SPACE POLICIES, ISS UES AND TRENDS IN 200 8/2009 Report 18, May 2009 Wolfgang RATHGEBER European Space Policy Institute 1 Report 18, May 2009 DISCLAIMER This Report has been prepared for the client in accordance with the associated contract and ESPI will accept no liability for any losses or damages arising out of the provision of the report to third parties. Short Title: ESPI Report 18, May 2009 Ref.: P23-C20490-03 Editor, Publisher: ESPI European Space Policy Institute A-1030 Vienna, Schwarzenbergplatz 6, Austria http://www.espi.or.at Tel.: +43 1 718 11 18 - 0 Fax - 99 Copyright: ESPI, May 2009 Rights reserved - No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without permission from ESPI. Citations and extracts to be published by other means are subject to mentioning “source: ESPI Report 18, May 2009. All rights reserved” and sample transmission to ESPI before publishing. Price: 11,00 EUR Printed by ESA/ESTEC Layout and Design: M. A. Jakob/ESPI and Panthera.cc Report 18, May 2009 2 Space Policies, Issues and Trends 2008/2009 T ABLE OF C ONTENTS Introduction 5 Chapter 1 – Global political and economic trends 6 1.1. Global economic outlook 6 1.2. Political developments 8 Chapter 2 – Global space sector – size and developments 14 2.1. Global space budgets and revenues 14 2.2. Overview of institutional space budgets 14 2.3. Overview of commercial space markets 17 Chapter 3 – Space policies and strategies around the world 27 3.1 Europe 27 3.2 European Space Agency 27 3.3 European Union 31 3.4 EUMETSAT 32 3.5 National governments 33 3.6 The United States 37 3.7 Russia 43 3.8 Japan 44 3.9 China 45 3.10 India 47 3.11 Emerging space actors 49 3.12 International sectoral comparison 52 Chapter 4 – European institutional market 57 4.1 European institutional features 57 4.2 Civilian space expenditure 58 4.3 European Space Agency (ESA) 58 4.4 EUMETSAT 60 4.5 National agencies 60 4.6 European Union (EU) 62 4.7 Security-related space expenditures 63 Chapter 5 – Space industry evolutions 65 5.1 Industrial evolutions in Europe 65 5.2 Industrial evolutions in the United States 67 5.3 Industrial evolutions in Russia 68 5.4 Industrial evolutions in Japan 69 5.5 Industrial evolutions in China 70 5.6 Transatlantic industrial comparison 71 5.7 Sectoral Overview 72 European Space Policy Institute 3 Report 18, May 2009 Chapter 6 – The defence perspective 83 6.1 Recent trends in military expenditure 83 6.2 Global space military context 83 6.3 Europe 84 6.4 The United States 89 6.5 Russia 91 6.6 Japan 91 6.7 China 92 6.8 India 93 6.9 Other selected space actors 93 Chapter 7 – The specific roles of institutions 95 7.1 European Union 95 7.2 Other European institutions 100 7.3 United Nations (UN) institutions 101 7.4 Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) 105 Acronyms 106 Acknowledgements 111 Report 18, May 2009 4 Space Policies, Issues and Trends 2008/2009 Introduction The European Space Agency (ESA) has The basic idea of the report has stayed the repeatedly tasked the European Space Policy same. It aims at describing the European Institute (ESPI) to conduct comprehensive space sector from different perspectives, studies on general issues and trends within accounting for the global context. The the space sector, covering consecutive 12- content provided was gathered by desktop month time frames each. These studies were research, expert interviews and specific input the bases of the subsequent ESPI reports from different bodies all over Europe. In any “Space Policies, Issues and Trends”. Up to case, the information contained is subject to now, the relevant timeframes extended from public accessibility. The basic structure of this July of one year to June of next year. For this year’s report is the one from the previous report, due to a different timing scheme of reports that was set up in 2007 and that ESA, the reporting period for policy events proved to be suitable and resilient. Minor and developments was shortened from July modifications are attributable to the different 2008 to February 2009. On the other hand, boundary conditions. business figures, budget numbers and launch statistics cover the calendar year from January to December 2008 for availability reasons. This twofold approach is analogous to the predecessor reports. European Space Policy Institute 5 Report 18, May 2009 Chapter 1- Global political and economic trends 2008 was marked by the financial crisis and burden for advanced economies importing its worldwide consequences, both in commodities, but had adverse consequences developed countries and emerging for exporting emerging economies. economies. Several ongoing trends were confirmed, such as the political and economic American and European authorities took rise of China, the resurgence of Russia on the extraordinary measures to