UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Kings, Queens, Rooks and Pawns: Deciphering Lebanon’s Political Chessboard A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction Of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Islamic Studies by Eric James Bordenkircher 2015 © Copyright by Eric James Bordenkircher 2015 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Kings, Queens, Rooks and Pawns: Deciphering Lebanon’s Political Chessboard By Eric James Bordenkircher Doctor of Philosophy in Islamic Studies University of California, Los Angeles, 2015 Professor Steven Spiegel, Co-Chair Professor Leonard Binder, Co-Chair This dissertation analyzes a fundamental and ubiquitous facet of Lebanese politics that has been relatively absent from scholarship — the strategic interaction that occurs amongst and between domestic and regional/extra-regional actors. In Lebanon’s complicated political landscape which individuals, political parties or countries are necessary for a political agreement, what makes these actors necessary for an agreement and how do they arrive at an agreement? To answer these questions and make sense of Lebanon’s intricate political space, my work employs an innovative framework of analysis, an adaptation of George Tsebelis’s veto players approach. Tsebelis’s framework provides an ideal way to trace and interpret the agreement-making process because it allows one to incorporate domestic and international politics. The veto players framework is utilized to examine four instances of agreement in Lebanese history that incorporated external actors: 1) the transfer of the presidency from Camille Shamun to Fuad Shihab in ii 1958; 2) the Cairo Agreement of 1969; 3) the Taif Accord; and 4) the Doha Agreement in 2008. An extensive analysis of these cases reveals two sets of findings. In regards to Lebanon, I argue that Lebanese politics fluctuates between a 2 and 3- veto player system. The oscillating of actors is attributable to the degree, acquisition and retention of veto power of an actor. Additionally, the foundation of Lebanon’s political stability has historically been understood as a modus vivendi between the Maronite Catholics and Sunni Muslims. As these cases have demonstrated, political agreement has never truly been between the leadership of the Maronites and the Sunnis. From a broader perspective I argue that the intra-confessional politics, not inter-confessional politics are critical for the arrival at an agreement. Furthermore, the international factor is crucial to the enhancement of a domestic actor’s power, so much so that we find only two exceptions. These findings are not only significant for comprehending Lebanon, but can provide insight into the political dynamics of other weak/failed states. iii The dissertation of Eric James Bordenkircher is approved. Richard Dekmejian Ismail Poonawala Leonard Binder, Committee Co-Chair Steven Spiegel, Committee Co-Chair University of California, Los Angeles 2015 iv Table of Contents Chapter 1: Making the Case for a Lebanese Political Chessboard………………….1 Chapter 2: Creating the Kings, Queens, Rooks and Pawns and Constructing the Lebanese political chessboard………………………………………………………….43 Chapter 3: No Victor, No Vanquished: Achieving Political Agreement in 1958 Lebanon…………………………………………………………………………………73 Chapter 4: Turning Beirut into an Arab Hanoi: The Cairo Agreement of 1969…………………………………………………………………………………….119 Chapter 5: Failure is Forbidden: The Road to the Taif Agreement……………….172 Chapter 6: The Doha Agreement…………………………………………………….242 Chapter 7: Towards Deciphering the Lebanese Political Chessboard…………….284 Bibliography…………………………………………………………………………..310 v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation is the culmination of a long journey. It first began at Boston College. Professor Benjamin Braude and Professor Raymond Helmick S.J. are responsible for nurturing my initial interest in the Middle East. I am indebted to Professor Wael Hallaq at McGill University for fine-tuning my writing and critical thinking skills. And I will be forever grateful to John Donohue S.J. and the late Robert Campbell S.J. for their invitation to Lebanon and subsequent support. They opened my eyes to a country that never ceases to amaze me. I must credit the co-chairs of my committee, Steven Spiegel and Leonard Binder, with their help in discovering and refining the topic of this dissertation. I am very appreciative for the support and encouragement from Professor Ismail Poonawala throughout my years at UCLA. And I must thank Professor Dekmejian for his guidance. I am deeply grateful for the assistance of colleagues and friends with this project: Dr. Chad Nelson, Dr. Amelia Gallagher, Fadi el-Halabi, Shady Ghosn, Steve Millier, Lena Dabaghy, Carla Chalhoub, Hassan Mortada, Dr. Dane Swango and Dr. Lawrence