Demographic Study Public School Enrollments for Princeton Public Schools 25 Valley Road, Princeton, NJ 08540 Prepared by ~~~~~~~~~ SUNDANCE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~ Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Court Cherry Hill, NJ 08034-1701 Tel 856-755-0174 Fax 856-755-0176 E-mail: [email protected] March 24, 2017 Table of Contents Page Executive Summary i BACKGROUND Profile: Public School District and Map 1 History: Enrollment and Students per Residential Unit 2 Profile: Municipality 3 Private/Public Schools Comparative Enrollments 4 Technical, Choice & Charter Schools 5 GENERAL DEMOGRAPHICS Population Growth: Area, County and State 6 Population Growth: Constituent Municipalities 7 2010 Population by Age & Gender Pyramid 8 Comparative Populations by Age Group 9 Births: Annual Births by Municipality 10 Births: Annual by School District 11 NEW HOUSING IMPACT Historic Residential Permitting 12 Enrollment & Permitting Growth Comparisons 13 Future Residential Permitting 14 Public School Children from New Housing 1-5 Years 15 Public School Children from New Housing 6-10 Years 16 New Public School Children by School Assignment 17 METHODOLOGY Cohort Survival Projections Standard Methodology 18 Presentation of Grade Level Cohort Survival by Year 19 Housing Adjustment for Cranbury Township 20 Births & 8th Grade Enrollments for Cranbury Township 21 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS District Wide Enrollments by Year 22 Comparison of District Wide Enrollment Adjustments 23 Elementary Grade PK-5 Enrollments 24 Middle School Grade 6-8 Enrollments 25 High School Grade 8-12 Enrollments 26 Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization 27 Community Park Elementary 28 Johnson Park Elementary 29 Littlebrook Elementary 30 Riverside Elementary 31 Comparative Elementary 32 Kindergarten Enrollment 33 Time In District: 1, 2, 3 Years; 1 Year by Grade Level Org 34 1 Year for Elementary Schools 35 APPENDIX: 36 Cohort Survival Worksheets; Princeton & Cranbury Residential Multipliers i ~~~~~~~~~ SUNDANCE Princeton Public School District Demographic Study ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~ Executive Summary The Methodology used in projecting enrollments is the recommended method of the New Jersey Department of Education and is known as “Cohort Survival” or “Grade Level Progression”. The Princeton School District has a student population of 3,671 stu- dents in 6 schools, organized as 4) Grade PK-5 Elementary Schools, 1) Grade 6-8 Middle School, and 1) Grade 9-12 High School. In a 10-year history, enrollment peaked at 3,684 students in 2008, decreased 332 stu- dents over 3 years to 3,339 and has since increase over 5 years to3,671, just 13 students less than the 2008 peak. The number of students per occupied housing unit has steadily decreased from .223 in year 2000 to .189 in year 2015. The single Municipality in the School District is known as Princeton with a borough form of government in Mercer County, NJ. ,that was estab- lished in its current form on January 1, 2013, through the consolidation of the Borough of Princeton and Princeton Township. Private School enrollment runs approximately 16% at the Elementary level, 10% at the Middle School level, and 17% at the High School. The population in Princeton decreased Population Trends are such that the population decreased by 1,748 1,748 persons from 2000 to 2010. people (5.7%) from 32,230 in 2000 to 28,572 in 2010. However, the area population is estimated at a slight increase to 29,603 in 2015. Age & Gender Pyramids, with population counts in 5-year age group- ings, show Child Bearing Age groups to be comparably small; and that the Pre-school Age group is smaller in size than the 5-9 Age group. The Childbearing Age group is compar- Population by Age Group from 2000 to 2010 reveals increases in all atively small and significantly decreas- ing between the 2000 and 2010 census. categories except Pre-School and Childbearing age. In particular, Childbearing Age lost 1,851 persons between 2000 and 2010. Births in the district have been generally declining since year 2007 with Live Births on a school year basis have a high of 251 Births, to a year 2013 low of 174 Births. School Year been generally decreasing by 5 fewer Births, providing a better correlation to enrollments than Calendar Year birth per year, but increased in 2015. Births, are used in this projection. Historic Residential permitting averaged 55 units during the period 2005-2012, and jumped to 538 units in 2013 before returning to a more normal 20 units in 2014. Year 2015 permits jumped again to 379 units followed by a more normal 24 units in 2016 evidencing recent volatility. In the 5-year projection period, 664 Future Residential permitting includes 664 units at 8 developments in units of new housing will generate 186 a mix of market rate and affordable housing that are to be occupied in a Princeton Public School students. 5-year period of 2017 to 2021. 