stabilise the international scene and the limited growth of markets and support demand. State Western economies. Central transnational intervention was widely used as a regulating problems, such as climate change, the tool, on the background of growing criticism energy crisis or terrorism, remained at the of the neoliberal economic model and top of policy agendas. Finally, the election of pressure from the IMF. In October 2008, six Barack Obama as the 44th U.S. American central banks injected 180 billion U.S. dollars President unleashed new expectations about into the monetary markets in a concerted U.S. international policies. action.2 An emergency G20 meeting on the financial crisis in November ended up with a declaration of principles, but no concrete 1.1. Global economic decisions were taken. It was agreed to increase the transparency, the reliability and outlook the effective regulation of the financial markets, to improve the confidence in and for the markets, to increase international 2008 and the first half of 2009 were cooperation and to reform the IMF, the World dominated by the financial crisis. The world Bank and other financial institutions. economy witnessed its most dangerous Furthermore, the G7 finance ministers financial shock since the 1930’s. Global committed themselves to reject any kind of growth slowed substantially in 2008, whereas protectionist measure to fight the crisis energy and commodity prices remained very during a meeting in Rome in February 2009. high in the first part of the year. Many advanced economies were close to or moving The crisis affected every geographical area, into recession, while the growth in emerging and forced the governments to take adequate countries was also weakening. International measures. In the U.S., global activity Monetary Fund (IMF) projections on global declined sharply in the second half of 2008, growth kept being reduced during the last and households were put under severe months of 2008, and the world output was strains, while the budget deficit reached the estimated at 3,7% in 2008, compared to 5% historical pike of 400 billion U.S. dollars a in 2007. The projected global economic 1 year. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth for 2009 is 2%. growth rate was estimated at 1,4% in 2008, compared to 2,0% in 2007, and was The crisis, which started with the subprime projected to be around -0,7% in 2009.3 In mortgage collapse in the U.S. in August 2007, September, the Federal Reserve System reached its peak in September 2008, when the (FED) accorded direct lends to U.S. U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers corporations; in October, a 700 billion U.S. declared bankruptcy. The financial turmoil dollars bailout package was adopted and in rapidly spread to the real economy: the December, a 17 billion U.S. dollars diminished confidence of households had emergency loan for the car industry was negative effects on consumption and investment, and the weakening global demand reduced commodity prices. This lightened the 2 Those were the central banks from the U.S., Great Britain, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland and the European Central Bank (ECB) 1 International Monetary Fund “World Economic Outlook 3 For the following dates in this section, see: International Update: Rapidly weakening prospects call for new policy Monetary Fund “World Economic Outlook Update: Rapidly stimulus.” 6 Nov. 2008 weakening prospects call for new policy stimulus.” 6 Nov. 2008 Report 18, May 2009 6 Space Policies, Issues and Trends 2008/2009 announced. On 13 February 2009, the U.S. during that period. The export shock hit the Congress approved President Obama’s 787 country stronger than expected in the first billion U.S. dollars economic stimulus place, and the production of the automotive package, which intends to fight the crisis with and electronic industries was virtually frozen a mix of tax cuts and federal spending. in the beginning of 2009. European banks were put on exceptional Russia remained relatively untouched by the financial stress as they were exposed to the crisis until summer 2008, before being consequences of the U.S. financial crisis. This affected by the turmoil as well because of had macroeconomic repercussions, as the massive withdrawal of foreign assets from real GDP growth in Europe has stalled and the country. Being very dependent on oil and many countries were close to or into gas exports, Russia was also hit by the recession at the end of 2008. The GDP drastic decrease of oil prices in the second growth rate for the Euro zone was estimated half of 2008. The crisis spread to the real at 1,2% in 2008, which represents an economy, with rising unemployment and important decrease compared to the 2,6% of many oligarchs being close to bankruptcy.