TREND BOOK 2019 SHOPPING CENTERS www.skivak.pl Poles love shopping. They visit shopping malls even several times a month. To buy? Not only. They also look and experience. What does the shopping center market look like at the beginning of 2019? How in the last years have the consumers changed? One thing is certain: the customers experience and emotions should be in the TABLE OF spotlight. Active on the market for 10 years, we study trends and analyze the consumers. We tell stories and build brand communication. Why shopping malls? Because here, in our opinion, will happen a lot. The situation is changing in front of our eyes, but the true revolution is still ahead of us. CONTENTS 1. MARKET ANALYSIS. PROSPECTS FOR THE INDUSTRY 4 2. TRENDS. SHOPPING CENTER MARKET 14 3. CHANGES IN THE CUSTOMER BEHAVIOUR. CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE 24 4. CHANGES IN THE CUSTOMER BEHAVIOUR. HOW DO POLES BUY? 28 We live in an interesting reality. 4. UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS. CHALLENGES FOR THE INDUSTRY 34 If you want to go with the times, you also have to be interesting. 5. ANALYSIS OF ONLINE COMMUNICATION. INTERNET IS GROWING STRONGER 56 And this is not easy at all. The report we have prepared is a summary of the 6. TRENDS. CONTENT MARKETING 68 changes that we all have opportunity to observe, but also - a comparison of the most interesting 7. TRENDS. COMMUNICATION 74 trends and solutions that will certainly affect the way of reaching to and communicating with the client. The research part concerning shop- ping malls on the Internet have been designed in cooperation with Sotrender and SentiOne. SKIVAK Team 2 MARKET ANALYSIS From the analysis of the CBRE report examining commercial real Paweł Hałabuda, SKIVAK expert estate industry in Poland, it appears that the shopping center market in our country is slowly saturating. In 2018, 430.000 sq m of shopping centers was opened, with the falling PROS dynamics of growth. On the one hand, the prospects for the industry are quite promising. On the other - the sector + % will have to face several challenges. 4 The shopping center market in Poland is slowly getting sat- urated- in the years 2014-2018 PECTS the supply grew by 4% annually in comparison to 8% per annum in the years 2009-2013. The cities with the highest space saturation with the commercial FOR THE space are Poznań, Gdańsk and Lublin. Thanks to the new investments, the supply in 2018 amounted to 430 000 sq m. In Poland, the modern commercial space is mainly created in the 8 larg- INDU est agglomerations. Warsaw domi- nates among them, where there are currently 47 objects with a total area THE LARGEST CITIES of 1.5 mln sq m (there is 598 sq m per DOMINATE- AS MUCH AS 1000 inhabitants). There are also the highest rents- the rental of prem- 66% OF THE NEW SUPPLY ises with an area of 100-150 sq m STRY HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED in the best locations can cost even IN THE 8 LARGEST 115-120 EUR/ sq m a month. AGLOMERATIONS. Table of contents / MARKET ANALYSIS. PROSPECTS FOR THE INDUSTRY 4 MARKET ANALYSIS IN COMPARISON TO THE WESTERN EUROPE, POLAND IN 2018, Opened in 2018, Forum Gdańsk STILLS IN THE 7TH POSITIONS WITH REGARD 21 NEW SHOPPING (62,000 sq m) perfectly fits into new TO THE NUMBER OF MODERN COMMERCIAL OBJECTS. CENTER OBJECTS consumer trends and expectations. WERE BUILT The facility combines a modern ur- AND 15 ban space with a place for shopping, WERE ENLARGED. entertainment and recreation. The first place belongs to Great Britain Due to the growing competition - new with more than 1,500 facilities and shopping centers that are opening, France, which has more than 1,200. tailored to the customers’ expectations The most shopping centers function - many branches already present on the subsequently in Italy, Germany, Spain market for a long time face the need for and the Netherlands. significant modernization. +21 Of the 15 largest shopping centers, up to 5 are located in Great Britain, including Trafford Center (Manchester) and Liverpool ONE. Currently, the situation of shopping centers is stable, which results, for Experts believe that in the case of example, in their ability to secure European shopping centers, the de- commercial space contracts. The sector has to face several challenges mand will remain unchanged. However, that may affect its turnover: the turn of consumers towards the so- Out of 420 buildings, the vacancy rate called fast fashion is relevant, shop- in shopping malls is currently only 5%, The growing popularity of shopping ping centers will therefore look for with the lowest in Warsaw, Wrocław streets: not only restaurants, but also balance between luxury and premium and Szczecin (around 3%), and the some brands will want to be closer brands and a more affordable offer. highest in Upper Silesia (around 6%). to consumers. Despite the falling number of new The growing importance of e-commerce facilities and the expansion of exist- and mobile commerce channels: users ing ones, new investments are still are more likely to buy online. planned, but the growth rate has fall- en by half - 4% annually in 2014-2018 The creation of projects with mixed compared to 8% annually in 2009-2013. office-service-commercial functions. Table of contents / MARKET ANALYSIS. PROSPECTS FOR THE INDUSTRY 6 MARKET ANALYSIS Atrium Targówek and Centrum Janki in Warsaw, and the Platan shopping MAŁGORZATA centre in Zabrze. Smaller cities with lower shopping centre density rates, weaker market competition and a very high purchasing potential are seeing DZIUBIŃSKA smaller convenience retail develop- ments targeted at local consumers. 