The Owl of Minerva: Governing technology in the quest for sustainability by Dain Wesley Bolwell B.A. (hons) School of Social Sciences Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for Doctor of Philosophy (Society and Culture) University of Tasmania, October 2017 Statements and declarations Declaration of originality This dissertation contains no material which has been accepted for a degree or diploma by the University or any other institution, except by way of background information and duly acknowledged in the dissertation, and to the best of my knowledge and belief no material previously published or written by another person except where due acknowledgement is made in the text of the dissertation, nor does the dissertation contain any material that infringes copyright. Authority of access This dissertation may be made available for loan and limited copying and communication in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968. Acknowledgments, Associate Professor Fred Gale and Professor Richard Eccleston of this university, have unfailingly and inspirationally provided wise counsel during the research for this dissertation. I am very grateful to Dr Kerryn Higgs, fellow of the Club of Rome, for her insights on environmental politics. Dr Higgs graciously delivered a well-attended public lecture and seminar at my request through the Institute for the study of Social Change, and further supervised my research report on the Club for an associated qualification. My friend Kevon Kenna, exploration geophysicist, information technology practitioner and poet, I also particularly thank. He has been a sounding board, tough critic and source of inspiration throughout the past years. My wife, Adjunct Professor Rosalind Harvey (QUT), has been consistently enthusiastic, supportive and a source of insight and material important to this dissertation. To those academics and practitioners from around the world who have unfailingly and positively responded to my requests and visits I am indebted. These especially include Professor Will Steffen Australian National University (ANU) and the Stockholm Resilience Centre (climatology), Professor Tristan Perez, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) (robotics), Professor Clifford Shearing, University of Cape Town, Oxford and the ANU (law), Dr Gwynn MacCarrick, University of Tasmania and Dr Bronwyn Lay, European Graduate School (law), Dr Ken Chomitz, ex-World Bank (economics), Professors Tim Wootton and David Jablonski, University of Chicago (paleontology), Professor Barry Brook (ecomodernism) and Dr Alex Bissember (chemistry), both of the University of Tasmania, Dr Charles Benbrook, Washington State University (agricultural technology), Professor Ted Lefroy, University of Tasmania (ecology), Dr Stephen Duke, US Department of Agriculture (biology), Chris Vein, former White House advisor and World Bank executive (innovation), Dr Pushker Kharecha of the NASA Goddard Centre (nuclear power), Professor Robert Logan, University of Toronto (physics and the future), and Professor Keith Solomon, University of Guelph, (toxicology). Dain Bolwell, October 2017. i The Owl of Minerva: governing technology in the quest for sustainability Contents Statements and declarations ............................................................................................................... i Illustrations and tables ....................................................................................................................... iii Abstract .............................................................................................................................................. iv Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................. v Notes ................................................................................................................................................. vii Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................... 1 Part one. Sustainability and its elements Chapter 2. The concept of sustainability .......................................................................... 6 Chapter 3. Impact .......................................................................................................... 35 Chapter 4. Population ................................................................................................... 60 Chapter 5. Affluence ...................................................................................................... 76 Chapter 6. Technology ................................................................................................. 102 Chapter 7. Options ...................................................................................................... 130 Part two. Governing technology for sustainability Chapter 8. Technology and governance ..................................................................... 136 Chapter 9. Case study: Glyphosate ............................................................................ 162 Chapter 10. Case study: Nuclear-electric power .......................................................... 176 Chapter 11. Case study: Robotics and artificial intelligence ......................................... 191 Chapter 12. Case study summary ................................................................................ 201 Chapter 13. Alternative visions .................................................................................... 205 Chapter 14. Conclusion: the owl of Minerva ................................................................ 213 References ...................................................................................................................................... 216 ii Illustrations and tables Figure Title page 1 Dissertation structure 4 2 Alternative environmental discourses 11 3 Three shades of green 12 4 CO2 emissions EU, other countries, international shipping and aviation 23 5 Sustainability: bearable, equitable and viable 24 6 Factors of sustainability 34 7 Species with energy-intensive technology: population and energy per capita over time 36 8 Species with energy-intensive technology: population, energy per capita and planetary 37 forcing 9 Global impact of population, affluence and technology 1900, 1950 and 2011 39 10 Collapse of Atlantic cod fisheries off Newfoundland 43 11 Threatened species 45 12 Biodiversity: number of genera over time 46 13 Air pollution regulation 1948-1990s 49 14 Sources of carbon pollution 51 15 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector 51 16 Median carbon dioxide emissions by source of electricity generation 52 17 Global environmental indicators of unsustainability 56 18 Proposed planetary boundaries 57 19 Revised planetary boundaries 58 20 World population growth rates 1950-2050 61 21 World population projections 61 22 Online responses to review of The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History 73 23 Variables used to measure inclusive wealth 94 24 Examples of exponential growth 1750-2000 127 25 Common dimensions of governance across literature reviewed 142 26 Annual deforestation rate in the Legal Amazon, 1988-2014 155 27 Measures recommended to reduce IUU fishing 157 28 Six themes of the Sustainable Development Goals 158 29 Key points on technology and sustainability from Secretary-General’s report 158 30 Changes in glyphosate tolerances, US 170 31 Glyphosate: axes of contention 171 32 Twelve principles of green chemistry 173 33 Glyphosate and other market-led chemical technology governance across TAPIC criteria 175 34 Radiation exposure comparisons 178 35 Radiation dosage limits by international organisation 179 36 Human mortality rate per energy source 183 37 Total greenhouse gas emissions plus total cost of electricity by source 185 38 Europe and USSR: contamination from Chernobyl 186 39 Honshu: contamination from Fukushima 188 40 Nuclear power technology state-led governance across TAPIC criteria 190 41 Relationship between artificial intelligence and forms of data analytics 193 42 Robotics and artificial intelligence market-led governance across TAPIC criteria 199 43 Governance strengths and weaknesses of case studies against TAPIC criteria: summary 203 44 Ten most important technologies of the fourth industrial revolution 205 iii Abstract The Owl of Minerva: governing technology in the quest for sustainability Companion to the goddess of wisdom, the owl flies at dusk; understanding emerges only at the end of an era. Inspired by insights from both sides of the science and humanities divide, this dissertation surveys the terrain of sustainability before swooping upon our relationship with technology as key to its realisation. It assesses each element of the classic I=PAT equation and determines that humanity’s current trajectory is not sustainable. Because effective population (P) policy acts slowly, and because reducing affluence (A) is incompatible with human aspiration, only technology (T) might moderate human impact (I) to sustainable proportions. Building on a comparative analysis of three case studies on chemical herbicides, nuclear power, and robotics and artificial intelligence that identify significant problems with present governance approaches, this study outlines an alternative. Rejecting the attitude that technological ‘innovation’ and ‘disruption’ are unquestionably good and inevitable, it argues that if sustainability is to be realised, humanity must wrest back control over the