212 Public School Children (.280 per unit) will be generated by these 8 developments, of which 186 will attend the public schools. They are add- ed to the standard projection in the appropriate years and at the geo- In the 6-10 year projection, the Butler Tract, with a possible 350 units, could graphically appropriate schools, and is noted as Modification #1 to a generate an additional 120 public standard projection. school students. An additional 120 Public School Children might be generated in the extended projection period from 2021-25 if the proposed 350-unit Butler Tract housing is brought to fruition. ii ~~~~~~~~~ SUNDANCE Princeton Public School District Demographic Study ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~ Executive Summary Affordable Housing Allocations for Princeton have been recently been (re)ordered by the Courts. The final disposition is unclear, and their impact will be provided in an addendum. The Birth to Kindergarten Survival Ratio used in this projection is the average od the most recent 3 years rather than the standard 6 years. This is Modification #2 and is justified by the strong upward trend of the Ratio. Cranbury Township enrollments were also projected, including an ad- justment for new housing, and their decreasing 8th Grade enrollment is added to the Princeton projection before High School. This is a neces- sary Modification #3. District-wide Enrollment increased by 332 students in the historic pro- The District-wide 5-year projection is jection period to 3,671 students in 2016. In the projection period, the dis- for ±19 students around an average of trict enrollment will peak in 2017 at 3,836 students and then decrease to 3,814 students. 3,806, that is 135 more students than the end of the historic period. Elementary School Enrollment for Grades K-5 increased 85 students The Elementary School projection is for in the historic period ending at a peak of 1,338 students in 2016. Enroll- a peak of 1,438 students next year de- ments in the projection period, will peak at 1,438 students in 2017 and creasing 67 students to 1,371 in year then decrease to 1,371 at the end of the projection period. 2021. Middle School Enrollments, for Grades 6-8, increased by 43 students from a 2012 high of 738 to end the historic period at 762 students. Dur- Middle School enrollments continue to ing the projection period, enrollments increase by 77 students. To a peri- increase to a year 2021 level of 839 students, an increase of 77 students od high of 839 students. Enrollments continue to increase in the extend- over the current enrollment. ed projection period. By year 2019, enrollments are exceeding capaci- ties. High School Enrollments for grades 9-12, increased by 204 students to High School enrollments, that in- 1,571 at the end of the historic period. During the projected period, en- creased 204 students in the historic period, will peak at 1,656 students in rollments peak in 2018 at 1,656 and will then decrease to 1,596 in 2021. 2018, an additional 85 students, and During the extended projection period enrollments will begin to increase end the projection period at 1,596 in again. year 2021. iii ~~~~~~~~~ SUNDANCE Princeton Public School District Demographic Study ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~ Profile: School District Princeton Public Schools is a comprehensive community public school 1. Community Park Elementary district that serves students in pre-Kindergarten through twelfth grade 372 Witherspoon St from Princeton, New Jersey. Students from Cranbury Township attend Princeton, NJ 08540-3477 the district's high school as part of a sending/receiving relationship. 609-806-4230 The district administration building is at 25 Valley Road in Princeton. 2. J Witherspoon Middle School As of the 2016-17 school year, the district's six schools had an enroll- 217 Walnut Ln ment of 3,671 students. Princeton, NJ 08540-3484 609-806-4270 Residents of Princeton University's housing complexes for graduate stu- dents with families, are zoned to the district. 3. Johnson Park Elem. School 285 Rosedale Rd SOURCE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princeton_Public_Schools Princeton, NJ 08540-6705 609-806-4240 4. Littlebrook Elementary School 39 Magnolia Ln Princeton, NJ 08540-4013 609-806-4250 5. Princeton High School 151 Moore St Princeton, NJ 08540-3312 609-806-4280 6. Riverside Elementary School 58 Riverside Dr Princeton, NJ 08540-5425 609-806-4260 SOURCE: http://www.melissadata.com/lookups/MapSchool.asp ~~~~~~~~~ SUNDANCE Princeton Public School District Demographic Study 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~ Profile: School District Historic Data The 10-year history of enrollments exhibits a peak in year 2008, the last year in which NJDOE reported student counts in then separate school districts. The District experienced a decrease over 3 years of 345 students to a Enrollments began to increase after low of 3339 students in year 2011. That decrease was followed by a 5- year 2011, the first year of the 6 years year increase of 332 students to a recent high of 3671 students in Octo- of historic enrollments used in the pro- ber of year 2016.