4% Eight such shopping centres meas- ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, CONSULTING uring between 5,000 sq m and 11,000 AND RESEARCH, CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD sq m were developed in 2018. Together with extensions, approximately 20% of new shopping centre supply in 2018 was delivered in smaller cities. The Polish shopping centre market is mature with shopping centre den- sity remaining high in some cities. Poland’s average shopping centre density is approximately 280 sq m 3,2% THE POLISH per 1,000 inhabitants, still below the INVESTMENTS SHOPPING average for Western European coun- AND EXTENSIONS In 2018, developer activity focused CENTRE MAR- tries standing at approximately 330 Shopping centres continue to on both the largest cities, small- sq m per 1,000 inhabitants. It is worth dominate the Polish retail market, er cities and towns with a popula- KET IS MATURE noting, however, that Polish retail is accounting for nearly 75% of the na- tion below 100,000. Large urban WITH SHOPPING centred almost entirely on shopping tion’s total retail stock. At the end areas mostly saw completions of CENTRE DENSITY centres with a dearth of high street of 2018, Poland had 460 shopping medium-sized and large shopping REMAINING HIGH retail. By contrast, high street retail At the end of 2018, the average vacancy rate for centres totalling almost 11 million and entertainment centres, includ- in Western European cities is strong Poland’s eighteen biggest cities remained at a low sq m of floorspace. Last year, more ing Forum Gdańsk (62,000 sq m) in IN SOME CITIES and shopping centres very often com- of 3.1%. Vacancy rates, however, vary considerably than 270,000 sq m was delivered in the Tricity Agglomeration, Galeria plement high street offers. by shopping centre and strongly depend on the this format. Of that total, 85% was Libero (45,000 sq m) and Gemini Park attractiveness of a retail offer. Many leading retail completed in 12 new shopping cen- Tychy (36,600 sq m) in the Katowice schemes with a variety of retail, service, entertain- tres while the remaining portion of Agglomeration and Nowa Stacja ment and F&B options have no vacant space and the new supply came onto the mar- Pruszków (27,000 sq m) in the Warsaw premises vacated by tenants are quickly taken over ket through extensions of existing Agglomeration. In addition, increas- VACANCY RATES, HOWEV- by new brands. By contrast, shopping centres with schemes. Alongside upgrades and ingly popular mixed-use schemes ER, VARY CONSIDERABLY high vacancy rates are those where nothing has been redevelopments, this is one of key such as Centrum Praskie Koneser in done in the last six months to improve their appeal market trends in Poland, resulting Warsaw are being opened in phas- BY SHOPPING CENTRE or adapt their offer to a customer profile. This has from the ageing stock, changing cus- es. Several existing shopping cen- AND STRONGLY DEPEND an adverse effect on a shopping centre’s image in tomer expectations and ever strong- tres have been extended, including ON THE ATTRACTIVENESS the eyes of customers and results in lower footfall er competition. Atrium Promenada, Atrium Reduta, OF A RETAIL OFFER and sales, and more vacant space. Table of contents / MARKET ANALYSIS. PROSPECTS FOR THE INDUSTRY 8 MARKET ANALYSIS The pace of new shopping THE INTRODUCTION E-commerce is also expanding at centre growth is gradually a rapid pace. All market players OF SUNDAY TRADING are beginning to see more and slowing, which led to a 20% RESTRICTIONS WAS more benefits of both online and decrease in retail supply in ONE OF LAST YEAR’S offline platforms becoming inter- MARKET HIGHLIGHTS. twined and complementing each 2018 compared to the previ- other. The division of consumers ous year’s level. into online and offline shoppers is largely irrelevant as they are very often the same consumers. THE INDUSTRY SLOWS DOWN The rise of multichannel retailing More than 360,000 sq m of shopping and brand new concepts is only centre space is currently under con- natural in the modern technolog- struction or has a valid building permit; ically advanced world and helps approximately 270,000 sq m of that increase customer loyalty.