .......................................................................................... 201 6 LIST OF TABLES Table page 3-1 Simple temporal frequency analysis of Haiti ACLED ........................................ 109 3-2 EWMA statistic for Haiti ACLED ....................................................................... 110 3-3 ACLED event count for communes in Haiti between 1997 and 2010 ............... 114 3-4 ACLED event count for communes in Haiti between 1997 and 2002 ............... 115 3-5 ACLED event count for communes in Haiti between 2003 and 2005 ............... 116 3-6 ACLED event count for communes in Haiti between 2006 and 2010 ............... 117 3-7 ACLED event type distribution .......................................................................... 118 3-8 Spatial diffusion of protest in Haiti .................................................................... 118 3-9 Spatial diffusion of violence against civilians in Haiti ........................................ 119 3-10 Spatial diffusion of battles with no change of territory in Haiti ........................... 120 3-11 Global Moran’s I score forconflict in Haiti ......................................................... 120 3-12 Global Moran’s I score for types of conflict events in Haiti ............................... 120 3-13 Global Moran’s I for various time periods ......................................................... 121 4-1 Correlation matrix of covariates and dependent variable .................................. 162 4-2 Variance inflation factor .................................................................................... 162 4-3 Global Moran’s I score for residual of the negative binomial regression ........... 163 4-4 Determinants of conflict events in Haiti for various time periods....................... 164 4-5 Determinants of Conflict Events in Haiti for Various Time Periods ................... 165 7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 2-1 Political Map of Haiti. .......................................................................................... 86 3-1 Temporal frequency chart for Haiti Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset between 1997 and 2010. ..................................................................... 122 3-2 EWMA chart for monthly Haiti ACLED event data.