Rubin. I thank Magda Yamamoto and Professor Michael Morony in the Islamic Studies program. Last, but not least, I want to thank my family who has been with me on this journey from the start. My mother, father and my sister’s support has been tireless. None of this would have been possible without them. vi VITA EDUCATION McGill University/Institute of Islamic Studies Master of Arts in Islamic Studies Boston College Bachelor of Arts in History Focus on Middle Eastern History PUBLICATIONS “Kings, Queens, Rooks and Pawns: Towards Deciphering the Lebanese Political Chessboard.” Review of Middle East Studies Winter 2013 (47:2), 202-9. Invited Talks Lebanon, Syria and Iraq: Roots of Current Conflict Simi Valley, CA @ The Reagan Library Nov 1, 2014 Islamic Civilization & Societies Distinguished Boston, MA Lecture Series @ Boston College March 24, 2014 Papers Delivered at National and International Conferences “The Best Defense is a Good Offense: Hezbollah and the Pasadena, CA conflict in Syria” International Studies Association West (ISA West) Sept 27, 2014 “Failure is Forbidden: The Road to the Taif Agreement” Washington, DC American Political Science Association (APSA) August 30, 2014 “Reading the writing on the wall: Mapping Political Los Angeles, CA Geography through graffiti and posters in Lebanon” April 12, 2013 Presented at the Association of American Geographers (AAG) “Agreeing to kick the can down the road – the future of Washington, DC domestic politics in the Middle East?” Feb 21, 2013 Presented at the Middle East Dialogue Third Annual Conference “Between Scylla and Charybdis: Understanding the Washington, DC Dynamics of Lebanese Foreign Policy" Presented at the Oct 13, 2012 Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa (ASMEA) “‘No Victor, No Vanquished’ – Achieving Political Chicago, IL Agreement in 1958 Lebanon” Presented at the April 13, 2012 Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA) vii “A state of perpetual paralysis? The Lebanese Political San Diego, CA System after the Syrian withdrawal.” Presented at the Nov 21, 2010 Middle East Studies Association (MESA) “Elections without losers? The Lebanese Political System Washington, DC after the Syrian withdrawal.” Presented at the Association April 17, 2010 of American Geographers Annual Convention (AAG) “Strategy plus Structure: Comprehending foreign Monterey, CA intervention in the Lebanese milieu.” Presented at the October 16, 2009 International Security and Arms Control/International Security Studies Section (ISAC/ISSS) “Understanding Foreign Intervention in Lebanon: A Cross New York, NY Systems Model.” Presented at the International Studies February 18, 2009 Association Annual Convention (ISA) “Understanding Lebanon in International Relations Theory: Beirut, Lebanon An Exception to the Rules?” Presented as part of American February 12, 2009 University of Beirut’s Center for Arab and Middle East Studies Brown Bag Lunch Series “Islamists and a Pluralist Society: Hezbollah and Jama‘ah Washington, DC al-Islamiyyah’s Consociational Experience in Lebanon.” May 14, 2008 Presented at the 9th Annual Conference of the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy Fellowships 2011 Project on Middle East Political Science Travel Grant 2008-09, 09-10, 10-11, 12-13 Islamic Studies Fellowship Summer 2008 - Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship for Arabic 2007 Graduate Summer Research Fellowship 2004-2005, 2005-2006 Academic Year and Summer 2005 - Foreign Language and Area Studies viii Chapter 1 Making the case for a Lebanese political chessboard Introduction On 30 July 2010, Syrian President Bashshar al-Al-As’ad and Saudi King ‘Abdullah disembarked from the same plane at the Beirut International Airport. Their visit came at a critical time in Lebanese politics. Tensions were mounting between the Sunni-dominated March 14 political grouping and the Shia-dominated March 8 political grouping. The recent escalation in tension was attributable to the forthcoming indictments from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Created in 2005, the tribunal has been tasked with bringing to justice those responsible for the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri in February 2005. It was rumored that the imminent indictments targeted members of Lebanon’s only remaining militia and the largest Shia political party, Hizbullah. Hizbullah and its allies perceived the Tribunal as an instrument of Israel and the United States to undermine the party and its militia. For supporters of Hariri, particularly the Sunni community, the failure to carry out the indictments would be a miscarriage of justice for Lebanon and their revered former leader. The historic visit of the leaders of Syria and Saudi Arabia on 20 July would defuse the tensions and mark an attempt at reaching